Obama Loses the AP

Even the AP can't look the other way anymore:

So much for changing how Washington works.

Crimping his carefully crafted outsider image and undercutting a centerpiece of his 2008 campaign, President Barack Obama got caught playing the usual politics — dangling a job offer for a political favor in the hunt for power.

His lawyer admitted as much in a Friday report. It detailed how Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, sent former President Bill Clinton on a mission: try to persuade Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., to abandon his primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., by offering an executive branch post. Sestak said no, stayed in the race and beat the incumbent.

"I can assure the public that nothing improper took place," Obama had told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

True or not, Obama has a political problem.

Because what did take place was backroom bargaining, political maneuvering and stonewalling, all of which run counter to the higher — perhaps impossibly high — bar Obama has set for himself and his White House to do things differently.

The White House's reluctant acknowledgment of the chain of events shone a light on the unseemly, favor-trading side of politics — and at an inopportune time for Obama and Democrats as they seek to keep control of Congress.

This election year, angry voters have made clear they have little patience for politics generally and Washington politics specifically. And they are choosing candidates who promise to change the system — and ousting incumbents who fail to deliver.

But what may be even more troubling for the president is the question the episode raises: Has Obama become just like every other politician?

The answer could have implications for him ahead of congressional elections this fall and his likely re-election race in two years.

The White House tried to blunt the media maelstrom by releasing the report on the Friday before a long Memorial Day weekend, when fewer people are paying attention to the news.

In the old days a holiday weekend Friday release would have buried the story completely. Nowadays, no so much. Lots of blogs, internet news sites, and even 24-hour cable channels can keep a "buried" story alive.

This isn't going away.

Political Headline of the Day

From The Daily Caller:

Adds Doug Powers:

The problem for Bill and the Obama administration is that “job offer” might have saved its clothes in a closet and told a friend about it.

Heh.

White House Used Bill Clinton to Offer Bribe to Joe Sestak

Didn't work, and now the whole thing is blowing up Sestak's campaign:

President Obama’s chief of staff used former President Bill Clinton as an intermediary to see if Representative Joe Sestak would drop out of a Senate primary if given a prominent, but unpaid, advisory position, people briefed on the matter said Friday.

Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff, asked Mr. Clinton to explore the possibilities last summer, according to the briefed individuals, who insisted on anonymity to discuss the politically charged situation. Mr. Sestak said no and went on to win last week’s Pennsylvania Democratic primary against Senator Arlen Specter.

The White House did not offer Mr. Sestak a full-time paid position because Mr. Emanuel wanted him to stay in the House rather than risk losing his seat. Among the positions explored by the White House was an appointment to the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, which provides independent oversight and advice the president. But White House officials discovered it would not work because Mr. Sestak could not serve on the board while still serving in Congress.

Mr. Sestak first mentioned publicly in February that he had been offered a job but provided no details, and the White House for three months has refused to discuss it, generating intense criticism from Republicans who accused it of trying to bribe a congressman and deep consternation among Democrats who called on the administration to answer questions.

Mr. Obama promised on Thursday to release an account of the matter, which White House lawyers have been drafting in recent days in consultation with Mr. Sestak’s brother, Richard, who runs his campaign. The White House plans to release its statement later on Friday. Until now, the White House has said publicly only that whatever conversations took place with Mr. Sestak were not inappropriate.

Of course, the White House has already absolved itself of any wrongdoing, but I think there will be additional opinions on that matter that won't necessarily agree.

And I don't think they'll be able to count on Arlen Specter as a friendly witness.

Snarlin' Arlen May Snarl at Obama

This could be fun to watch:

Friends tell The Daily Beast that the departing senator, injured by Obama's failure to show last-minute support, may well shift right on key votes from Kagan to financial reform.

With party unity crucial to Democrats’ hopes for passing significant legislation before the midterm elections, Arlen Specter’s primary loss could pose a new problem for the White House.

The Senate could vote on any number of crucial bills before the midterms, including a new jobs bill, immigration reform, climate-change legislation, and a final financial-reform package, making Specter’s continuing support more important than ever. But several longtime friends and associates tell The Daily Beast that without a primary challenge to pressure him, the veteran senator--a famously prickly character whose temper has earned him the nickname "Snarlin' Arlen"—may shift to the right.

With Joe Sestak's campaign in trouble (he beat Specter in the primary), Obama may not only have lost the PA seat in November but the PA seat for the rest of this term. Arlen Specter could have a pretty good time getting even.

Obama's "Watergate"

Obama is already experiencing his "Katrina" in the form of the Gulf Oil Spill, and now one California congressman is suggesting the president may be about to experience his "Watergate":

An e-mail from Rep. Darrell Issa's (R-Calif.) campaign suggested Wednesday that the controversy over Rep. Joe Sestak's (D-Pa.) alleged administration job offer could be President Barack Obama's Watergate scandal.

In an e-mail with the subject line "The Sestak Affair - Obama's Watergate?", the ranking member on the Oversight and Government Reform committee focused on "long-standing questions" about the offer Sestak says was made to him to urge him to drop out of the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary.

The campaign e-mail says the allegations would amount to three felony charges of bribery and corruption.
"Congressman Sestak has continued to repeat his story whenever asked without varying from the original version. The White House however has arrogantly and wrongly assumed that they can sweep this matter under the rug," Issa, a member of the House Judiciary Committee, says in the e-mail.

"This may be the way business is done in Chicago, but it’s not the way things are done in our nation’s capitol [sic] and I am intent on getting to the bottom of this."

The congressman noted that Sestak has otherwise been mum on the details of the job offer, but added that it is "widely speculated" that Secretary of the Navy was the job in question.

"Joe Sestak realized that he made a mistake by letting the cat out of the bag. It’s a mistake that might end his bid for U.S. Senate and damage President Barack Obama," Issa continues. "He doesn’t want to make things worse than they are, so he’s sticking to his story to maintain his own credibility, but will not cooperate with investigators to bring charges against the guilty White House official.

"If he’s telling the truth, an investigation must take place and justice must be served. If he’s lying, then he should immediately resign the race for Senate."

Karl Rove adds this via Twitter:

@KarlRove: Joe Sestak's lying or he's protecting a felon in Barack Obamas White House

And MSNBC host Joe Scarborough describes the media's role in this as "malpractice". That's certainly true - no cover-up of this nature would ever have been willingly ignored if the president and the candidate had been Republicans.

Sestak has been consistent in his story, but has also refused to go any farther than stating he received a job offer. He won't say what the offer was or who made it. His refusal to speak further on the subject has very effectively hamstrung the opening days of his Senate bid. He's not going to be able to make this go away until he gives a full accounting of what happened, and every day this goes on his campaign is hurt a little more.

Dem Joe Sestak Was Offered White House Job In Exchange for Dropping Out of PA Senate Race

This is not going to help the Dems hold on to the Pennsylvania Senate seat:

Rep. Joe Sestak, winner of the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, is refusing to provide more information on what job he was offered by a White House official to drop of that race, although he confirmed again that the incident occurred.

The White House was backing incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) in the primary. Sestak acknowledged in an interview in February that he was offered a position by an unnamed White House official - a potential violation of federal law - but has not offered any specifics on conversation. Republicans are trying to use the issue against Sestak in the November Senate race.

"It's interesting. I was asked a question about something that happened months earlier, and I felt that I should answer it honestly, and that's all I had to say about it." Sestak said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." "Anybody else has to decide on what they will say upon their role. That's their responsibility."

Yet Sestak confirmed to NBC's David Gregory that the incident did take place.

"I was offered a job, and I answered that," Sestak said. "Anything that goes beyond that is for others to talk about."

And talk about it they will.  Sestak just threw the door wide open to a criminal investigation of the White House and whatever staffers might have been involved in the offer, up to and including the president.  The offer was an attempted bribe.  The press will try to bury this, but Rep. Darrell Issa has been hounding the White House for months for information on the reported offer.  He just got the opening he needs to push on with an investigation.

Some Thoughts on Tonight's Primary Races

This was not a good night for the GOP leadership.

In Kentucky the GOP backed the loser who lost rather badly.  Rand Paul certainly won the hearts of conservatives, but will he be able to carry the day in the entire state?  I guarantee the Democrats will take every opportunity to connect Paul not only with his own policies and statements, but with his dad Ron Paul's.  Even though Rand differs from his dad on some key issues, they'll be joined at the hip in Dem advertising.

Kentucky should be an easy GOP win.  We'll see.  The race probably got a little tougher with a Rand Paul win.

In Pennsylvania and across the country there were lots of people who couldn't wait to see Arlen Specter defeated.  His decision to leave the GOP and give Democrats the 60th vote in the Senate certainly put him at the top of everyone's most wanted list.  However, his loss in PA made that Senate race much more competitive.

Although a Specter win tonight would have kept the insufferable Senator's career alive a little longer, he would have been a much weaker candidate against Pat Toomey in the Fall.  Joe Sestak has some real credentials and will be a tough competitor.  Sometimes getting what you want, such as a loss by Specter tonight, is not the best thing in the long run.  The race in PA will go from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

One more thing - Specter was supported by Obama.  Obama is now 0-4.

In PA-12 the special election win by Dem Mark Critz will be spun any number of ways by the press, even though the district has a heavy Dem advantage in registration and has been in Dem hands for decades.  Here's what you can expect to see in the breathless reports about this race:

• This win was "surprising" and/or "great" for the Dems.
• The GOP was overconfident.
• Voter anger against Democrats is a myth.
• The Fall elections now look a lot better for Democrats.

Uh...no.  Critz was able to win this because of three things:

• Heavy Democrat voter registration advantage in the district
• Heavy Dem turnout because of the contested Senate election
• Critz ran as a conservative, running against nearly all of Obama's policies

One thing for sure, I doubt the GOP will spend much money on this district in the general election.  This was probably Tim Burns only chance to win this thing.

In Arkansas it looks like the Senate race will go to a runoff.  As I write this 59% of the vote is in and Lincoln and Halter are tied at 43%.  We'll do it all again in three weeks.  The real question is how the 14% that voted for the third candidate will split.  Given that they didn't vote for the incumbent in the first round I'd guess that the majority of that vote will go to Halter, who ran against Lincoln from her left.

Should Lincoln win on June 8th she's still in big trouble statewide.  Should Halter win, the race becomes even more of a GOP favorite.

Let the spin begin!

Tonight's Primary Election Results

UPDATE: 8:39 pm PDT
There are four races that I'm watching:

Kentucky GOP Senate - Rand Paul wins big.  The candidate backed by Sarah Palin and James Dobson beats the candidate backed by Dick Cheney and Mitch McConnell.  Conservatives over GOP elites.  Unless Paul blows up along the way he should win in November.
UPDATE - This headline says it all:

'I HAVE A MESSAGE FROM THE TEA PARTY: WE HAVE COME TO TAKE OUR GOVERNMENT BACK'...

Arkansas DEM Senate - 59% in and Lincoln now trailing 43%-43%,  50% needed to avoid a runoff.

Pennsylvania DEM Senate - Race has been called for Joe Sestak.  Arlen goes from Specter to Spectator.  Sestak will face conservative Pat Toomey in November.  From The Fix:

If Specter loses, the day he lost it was the day he switched and said "my change in party will enable me to be reelected."

Pennsylvania House District 12 Special - It's as good as over.  Mark Critz will win and PA-12 will stay in the Dem column. The big turnout for the Dem Senate race undoubtedly hurt Burns, but he also underperformed in a lot of key parts of the district.  The heavy Dem voter registration advantage in this district paid off.

Running Against Nancy

Tim Burns is a Republican running in a very Democrat district in Pennsylvania, the district where John Murtha funneled millions of dollars in earmarks and built an airport to nowhere during his lengthy career.  Burns holds a slim 1 point lead in the final pre-election polls and is seeking to make this race a referendum on Nancy Pelosi:

Tim Burns, the Republican candidate for U.S. Representative in Pennsylvania's 12th district, the seat recently vacated by the death of Congressman John Murtha, told the lunch crowd at Kings Restaurant Sunday afternoon that he never intended to get into politics and his candidacy is a referendum on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Obama administration.

"I think we need people from outside the government, people with common sense business principles that can go to Washington and make decisions in the best interest of the country and the district. Not in the best interest of advancing their career," Burns said in a interview with Fox News.

Burns accuses his Democratic opponent Mark Critz of pandering to the administration, saying "Nancy Pelosi is holding fundraisers for him, the Vice President Joe Biden was here and Bill Clinton is coming to the district so this is extremely important because people know that a vote for Mark Critz is a vote for the Pelosi-Obama agenda."

I think this is a good strategy. Pelosi is as far left as they come, farther left than most of her own party. Reminding people that a vote for a Dem is a vote for Nancy Pelosi to continue as Speaker could be very effective in getting even Democrats to think twice about the candidates.

Burns has a good shot at winning this race.  Democrat will likely turn out in big numbers because of the high profile Senate primary between Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, but Democrat in PA-12 don't seem to be quite as enamored of their party leaders as those in other parts of the state.

Races to Watch Tomorrow

There are a number of primaries and special elections to watch on Tuesday.  Three of the races feature Senate contests:

Democrats and Republicans are watching three Senate primaries on Tuesday that could be another referendum on the status quo in Washington, D.C.

Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky are all holding Senate primaries with the first two offering a sense of how hot the anti-incumbency fever is this midterm election year and the last providing a preview of the power of the establishment versus the insurgent movement.

"There have been a lot of discussion about incumbency; we'll find out maybe something maybe about incumbency Tuesday in Arkansas and Pennsylvania where we have two Democratic incumbents in serious races," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."

This will probably be Arlen Specter's last election because all the polling indicates he'll lose the race to Joe Sestak. Specter changed parties after 45 years as a Republican because he thought he'd have a free shot at the Dem primary and could win in November. Specter's moderate to liberal voting record made it unlikely he'd survive a primary challenge from conservative Pat Toomey.

Specter chose poorly. It just may be that he was destined to lose this time no matter what. He's a symbol for all that's broken in Washington.

In Arkansas Blanche Lincoln has voted against the will of Arkansas voters so many times, the latest being Obamacare, that she'll either lose or be pushed into a runoff. There's very little chance she'll win on Tuesday. If the anti-incumbency attitude among voters is strong enough, she'll be gone.

In Kentucky the open seat of Republican Jim Bunning is up for grabs between Rand Paul, son of Rep. Ron Paul, and Trey Grayson, who has been endorsed by Dick Cheney. Grayson is the Republican political class candidate, getting support from the other Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, but Paul has the support of conservatives like James Dobson and Sarah Palin. It's looking like Paul might pull this one off.

There's also the special election in PA-12 between Republican Tim Burns and Dem Mark Critz. This is John Murtha's old seat and has been in Dem hands for decades.

Burns looks strong and this could be a major GOP pick-up, but GOP officials are reminding everyone that the high profile Dem Senate race could bring a lot of Democrats to the polls. PA-12 is a very Democrat district, and that makes Burns job that much tougher.

Experts say that a Mark Critz win won't tell us as much about what will happen in November as a Tim Burns win would do, but if Critz wins very narrowly it will be clear that Democrats will really have their hands full in districts that aren't so heavily Dem.  Polling has this race very close so turnout and voter intensity will be important.

Since all these races are in the east we should have results fairly early in the evening West Coast time on Tuesday.

Specter's Done - Obama's Organization is Supporting Him

Well, that's it for Arlen Specter.  Word is out from Jake Tapper that Obama's big political activism organization is going all out to support...Specter.  We know from elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts what happens when Obama comes on board:

Organizing for America, the former grass-roots campaign arm for President Obama’s 2008 campaign, is trying to rally supporters to phone bank and get out the vote in Pennsylvania for Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Penn., the former Republican locked in a tight primary race with a far more progressive Democrat, Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Penn.

Chris Bolling, the national volunteer coordinator for OFA, writes in an email that the “stakes of this election are high: ensuring that allies of the President are elected in the House and Senate to fight for change. So starting this weekend, through Tuesday's election, there will be phone banks for OFA volunteers in D.C. We'll call into Pennsylvania and encourage voters to support leaders who will fight for President Obama's vision for change.”

Specter, of course, supported the presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and only became a Democrat when it became clear he would suffer an ignominious defeat in the GOP primary to former Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Penn. But the White House, needing Specter’s support for various parts of the president’s agenda, pledged to help him in his re-election.

But all that politics making strange bedfellows means that the president’s campaign arm is asking grass-roots progressives to vote for someone who until last year was a Republican to defeat Sestak, who is indubitably a more legitimate progressive.

Democrats eating their own - you've got to enjoy that.

Bonus Political Video of the Day

If Arlen Specter wasn't already a dead man walking, this Joe Sestak ad will probably finish him off. Tying Specter to Bush and Palin will hit Democrats in Pennsylvania like waving a red flag at a bull.  The primary election is on Tuesday.

White House Tries to Clear the Way for Specter

The White House apparently didn't want recent Dem convert Arlen Specter to face any serious opposition in the primary election, and according to Rep. Joe Sestak, offered him an administration position to get out of the race:

Apparently it was an offer he could refuse.

Rep. Joe Sestak, who is causing heartburn for Democratic leaders by running against Arlen Specter for a Senate nomination in Pennsylvania, says the White House dangled a federal job in front of him in an attempt to entice him to drop out of the state's Democratic primary, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Friday.

But the White House "vociferously" denies Sestak's accusation, which came during a taping on a local Sunday news show. A White House official told Fox News that Sestak is expected to "clarify" the allegation.

Sestak, however, stood by his statement on Friday.

"I was asked a direct question yesterday and I answered it honestly," Sestak told Fox News. "There's nothing more to go into. I'm in this race now."

Sestak didn't elaborate on the circumstances during the Sunday show interview either, the Inquirer reported, but acknowledged that the job was a high-ranking position. Sestak told the show's host that he would "never leave" the Senate race for a deal, the newspaper said.

Sestak later he said he recalled the White House offer coming in July as he was preparing to formally announce his Senate candidacy in August, the newspaper said.

During the same period this summer, the White House played an active role in clearing the primary for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the New York primary. President Obama persuaded Rep. Steve Israel not to challenge Gillibrand, and the White House may have figured prominently in Rep. Carolyn Maloney's decision to stay out of the race. Harold Ford, who is mulling a challenge against Gillibrand, has warned the White House not to bully him.

If the White House were smart they'd let Specter go. He won't win if he survives the primary, so trying to prop him up now may give them a weaker candidate. However, this is probably part of the payback he got for switching parties.

Prominent Dems in Trouble

Two polls today show trouble for even relatively popular Democrat officeholders. In Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, who won with 61% of the vote in his last election, trails for Rep. John Kasich 51%-45%.

And in Indiana Rep. Mike Pence leads Dem Senator Evan Bayh 47% to 44%, and Pence isn't even officially in the race yet.

Both Strickland and Bayh have been reasonably popular incumbents. If they can be beaten, Dems in marginal districts are in big, big trouble.

In yet another sign of trouble for Democrats, Joe Biden's son Beau, thought to be the heir apparent to Biden's Senate seat, has announced that he will not run for the Senate but will seek re-election to his current position as Attorney General. In a more favorable year for Democrats I think Biden would have eagerly run for his dad's old seat and would have probably won. This year, not so much.

And how's that party change working for Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania? He switched to Democrat thinking it would give him a clear shot at re-election. According to Nate Silver, a Democrat who handicaps all these major races, there's a 72% chance that conservative Republican Pat Toomey will be the next Senator from Pennsylvania regardless of whether the Democrats nominate Spector or Joe Sestak.

And here are some of Silver's other Senate projections:

North Dakota - 99% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Arkansas - 73% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Nevada - 73% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Colorado - 70% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Delaware - 66% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Illinois - 51% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Missouri - 63% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Indiana - 63% chance of Dem win / hold

Ohio - 65% chance of GOP win / hold

New Hampshire - 65% chance of GOP win / pick-up

Kentucky - 74% chance of GOP win - hold

California - 79% chance of Dem win - hold

Florida - 82% chance of GOP win - hold

Wisconsin - 84% chance of Dem win - hold

North Carolina - 85% chance of GOP win - hold

New York - 87% chance of Dem win - hold

Washington - 93% chance of Dem win - hold

Louisiana - 93% chance of GOP win - hold

Georgia - 95% chance of GOP win - hold

Hawaii - 96% chance of Dem win - hold

Oregon - 96% chance of Dem win - hold

Arizona - 97% chance of GOP win - hold

Iowa - 97% chance of GOP win - hold

Connecticut - 99% chance of Dem win - hold

Kansas - 99% chance of GOP win - hold

Other states without much of a race - Give the GOP South Carolina, Alabama, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Alaska, Utah and Idaho. Dems get the other New York seat, Maryland, and Vermont.

As you can see there are lots of GOP pick-ups (8) and no Dem pick-ups. I still think California could end up in play and although Silver gives Indiana to the Dems, that one's not a sure deal either. If both CA and IN went GOP the Senate would be tied 50-50. Dems would retain control with Joe Biden as Vice President.

Could be a big GOP year.

Transparency You Can't See Through

That's what the Democrats are offering on health care and even one of their own is complaining:

Rep. Joe Sestak blames Democratic leaders for the plunge in public support for overhauling the health care system, saying Wednesday they failed to defend proposals that helped carry the party to victories in 2008.

"They said it would be transparent. Why isn't it?" said Sestak, a Delaware County Democrat, in a meeting with Tribune-Review editors and reporters. "At times, I find the caucus is a real disappointment. We aren't transparent, not just to the public but at times to the members."

Sestak is challenging Sen. Arlen Specter in the May 18 primary, as is Dravosburg's state Rep. Bill Kortz. Former Rep. Pat Toomey of the Lehigh Valley and Peg Luksik, a Johnstown activist, are seeking the Republican nomination for the seat.

I think Sestak will end up beating Spector and will in turn get beaten by Toomey. That seat is probably lost largely because of health care and Spector's defection to the Dem party.

Speaking of transparency, Drudge is running the siren and this headline:

C-SPAN: WHITE HOUSE HAS ALLOWED ONLY 'ONE HOUR' OF HEALTHCARE COVERAGE

And you just know they'll try to claim that this one hour of coverage will mean the president has kept the promise he made eight times that the debate would be televised. Good luck selling that.

Promises for Clunkers

You can't really call it "Cash for Clunkers" because so far very little cash is being disbursed to auto dealers:

The federal government has only reimbursed auto dealers for 2 percent of the claims they've submitted through the popular "cash for clunkers" program, a Pennsylvania congressman said, calling on the Obama administration to help speed up the process.

Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., called for "immediate action" to address the problem in a statement Sunday, after writing a letter to President Obama Saturday expressing his concerns.

In the letter, Sestak said only 2 percent of claims have been paid and that four of every five applications have been "rejected for minor oversight."

In recent days, auto dealers across the country have been complaining that the reimbursement payments are slow to process. And they said some of their applications were being rejected because of apparent procedural issues. The statistics Sestak cited suggest those complaints are not based on isolated incidents.

Staffing could be one problem. According to sales data summarized by Transportation Department officials, dealers have submitted requests for rebates on 338,659 vehicles sold.

But while Congress just expanded the $1 billion program by $2 billion, the Department of Transportation says a staff of just 225 people is reviewing those claims.

And these people want to run your health care...