Hypercane Irene

Although I spent Fri-Mon traveling, it was pretty apparent the big story was Hurricane Irene.  I'd been tracking it on this blog since it first became clear that it would be the ninth named storm, but the first to become an actual hurricane.

What made this storm particularly interesting was the potential to hit the I-95 corridor, an area populated by something like 60 million people.  And of course, that included Washington D.C. and New York City.

Many are now accusing the media of over-hyping this storm, and they may be right.  Certainly, if you're in Vermont or inland North Carolina or other places where the flooding has been extreme, there's no hype at all.  But if you were in New York City, the dreaded storm yielded little more than just a lot of rain.

When I had a chance I watched the coverage from my hotel room and there was without a question a New York-centrism in the coverage.  That's not that hard to understand given that the two centers of the media universe are New York and Washington, and most of the people reporting or producing the coverage lived in those areas.  It almost seemed that the anchors were impatient for the storm to finish with North Carolina so the main event could begin.

Hype also helps ratings, and it was clear to me on Friday that the media felt they had a vested interest in selling the worst case scenario for New York City.  The forecast models had already shifted to show a weaker Cat 1 storm hitting New York, and yet I watched CNN run and rerun an inundation model of lower Manhattan based on a Cat 2 storm.  That wasn't going to happen and the experts all knew that by that point in time.  Why didn't the producers order the change in reporting?  Probably because a scary Cat 2 scenario with 8-12 feet of water in lower Manhattan, flooding in the Ground Zero site, and flooding in the New York subway system was a lot sexier than a Cat 1 situation which might not even flood Battery Park.

And the hype wasn't confined to the media:

Despite Barack Obama’s initial protests to end his vacation early, the Obama re-election team convinced the president to pose for a much needed leadership photo-op in the wake of Hurricane Irene.

This even had to be very disappointing for the Obama campaign people.  He can't go splash through lower Manhattan while consoling displaced New Yorkers.  He can't do much to show that he's more engaged than President Bush was in 2005.  The hype pretty much damages everyone involved.

There's another tropical storm, Jose', currently winding its way across the Atlantic and the track could bring it to the East Coast again.  If this turns into a big storm, how many people will ignore the warnings thanks to the media hype from Irene?

And how many people will start looking at all media reporting with new skepticism?  That's not a bad thing.

I've Had a Little Experience With Hurricanes Myself

I'm traveling in Northern California today so I can't pay as much attention to Hurricane Irene as I'd like to.  Back in 1970 I had a front row seat for Category 3 Hurricane Celia in Corpus Christi, TX.  I wrote about the experience, and included some photos I took, here.  I have a pretty good idea of what the I-95 corridor will be facing today, though Irene will not be as strong as Celia was when it hit my motel on the bay in Corpus.

Today's I-95 Corridor Music Video

For all those facing Hurricane Irene this weekend, here's what you probably should be doing - Build An Ark:

Does New York Realize What's Coming Their Way?

I'm not so sure they do. The latest models show Irene hitting smack into New York City as a Category 1 hurricane. Can you imagine what the storm surge and winds whistling through skyscraper canyons is going to do?

Apparently Mayor Michael Bloomberg will not make a decision on mandatory evacuations until 8am Saturday morning. Conditions will be deteriorating throughout the day before the main storm hits on Sunday, but that seems to be cutting things way too short. Hope they have room in Madison Square Garden for thousands of potential refugees (See Superdome, New Orleans).

And the Giants and Jets were scheduled to play a pre-season game Saturday evening at 7. Did they cancel it? Nope, they just moved it up to 2pm. All those people will be trying to leave the stadium in what will surely be pretty tough conditions.

And a little further south in Washington D.C., the dedication ceremony on Sunday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial has been cancelled, but Rev. Al Sharpton has assured his minions that his march and rally on Saturday will still go on. Something seems really wrong with that. The hero gets postponed but the ego goes on.

Good luck with all that.

UPDATE: I just looked at the 11pm 72 hour track forecast. As you can see from the image below the forecast track has the storm passing just east of Manhattan and basically right over JFK Airport (the black line is the projected path.

Political Tweet of the Day

From Charles Krauthammer:

Earthquake, hurricane, Obamacare. When does it stop? Seven more and I vote we let the Israelites go.

Sometimes You Just Can't Win

Just ask Kenny Chesney:

Kenny Chesney avoided one storm… and steered into another.

Due to the looming threat of Hurricane Irene, which is set to wreak havoc on the Eastern seaboard this weekend, Chesney moved a Sunday concert at the Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. two days earlier to Friday.

While most fans seem to understand, many aren’t happy about the last-minute decision.

“Most everyone I speak to is thoroughly disappointed at the unprofessional way this unfortunate weather situation has been handled,” said one fan on Kenny’s Facebook page. “How in the world do you expect fans like myself who rely on our day to day jobs to ask for a Friday off and find a babysitter?!?!” asked another.

Hello, dummies, you're going to have anywhere from a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane sitting over Boston at the scheduled time of the Sunday concert. A babysitter is the least of your problems.

Latest Forecast for Irene is Bad News for Northeast

People from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to New England had better get their floaties on because Irene is going to be really big:

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.

There's more technical stuff at the link. One model has 10.5" of rain falling on New York City. With much of the area already saturated from previous rains, that much water will have no place to go. Combined with high winds and you'll have trees and power lines down everywhere and a disruption that could last weeks in some areas.

Irene Takes Aim at the I-95 Corridor

Bad news for the Northeast, the forecast models for Hurricane Irene have shifted a bit west meaning the hugely populated I-95 corridor will be under the gun for a direct hit:

The Weather Channel has more info, including wind damage and flood potential maps, at this link.   The Obamas will probably have to cut their trip a bit short, and you can pretty much write off the dedication ceremony for the new Martin Luther King Jr. memorial which was supposed to take place on Sunday.  At the time the ceremony is scheduled D.C. will probably be getting hammered by high winds and torrential rain.

This has the potential to be a big newsmaker over the weekend, with wide-spread damage and power outages that could affect millions of people. As one person put it, we're going to find out how good the emergency management skills are of a number of governors.

Irene Still Has New England in Her Sights

The projected path of Hurricane Irene keeps edging a bit east and my not hit the U.S. directly until it gets to New England:

Could be some pretty heavy wind and rain in Washington D.C. and New York this weekend but they'll probably escape the worst of the damage. Boston, however, could end up with a Category 1 hurricane.

Latest Hurricane Irene Forecast

From SevereStudios.com:

Pretty much a sure bet we'll have our first landfalling hurricane in a couple of years.

Irene Could Be a Problem for the Entire East Coast of Florida

The latest forecast cone for Tropical Storm Irene is bad news for Florida's east coast:

The previous forecast cone had the center of the storm running right up the middle of the Florida peninsula, keeping the center of the storm over land. If it's going to hit Florida, that would be a preferred path because it would cut the center of the storm off from its warm water heat source, thus weakening the storm.

The new path shows the center of circulation remaining over water just offshore, and should it take that path and remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters, the storm will not only retain hurricane strength but could get a lot stronger. It could also rake the entire east coast of Florida with hurricane force winds and driving rain. Not a good scenario for all the beach cities.

It may curve enough to avoid a major hit on Miami, but areas north of there could be in for a rough week.

Ninth Time's The Charm

The Atlantic Hurricane Season, which was forecast to be pretty busy, so far has produced nine named storms but not one hurricane.  That's expected to change this week as Irene will likely grow to hurricane strength and she seems to have Miami in her sights:

Tropical Storm Irene is dumping heavy rain on the northern Leeward Islands and the system is expected to strengthen as it heads toward Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. Most forecasts have the storm hitting southern Florida by the end of the week.

Irene could become a hurricane Monday, though its power was predicted to fluctuate over the next several days as it moves over the Dominican Republican and possibly Cuba.

The storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Irene was 45 miles (72 kilometers) south-southwest of Antigua, moving westward at 21 mph (33 kph). Sustained winds must reach 74 mph (119 kph) for the storm to become a hurricane.

If it hits Florida as a hurricane it will probably be a fairly weak one since it won't have a lot of time over open water to strengthen. However, even a weak hurricane can wreak real havoc on a densely populated area like Miami and its suburbs.