Super Tuesday Results

Results are now beginning to come in:

• Georgia: Fox calls it for Newt Gingrich as expected.
• Virginia: After initially being close, Fox now calls it for Mitt Romney
• Vermont: Fox calls it for Romney.
• Ohio: Romney wins a squeaker in Ohio
• Massachusetts: Called for Romney
• Tennessee:  Called for Santorum
• Oklahoma:  Called for Santorum
• North Dakota: Called for Santorum
• Idaho: Called for Romney
• Alaska: Called for Romney

Dueling Tweets

Two different reactions to the same news:

Toby Harnden: Gingrich finally gracious in defeat: not speaking tonight.


Erik Telford: Gingrich will not be making any speech tonight. What a sore loser.

Newt just can't catch a break.

Yesterday Trump Was Going to Endorse Newt. Today It Could Be Mitt. Tomorrow Paul??

They should hold this press conference at Circus Circus:

We reported, along with the New York Times and the Associated Press among others, last night that Donald Trump is expected to endorse Newt Gingrich, according to sources around his campaign. The Times went first with the news in terms of national outlets.

What a difference 12 hours makes - Trump's endorsement is not likely to go to Gingrich, others said, and may in fact go to Mitt Romney when he makes his announcement at 11:30 a.m.

Matt Drudge, who has a relationship with top Romney officials, this morning - linking to our Gingrich story - was the first to indicate it would be Romney.

The endorsement of Romney would come after serious lobbying from some supporters of the frontrunner, according to several sources.

It would also make more sense, since Trump typically tends to like to go a with a winner.

Some are wondering if there's more Vegas politics going on than GOP politics. Sheldon Adelson, who owns the Venetian and the Palazzo, both within view of the Trump Vegas hotel pictured above, backed Newt with big bucks. Perhaps Trump backing Romney is a bit of a slap at his Vegas competition.

Newt Comes In First Loser in Florida, Starts Planning His Inauguration

Perhaps a bit premature.  These headlines from the Daily Caller:

2.) NEWT GETS PANHANDLED: Comeback kid Romney victorious in Florida

3.) LADIES' MAN? Women abandon Gingrich this time, by 22-point margin

4.) ROCKET MAN? Gingrich loses Florida's Space Coast

5.) MAN OF HIS WORD: After Florida defeat, Newt makes eight first-day WH promises

It would be nice if Romney would adopt some of Newt's first day in office ideas. Those were pretty good.

Mitt Won Across All Groups of Voters, and How Will a Wounded Gingrich Respond?

Some thoughts on both of those issues from the Morning Jolt:

Erick Erickson:

If I were a national Republican operative, I'd be very worried about tonight. If I were a Mitt Romney fan, I'd be ecstatic.

The Romney win in Florida was huge. He won the hispanic vote. He split tea party activists and evangelicals. He won where people live. Gingrich won the panhandle and largely tied in the few northern Florida population centers, but it was Romney's night.

He is on the way toward the nomination. The fat lady is warming up. But it is not a done deal yet. He still has a fractured base and lost the heart of the base. He has trouble with tea party activists and evangelicals though he roughly tied with Gingrich in capturing their support, and he has trouble with strong conservatives. Nonetheless, his get out the vote operation was a phenomenal success and the 15 to 1 advertising ratio in his favor clinched it for him. . . .

It is worth nothing that in the last week of the race only 0.1% of advertising was pro-Romney and roughly 70% was anti-Gingrich.

Our Robert Costa wonders if Romney's negative ads enraged Gingrich so much that Romney's top rival now has no other desire than vengeance:

Remember, in Florida, Team Romney didn't just knock Gingrich; they aired an ad that selectively documented the Georgian's past. Citing ethics allegations, they tarred Gingrich as a "disgraced" speaker, but they neglected to mention that Gingrich was later exonerated by the IRS.

The Sunshine State slams kept coming. Gingrich's work for Freddie Mac as a "historian," enough to sour any Florida homeowner, was complemented by 30-second spots calling Gingrich "chaotic" and "unreliable." On the stump, Romney called Gingrich a "pinball machine." At debates he called him an "influence peddler."

"When attacked, you have to respond," Romney explained earlier today. "It would be wonderful if campaigns were nothing but positive, but that's certainly not the reality."

One can argue whether those actions were "negative" or fair punches in a rough-and-tumble contest. But as the primary moves west and the field remains the same, the consequences of Romney's Florida brawl are unpredictable. 

If Romney isn't careful, a wounded, bloodied Gingrich may be more dangerous than a slow Gingrich fade.

Mitt certainly seems to have a better get out the vote effort than John McCain ever had, and that could really pay off in November when he has to battle the Obama effort that will be paid for and managed by the unions. Organization is a big deal in a national campaign and so far Romney seems to have a pretty good one.

Newt's path to the nomination is now pretty much gone and the only thing he has left is tearing down Romney.  That might make Romney a tougher candidate in the long run, but it also will undermine Romney's support with the conservative base, a group that's already troubled by his candidacy.  Romney did win the conservative vote in Florida, and maybe he's got more strength with them than we realize right now.

How Did Romney Win and Gingrich Lose in Florida?

Byron York does the analysis:

Coming off a decisive loss to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, Mitt Romney needed to do three things to win the Florida primary: 1) attack Gingrich with a level of ferocity not yet seen in the already-contentious Republican presidential campaign; 2) raise the level of his performance in debate; and 3) improve his on-the-stump message to give voters more substance and fewer platitudes.

For his part, Gingrich had two must-dos: 1) deal with Romney's attacks in a calmer, more seasoned way than Gingrich handled the last Romney barrage, during the campaign in Iowa; and 2) keep up the solid message he rode to victory in South Carolina.

Over the past week in Florida, Romney did nearly everything right; his ads hit hard and his debate performance was dominating, even if he improved only marginally on the stump. And Gingrich did nearly everything wrong. The result was a decisive 15-point victory for Romney, who now has two primary victories to Gingrich's one.

Read the rest of it here.  I think the Romney train has left the station and is picking up speed.  I doubt Gingrich will have many more good days.

Rich Lowry also has some thoughts on the subject worth reading.

Florida Primary Today

Romney looks like he's headed to a winner-take-all victory in Florida today:

PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as "very conservative." The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they'd already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he'd have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.

This is why I don't like early voting. People who vote two or three weeks ahead of the election are completely immune to any news developments that occur in those final days and I don't think it helps the democratic process.  There have probably been two or three debates since some of those people voted, plus various news developments that may have changed some minds.

Newt: I'm In It Until the Convention

I'm not sure he'll have the money to hang in there if he starts rolling up a bunch of primary losses:

Despite signs that he could lose the important Florida primary on Tuesday, Newt Gingrich, who picked up the endorsement of a former opponent, Herman Cain, pledged Saturday to stay in the nominating race until the very end, telling reporters he would press on until the Republican convention in Tampa in August.

“I will go all the way to the convention,” Mr. Gingrich said after a rally at a golf course here. “I expect to win the nomination.”

Will this be the GOP's Obama vs. Hillary? We'll see.

Political Headline of the Day

If Newt had any hope of good coverage from the mainstream media, this will probably end that:

Gingrich campaign to traveling press: Find your own damn ride

You should read it to see how this all transpired. Kind of an insider's look at the campaign process.

The Final Debate

At least the last one for the next month, and probably the last one for some of the candidates.  I didn't watch it, but based on the reaction I'm seeing from a variety of people I follow on Twitter Rick Santorum did very well, but probably won't help himself that much.  Mitt was okay and had one of his better outings.  Ron Paul was....Ron Paul.  And Newt has apparently peaked and is now in mid-collapse.  I hear his numbers on In-Trade are diving with Romney now favored to win Florida at 92%.

Newt we hardly knew ye.

Mitt's gonna be the nominee and we better start figuring out how to beat Obama with him leading the ticket.

Nancy Pelosi: Uh, Never Mind, I Don't Really Know Anything

After suggesting she had some hidden insight into Newt Gingrich that would keep him from being elected, San Fran Nan is backing down:

Rep. Nancy Pelosi's office on Wednesday said the minority leader doesn't have any dirt on Newt Gingrich.

Pelosi has suggested in two interviews that she knows something that could prevent Gingrich from becoming president, but her office said the California Democrat doesn't have any secrets about Gingrich, who has shot to the top of national Republican polls after winning the South Carolina primary.

"The 'something' Leader Pelosi knows is that Newt Gingrich will not be President of the United States. She made that clear last night," Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said in a statement.

"Leader Pelosi previously made a reference to the extensive amount of information that is in the public record, including the comprehensive committee report with which the public may not be fully aware," Hammill said.

Either Pelosi was slapped down because she really does have some information and the Dems didn't want her telegraphing her hand, or this was just another effort to remain relevant in this year's election. My guess is the second one is more likely.

Is Romney Trying to Make Himself This Election's Obama?

Jim Geraghty has some thoughts on Romney's lackluster campaign so far, and the possibility of this nomination going all the way to the convention:

Part of the problem is that it feels as if Romney 2012 is trying to pull off a rerun of the Obama 2008 campaign, running as a largely blank slate, letting voters of diverse ideological stripes project their desires and preferences onto him. The problem is that you can run that when you're a biracial young man with little or no political record ("present!"), an exotic personal story (Indonesia! Hawaii! Harvard! The mean streets of Chicago!) and rhetorical skills that are, if overrated, effective at hitting the emotional soft spots of the media and low-information swing voters. 

"I believe in America"? That's what you're going with this cycle, governor? I'm sorry, you don't get to quote The Godfather unless you've killed a bunch of your enemies while attending a baptism. Sure, Romney can have his super PAC run some attack ads against Newt, but does anybody think of Mitt Romney as a tough guy? As a fighter? As somebody whom you can disagree with, but whom you wouldn't want to cross?

I've laid out my gripes with Newt. But Romney is making that divided convention, party-elders-look-for-a-unifying-candidate scenario look better and better each day. With Ron Paul playing the delegate game quite smartly, and neither Mitt nor Newt likely to close the deal with unimpressed Republican voters, the deadlocked-convention scenario looks a lot more plausible than usual.

At least, let's put off that final decision as long as possible. As Jordan Gehrke wrote not long ago:

It's easy to get swept away in the feeling that this nominating process has to end early. But really, why should it? At the end of February, the Republican National Committee will have awarded only 174 RNC delegates out of the 1,143 needed to lock up the nomination.    A long primary would allow Republicans to protect their nominee, grow the party, and avoid handing Obama an early target. Let's hope history repeats itself.

A Newt win in Florida will certainly extend things further into the year, however if Mitt sweeps those northern winner-take-all primaries, I don't see how this goes all the way to the convention.

But wouldn't that be something? Delegates are committed to their candidates for the first ballot only. After that, they can vote for anyone they choose, including people who weren't on the original ballot.

But winning Florida is not sure bet for Newt. I'm not sure how his moon and Mars comments yesterday will play with those Florida voters not on the Space Coast. It appears to me that his numbers have peaked and may start edging down. A Romney win in Florida could tip the scales and end this nomination process much earlier.

That's One Small Step for Man, One Giant Promise for Newt Gingrich

I'm not sure this will play well with voters in much of the country:

Newt Gingrich told a cheering crowd along Florida's Space Coast late Wednesday that he would establish a permanent colony on the moon, and develop a spacecraft that can get to Mars, by the end of his second term as president.

Gingrich, who has long held a fascination with space exploration and has talked extensively about further missions to the moon, Mars and beyond, committed for the first time to pushing aggressively for such programs if he wins the White House. Just a few miles from Cape Canaveral, he played to a crowd eager for a renewal of the nation's space program. The speech also gave him a chance to tweak Mitt Romney, his leading rival for the GOP, who has mocked Gingrich's "zany" ideas.

"I was attacked the other night for being grandiose," Gingrich said. "I would just want you to note: Lincoln standing at Council Bluffs was grandiose. The Wright Brothers standing at Kitty Hawk were grandiose. John F. Kennedy was grandiose. I accept the charge that I am grandiose and that Americans are instinctively grandiose."

This was certainly a pander to the Space Coast folks who are seeing thousands of jobs disappear with the end of the Space Shuttle program. However, he opens the door to a lot of ridicule in other parts of the country.

Newt to Nancy: Put Up Or Shut Up

Be careful what you wish for, Newt:

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich responded to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, who said on Wednesday night on CNN's John King that Mr. Gingrich would never become President of the United States.

"There is something I know. The Republicans, if they choose to nominate him that's their prerogative," said Congresswoman Pelosi. "I don't even think that's going to happen."

Mr. Gingrich appeared on The Washington Times affiliated radio program "America's Morning News" and forcefully responded to Rep. Pelosi.

"There's almost a level of hysteria about the prospect of somebody who really wants to change Washington," said Mr. Gingrich to host John McCaslin.

"I have a simple challenge for Speaker Pelosi...you know, put up or shut up. I mean, I have no idea what she's talking about. I don't think she has any idea what she's talking about, but bring it on," he said.

"My life has been looked at by lots of people and I've been around a long time. And I just think that when you are a left-wing Democrat, the prospect of a Gingrich presidency is really sort of like a nightmare," Mr. Gingrich added.

To some Republicans the prospect of a Gingrich presidency is sort of a nightmare.

I don't think Pelosi has anything of any substance because if she did she wouldn't telegraph her hand this way. She'd hold it until it was the most useful in October and then spring it when Gingrich has little time to respond.

I think she's worried what Gingrich would do to Obama in a campaign and is trying not so subtly to scare people away from Gingrich so Obama can run against Romney. That would seem to be consistent with what other prominent Democrats have said and done during the GOP campaign.

Even Donald Trump is Impressed With Newt

I think the thing he's most impressed with is Newt is actually winning on the issue of marital infidelity:

Even Donald Trump was surprised that Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina Republican presidential primary Saturday.

"Nobody knows when it comes to this race," the real estate mogul told CNBC Monday. "This race is beyond what anyone has ever seen or witnessed before."

The former House Speaker has the momentum right now, said Trump, head of the Trump Organization. "He's amazing in the debates and a lot of people would like to see him do a number on [President] Obama. You know, let’s see."

Trump was also impressed that Gingrich was able to take an explosive issue — his ex-wife's allegation that he wanted an "open marriage" so he could keep his mistress, now his wife — and turn it to his advantage.

"He took the world's worst question that has to do with wives and infidelity and knocked it out of the park, and women ended up voting for (him)," Trump said. "That's a great skill."

I wonder if Trump is still sizing up a run as an independent? Newt is the same kind of bomb-thrower that Trump is, so there's isn't room in the race for both of them. However, a Romney nomination might get Trump thinking about it again.

Political Photo of the Day

Seen on Facebook:

Sheldon Adelson Contributing 250,000 Gondola Rides at the Venetian Hotel to the Newt Gingrich Campaign

That translates to $5,000,000 (gondola rides at Adelson's hotel are $20 apiece).  The donation isn't going directly to Newt, but to a SuperPac that works on Newt's behalf.  It'll keep him on the air in Florida and give him a little bit of financial parity with Mitt Romney who could write that check himself if he wanted to.

Save Us, Mitch Daniels, You're Our Only Hope...

Bill Kristol fantasizes a scenario in which Mitch Daniels, while giving the GOP response to Obama's State of the Union speech tomorrow night, drops a bit of a bombshell on the GOP nomination race.  Here's how Kristol has Daniels wrapping up his remarks:

Which raises the question: Is the current crop of Republican presidential candidates up to denying President Obama a second term? And would any of them be up to the necessary remodeling of our nation if they were to win? Unfortunately, lots of my fellow Republicans have doubts on both scores. A recent poll found that 7 out of 10 Republicans across the nation would like more options to choose from for president.

The candidates for the Republican nomination are my friends. I like and admire them. But I must say I’ve increasingly come to share the doubt that any of them would be likely to win, or would be likely to govern successfully.

So I want to announce tonight that I am open to reconsidering my decision not to seek the presidency in 2012. I have not wanted to run, for family reasons among others. I have hoped someone else would prove up to the task. But my family and I have now decided that country must come first. I am considering joining the race.

But I need to know if you want me to run. I only want to enter the race if you, the people, think I should. So here’s what I propose: None of the candidates currently running has received more than a total of 300,000 votes in the three contests so far. So here’s a test of my viability: If in the next few days I receive more than 300,000 emails, at http://mymanmitch.com/, asking me to run—then I will take that as a sign that, despite my previous reluctance, I should enter the contest.

If I run, I will be a reluctant candidate, in the sense that I did not plan on seeking this position. But let me assure you of this: if I do run, I will not run a reluctant campaign. I will run full out. I will compete in those primaries where I can still get on the ballot, I will go all out to win at the convention where the nomination will likely be decided, and I will take the fight to President Obama in the fall. If I run, I will run to win—because this country deserves leadership that will fundamentally remodel our government and restore our nation.

Thank you, good night, and God Bless America.

It's not going to happen, but I'm sure there are some establishment Republicans that would love to see such a scenario.

The Man Who Gave Us Newt - Mitt Romney

Mark Steyn slices and dices the Romney campaign and this will leave a mark:

The nature of this peculiar primary season — the reason it seems at odds with both the 2009–2010 political narrative and the seriousness of the times — was determined by Mitt Romney. Even if you don’t mind Romneycare, or the abortion flip-flop, or any of the rest, there’s a more basic problem: He’s not a natural campaigner, and on the stump he instinctively recoils from any personal connection with the voters. So, in compensation, he’s bought himself a bunch of A-list advisers and a lavish campaign. He is, as he likes to say, the only candidate with experience in the private sector. So he knows better than to throw his money away, right? But that’s just what he’s doing, in big ways and small.

Small: It’s a good idea to get that telegenic gal (daughter-in-law?) to stand behind him during the concession speech, but one of those expensive consultants ought to tell her not to look so bored and glassy-eyed as the stiff guy grinds through the same-old-same-old for the umpteenth time. To those watching on TV last night, she looked like we felt.

Big: Why is the stump speech so awful? “I believe in an America where millions of Americans believe in an America that’s the America millions of Americans believe in. That’s the America I love.” Mitt paid some guy to write this insipid pap. And he paid others to approve it. Not only is it bland and generic, it’s lethal to him in a way that it wouldn’t be to Gingrich or Perry or Bachmann or Paul because it plays to his caricature — as a synthetic, stage-managed hollow man of no fixed beliefs. And, when Ron Paul’s going on about “fiat money” and Newt’s brimming with specifics on everything (he was great on the pipeline last night), Mitt’s generalities are awfully condescending: The finely calibrated inoffensiveness is kind of offensive.

Read the rest at the link. It think Steyn accurately sums up the myth about Romney's electability. A severe charisma shortage running against a guy who's all charisma and nothing else - the guy with charisma is going to win even though he has no record on which to run. The voters will not be able to see themselves listening to Mitt for four years.  They don't know what he believes because it's subject to change daily.  That's not a recipe for success.

Will Voters Vote For the Guy They Don't Like But Has the Right Ideas, or The Guy They Like Who's Been a Disappointment?

Jim Geraghty has some thoughts on the favorability factor and the tough road it makes for Newt in the general election:

Sunday night, the Ace of Spades concluded:

Romney was never my guy, but since the party has refused to back any plausible candidate, it's Romney by default. . . . Newt's selling spleen. Trouble is, I have plenty of spleen already. What I need is a guy who can follow-through and do things. What does Gingrich have apart from not being Romney? He has all of the ideological deviancy without any of the financial skill and drive.

Later, he twists the knife a bit: "For all of the new Newt Recruits: There was a reason you considered him unelectable for the first eight months of his campaign."

On Friday afternoon, the Washington Examiner's Conn Carroll offered a data point that every Republican primary voter can and should consider.

Here are the most recent favorability results I could find for Obama, Romney, and Newt. 

Fox News, 1/12-1/14:
Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5
Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29 

CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17:
Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7
Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32 

PPP, 1/13-1/17:
Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3
Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34

America does not love Romney, but boy do they hate Newt.

Now, favorability numbers can change. Some flight between South Carolina and Florida could suddenly have all the engines fail, and Newt could race to the cockpit and successfully land the plane on the water the way Captain Sullenberger did for U.S. Airways Flight 1549. But barring some dramatic new bit of information, 2012 Republican presidential nominee Newt Gingrich would head into the general election as an extraordinarily disliked man.

Now, Newt fans can argue A) somehow between now and Election Day, the country will look at a guy who's been in the national spotlight on and off since 1994 and suddenly find him exponentially more likeable than they do nowwhile the Obama campaign is running an expensive negative campaign against him or B) a majority in enough states to win 270 electoral votes will decide that in light of the state of the country, likeability doesn't matter all that much, and that they will happily vote for the guy they dislike because he will do a better job as president.

Good luck with either of those scenarios. Some of those folks feeling unfavorably about Newt Gingrich may not like him because of his marital troubles; some may not like him because they bought into the Time magazine cover of him as Ebenezer Scrooge; some simply may not like him because of his appearance or some other fairly shallow reason. But I suspect those views are visceral and deeply felt, and sadly, you cannot logically argue a person out of a position that he did not logically argue himself into.

On Election Night, Gingrich repeated his pledge that, if nominated, he would propose seven three-hour Lincoln-Douglas-style debates with President Obama. If Gingrich and Obama were to debate, I could easily envision Gingrich tearing apart Obama's tissue-thin record, bringing up a dozen Obama missteps that the incumbent and MSM would prefer to ignore, and the president retreating into ever vaguer platitudes and generalities. And I could also see those same debates ending with Obama leading by an even wider margin because so many non-Republican voters found Gingrich smug, hectoring, condescending, snide, and disrespectful. Style matters, and you don't go into an election with the electorate you wished you had, you go into an election with the electorate you have.

With Newt as the nominee, the Republican message to swing voters is, "Vote for the guy you detest to replace the president whom you still like but who has disappointed you." That's not an impossible sales pitch, but it is an extraordinarily difficult one.

I know a lot of Republicans are counting on Newt obliterating Obama in debates to turn the tide, but it's dangerous to put all your eggs in that basket. For one thing, if Newt is the nominee I doubt there will be more than one debate. Technically Obama doesn't have to agree to any debates, but that would be universally seen as political cowardice. So my guess is he'll agree to one only and waive off any others claiming he's too busy (while he continues to do several fundraisers a week and get in the usual rounds of golf). That means Newt has one chance to make an impact, and even Obama can be prepared well enough to have one good night.

And if Newt comes off as a guy with an anger problem (that's how my wife views him) and he tries to bully Obama, that will blow up and Obama will get the sympathy vote from all those who are led by their feelings (and there are lots of those people).

Newt's gonna have to have more going for him than debate expectations.