Clinton Wins Pennsylvania

The question now is by how much. A simple guideline:

• 0%-5% could be considered a win for Obama. Won't help Clinton at all.
• 6% - 9% status quo - no real change in the race, and no increased calls for Clinton to get out
• 10%+ - big win for Clinton, changes the race.

We'll see what happens.

UPDATE: Campaign Spot reports that 1-in -10 voters switched their registration to vote in the Democrat primary. Looks like Operation Chaos had an impact. What will be interesting is if those 1-in-10 change back in the next week or so.

UPDATE 2: More from Campaign Spot:

UPDATE: The King Number-Cruncher, the great Michael Barone, says that if Hillary ends up winning with 160,000 votes (his back-of-the-envelope margin), and you throw in the results of Michigan and Florida (even though Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, just "undecided"), she actually takes the popular vote lead.

And this:

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: A few points worth noting in Hillary's victory speech. There's a big sign that says "PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN", and Hillary goes over to shake hands, ensuring that it's on camera. Over Hillary's shoulder is a young man with boxing gloves — no doubt a reference to the debate reaction, and she says, "I'm in this race to fight for you."

Also, the crowd chants at one point, "Yes, she can! Yes, she can!"

UPDATE 3: From Bill Kristol (a fan of Operation Chaos):

Hillary Clinton’s convincing Pennsylvania victory is the third consecutive back-to-the-wall big-state win she’s managed (following on Ohio and Texas seven weeks ago). She’s done this despite being outspent by Obama, and with most of the Democratic establishment and the media rooting against her. In all, about 16 million people have voted for her so far in this nominating contest. That’s the most votes any presidential candidate has ever gotten in any primary cycle of either party.

So here’s a thought: Maybe we should acknowledge that Hillary Clinton is a pretty impressive candidate. She’s tough, disciplined, and not unappealing. She’s a good debater and adapts pretty quickly (if a bit clunkily) to campaign developments. Her campaign organization and strategists have been inferior to Obama’s--but she’s gotten more total votes than he (counting Michigan and Florida--the voters there are people too!). And she’s done this while bearing the burden of her husband.

So a tip of the hat to Hillary. Fight on!

Too Close to Call in Pennsylvania

Bad news for Hillary. If she was headed to a double-digit win as she hoped I think the nets could have made the call by now.

UPDATE: 8:46 pm EDT - Fox calls Pennsylvania for Clinton. It must not be as close as it looked at 8:00 pm

First Exit Polls From Pennsylvania

Hmmm. From Drudge - Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. If that holds Clinton will be for a disappointing night.

NOTE FROM CAMPAIGN SPOT - He says Drudge has the numbers reversed and the early polls are Obama 52%, Clinton 47%. Now that would be a shocker and probably a campaign-ender for Clinton. However, others point out that Obama generally overperforms by 7-8 points in early exit polls.

UPDATE: Negative attacks may be backfiring on Clinton:

Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date.

As far as campaigning, many discern a negative tone — and more blame it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than on Barack Obama, D-Ill.. Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.

Other info:

Seniors: 61C, 38O

White male: 55C, 45O

Blacks: 8C, 92O

42 percent say US is in serious recession.

Hillary Up by Seven in Pennsylvania

The new Strategic Vision Poll has Hillary up by seven points over Obama in Pennsylvania, but McCain beats them both:

When Democrats were asked their choices for President in 2008, the results were New York Senator Hillary Clinton 48%; Illinois Senator Barack Obama 41%; and 11% undecided.

When Democratic voters asked what was most important to them, a candidate who represented change or one with experience, 43% said change; 41% said experience; and 16% were undecided.

In a head to head matchup between John McCain and Hillary Clinton, McCain leads Clinton 46% to 42% with 12% undecided. In a head to head matchup between John McCain and Barack Obama, McCain leads 48% to 40% with 12% undecided.

Historically throughout the primary season Hillary has underpolled and Obama overpolled. Remember New Hampshire? A sure big Obama win became an unexpected Clinton win.

If Hill is up by seven in the polls, she could easily win by a dozen or more based on past performance.

Clinton Will Go To At Least June 3rd

Assuming that Hillary Clinton wins in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, her campaign is not planning to leave the race anytime soon, if ever:

The chief strategists of the Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton sparred on NBC's Meet the Press this morning over NAFTA, negative campaigning ties to special interest groups--and, especially, when a losing candidate becomes a spoiler.

But Clinton chief stategist Geoff Garin was unable to give a clear response when moderator Tim Russert pressed him on an answer Clinton gave in last Wednesday's debate that appears to commit her administration to a military strike against Iran if that country strikes Israel or even another Arab country in the Middle East.

Garin said that the Clinton campaign would continue through the last primary--and possibly beyond.

"We'll go through to June 3," Garin said, referring to the day of the last primary.

"I think at that point, it will be a very, very close election. Neither candidate's gonna have enough pledged delegates to win the nomination," Garin added.

Garin also suggested that the Clinton's are preparing for a struggle to win the nomination through the votes of superdelegates, even if the former first lady does not prevail among pledged delegates.

"There is more to this process," Garin said. "The superdelegates, as they are called. This is not about a backroom deal. These are people who are elected officials. They are elected party representatives. In the clear light of day, both candidates I think will make a case to them about why they are the best choice for the party and the country."

The only way I see her leaving the race before June is if she loses in Pennsylvania. Otherwise, I think she hangs in there until June 3rd unless there's a mass move by superdelegates for Obama in an effort to drive her out. If the race in Pennsylvania is close, that superdelegate move could come sooner rather than later.

Chelsea Clinton and Fast Eddie Rendell Cruise Philly's Gay Bars

Having a gay old time in Philadelphia:

In her family's non-stop campaigning in Pennsylvania, Chelsea Clinton got the post-midnight duty on Friday night: stumping in Philadelphia's gay bars.

Hillary Clinton's big supporter in the state, Gov. Ed Rendell, always heads to four or five of the most popular of them before elections, and he invited the former first daughter along for the trip.

And so it was that, as she walked out of Tavern on Carmac after midnight, a crowd of men outside the bar shouted "We love your highlights!" and "You're gorgeous, baby."

Clinton turned around, saying "thank you, but that's not why you should vote for my mom."

As 50 men and a handful of women gathered around her in the middle of Carmac Street, Clinton gave a five-minute discourse on her mother's education policy, explaining the flaws of No Child Left Behind and how her mother would fix it.

"The gay community has great feelings toward the [former] president and Hillary and they happen to love Chelsea," Rendell said.

A crowd of more than two dozen followed Clinton from Tavern to Woodies, a couple of blocks down the street. After being introduced by Rendell, Clinton gave a brief speech to the mostly male crowd, which briefly stopped dancing and checking out the dancers standing on tables (and wearing only briefs) to listen to her.

Chelsea is looking for votes. I'm not sure what Rendell is looking for.

Pennsylvania and Gun Control

National Journal tells us that one issue that has yet to come up in the Dem primary, gun control, may well be an issue in the upcoming Pennsylvania debate:

When Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton square off in an April 16 debate in Philadelphia, they may be forced to spend time discussing an issue neither has talked much about in this campaign: gun control. April 16 will mark one year since the murder of 32 students at Virginia Tech, the deadliest shooting rampage in U.S. history. The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence will stage events around the country that day calling for stronger gun regulations, and for the candidates, gun control will be thrust on the table suddenly and unavoidably.

Guns are an especially potent issue in Pennsylvania, which is home to 300,000 members of the National Rifle Association -- the highest per capita NRA membership in the country, according to Chris Cox, executive director of the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action. A 2002 Quinnipiac University poll found that 42 percent of Pennsylvania households have guns, including 54 percent of union households, a key Democratic constituency.

Gun issues also stir up passions in Pennsylvania for another very different reason. Philadelphia has experienced an epidemic of gun killings: 331 people were shot to death last year, 321 with handguns.

Local officials have pleaded with the state Legislature to pass new regulations, including measures to limit handgun purchases to one gun a week, allow local governments to pass their own gun control laws and require handgun owners to report lost or stolen weapons. Not one has passed. Last December, black lawmakers stormed out of the Legislature to protest the failure to pass new gun restrictions, and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell ordered each member to "put your rear end on the line" and vote for the laws -- all to no avail.

"Pennsylvania legislators, including many Democrats, respect gun rights," Cox said.

I don't think either Dem has been asked about the D.C. gun case, and that will undoubtedly be big in the fall depending on when the case comes down from the Supremes. It's likely that the Supremes will find an individual right to gun ownership (that's been there all along) and the Dem candidates will have to come up with an opinion on the subject, whether they really believe it or not.

The Pundit Class Versus The Budweiser Class

Although there was much gushing about the Obama speech on the part of the liberal media, the speech didn't play near as well with many voters who now see Obama as little more than a slick snake-oil salesman:

PHILADELPHIA — Stephanie Gill, a bartender in a white working class neighborhood in this Rust Belt city, noticed the shift immediately.

A week ago, her customers at Rauchut’s Tavern in Tacony didn’t have much to say about Barack Obama. But when she returned to work Wednesday, a day after the Illinois senator attempted to quell the furor over his pastor’s racially incendiary remarks, the reaction inside the corner bar was raw and unapologetic.

“People are not happy with Obama,” Gill said. “It’s the race stuff.”

Obama has always been a tough sell in largely white Northeast Philadelphia and in the city's blue-collar river wards, a collection of white ethnic enclaves where customers at the local watering hole are often born and raised in the neighborhood that supports it.

And his speech Tuesday, although widely praised by the pundit caste and Obama supporters, has only seemed to widen the gulf with the Budweiser class here.

More than a dozen interviews Wednesday found voters unmoved by Obama’s plea to move beyond racial divisions of the past. Despite baring himself with extraordinarily personal reflections on one of the most toxic issues of the day, a highly unusual move for a politician running for national office, the debate inside taverns and beauty shops here had barely moved beyond outrage aimed at the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Obama’s refusal to “disown” his longtime pastor.

A day after the speech, local residents were left wondering whether Obama was candid in the last week when he said he hadn’t heard any of Wright’s most objectionable remarks, but then said Tuesday that he had heard “controversial” remarks while sitting in the pews.

“He lied to Anderson Cooper,” said Rodica Mitrea, an aesthetician and immigrant from Romania, referring to an Obama interview Friday with the CNN anchor.

The reactions are merely a snapshot of a slice of the electorate, but it is a highly coveted one.

Charles Krauthammer described the speech as a "brilliantly executed failure", one of the rare voices of dissent among the pundit class. We'll find out on April 22nd just how badly the entire race episode played with the voters in Pennsylvania. The latest polling seems to indicate that Obama is losing support.

Eleven More Days to "Rush The Vote" In Pennsylvania

Jim Geraghty reminds Republicans in Pennsylvania about an important upcoming deadline:

Hillary's looking pretty solid in Pennsylvania as is — up by 14 percent, up by 19 percent, up by 18 percent — but that isn't stopping some Pennsylvania conservatives from switching their party registration to Democrat in order to vote for Hillary in the April 22 primary.

The last day to register as a Democrat, and still be eligible to vote in the primary, is March 24.

If Hillary does get the nomination, I want her to thank Rush Limbaugh in her convention speech.

Can we keep the turmoil going in the Democrat party? YES WE CAN!