Tim Pawlenty Should Have Stuck Around

Tim Pawlenty, the GOP voters turn their lonely eyes to you.  From Jonah Goldberg:

Looking back on the events of 2011, who do you think has more regrets for his bad decisions, Hosni Mubarak or former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty? . . .

All Pawlenty did was blow his entirely plausible shot at the presidency. . . .

Let's hop into the way-back machine. Pawlenty's plan was to be the alternative to Mitt Romney. He launched a huge political operation, perhaps to scare off other candidates, which required an equally huge fundraising effort to sustain it.

In order to justify the money he was asking of donors, he had to do well in the Iowa straw poll in August. He came in third to Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul. Pawlenty quit the race the next day.

Tactically, Pawlenty's mistakes are too numerous to count. But strategically, Pawlenty had the right idea: Be the most electable candidate to the right of Romney.

If T-Paw had stuck it out he'd probably be getting a lot of good attention these days. I thought he'd be a pretty good candidate against Obama and was kind of surprised when he bailed from the race so early.

Gov. Bobby Jindal Endorses Rick Perry

I posted this via Twitter earlier:

Former Gov. and 1st GOP loser Pawlenty endorses Romney. Current Gov. and rising star Jindal endorses Perry. Game Perry.

The story:

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is backing Rick Perry for president, a major endorsement for the Texas governor as the campaign for the Republican nomination enters the crucial fall stretch of the primary calendar, a source tells CNN.

Perry wins that round. Bobby Jindal is a favorite of conservatives and a rising star in the party. That's going to mean more to conservatives than Pawlenty's endorsement of Romney.

First GOP Loser Endorses Final GOP Loser

From Jim Geraghty:

A bit of a shocker over in the Corner: former presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty endorses Mitt Romney.
Take a guess on which issue does not get mentioned in Pawlenty’s endorsement. Hint: It rhymes with “Obamneycare.”

Tim Pawlenty was the first GOP loser, bailing out of the race after the Iowa Straw Poll. Mitt Romney will be the final GOP loser when he finally concedes to Rick Perry.

Political Graphic of the Day

Five Thirty Eight, a NY Times Political blog, takes a look at the GOP field:

If I were doing the diagram I think I'd move Perry's marker to the left and down a bit from Pawlenty's.  I think Perry is much more electable than 538 thinks.

You can read the whole analysis here.

Pawlenty is the First Casualty

It's hard to believe anyone would base their future presidential campaign on the circus that is the Ames Straw Poll, but Tim Pawlenty has decided the results compel him to leave the race (from Big Government):

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty announced on Sunday he is dropping out of the Republican presidential contest, after a distant third place finish in a key test vote.

Pawlenty made the announcement after finishing with 2,293 votes Saturday in Iowa’s Ames Straw Poll — seen as a key indicator of who will fare well in early nominating contests next year — over 2,500 votes behind winner Representative Michele Bachmann and second place finisher Ron Paul.

The Pawlenty campaign, officially launched in May, “didn’t get the kind of traction and lift we had hoped coming out of the straw poll,” he told ABC’s “This Week.”

“I’m announcing on your show that I am ending my campaign for the presidency.”

The low-key Pawlenty — derided by detractors as bland and uncharismatic — is little known outside of his home state. He had hoped to position himself as a fiscal conservative who will shake up Washington.

Farewell T-Paw, we hardly knew ye.

At one point I thought he would be a good choice for president, especially given the dismal quality of the other contenders. However, he didn't prove himself to be the kind of dynamic leader the GOP will need to beat Obama in 2012. Better to get out now than drag a dead campaign for another several months.

UPDATE:  I see a number of people promoting the idea of T-Paw for VP.  No thanks.  We need an aggressive team on the GOP ticket next year.  Nice guys need not apply.

Perry's In. Romney, Bachmann, Paul, Huntsman, Pawlenty, Santorum, Gingrich, Cain... and Obama Hardest Hit

This is about as close to an official announcement as we'll get before Saturday:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry will make "a definitive announcement that he is in the 2012 race for the presidency Saturday," aides told Fox News.

The language is significant. For several days the Perry camp has said he would signal his intentions and announce later.

"This is it," the sources explain. No exploratory committee, no more deliberation.

Perry will spend most of next week on the road officially campaigning.

Team Perry acknowledges they had only been hinting about a run earlier, but now tells Fox News first that Saturday is the official launch.

The Iowa debate and Straw Poll are now official irrelevant.  Who do you think will be the first GOP candidate in the debate tonight to take a shot at Perry?  You know it's gonna happen.  I'm thinking Bachmann, but we'll see.

So, Who Won the Debate?

Everybody that didn't watch it.

Why does the GOP insist on giving the mainstream media control of their candidate debates? It's foolishness. CNN went out of their way to make sure the questions were directed away from issues that would be damaging to Obama. It was a waste of an evening.

Philip Klein offers his thoughts here. He picked three winners: Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann...and Rick Perry who didn't even appear.

My feelings - if Rick Perry gets in the race support for the rest of the field will dissolve.  C'mon, Rick - we need you!

Political Word of the Day

Coined by Tim Pawlenty: ObamneyCare, the unholy alliance of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama's health care plans.

That one's gonna leave a mark.  If we can figure out how to incorporate Romney's embrace of human-caused global warming I think we'll have a campaign killer.

Rush: Tim Pawlenty Has Guts

A lot of political pundits were a bit surprised yesterday when Rush Limbaugh complimented Tim Pawlenty after an interview on Rush's show.  Jim Geraghty reports via Morning Jolt:

Pawlenty came out of the gates officially Monday, and it's not a bad way to start your week to see Rush Limbaugh posting on his Facebook page, "One of the things that frustrates Republicans is that there seems to be this reluctance on the part of everybody in this party to take President Obama on. Governor Pawlenty is qualified and he has the guts, too."

The guts comment probably was spurred by this exchange:

RUSH: Wait a minute! Wait a minute. You, in Iowa, called for the end to ethanol subsidies?

PAWLENTY: Yes, I did.

RUSH: What was the reaction you got to that?

PAWLENTY: Nobody applauded at this particular moment in the speech, but I gotta tell you: It has to be done, and if we're not willing to tell the truth and we're not willing to actually do it, then we're all wasting our time and I'm gonna go down there and play golf with you because we're just a debating society and wasting our time. Because this is it. It's gonna [be] mathematically irretrievable to get this thing back after this next election. So I'm swinging for the fences, not because I wanted to get elected but because we're gonna save this country and we're gonna do it [by] telling the truth, and the American people --

RUSH: Now --

PAWLENTY: Go ahead.

RUSH: That's politically gutsy because the theory is in a campaign for the nomination, you gotta get the base. I mean, you've gotta say what it takes to get elected, and certainly questioning ethanol subsidies in Iowa is not the way to do that.

Without question going to Iowa and calling for an end to ethanol subsidies is a gutsy move, and while it may be politically questionable, it's the right thing to do. We're pouring billions of dollars into an inefficient fuel that will not free us from foreign oil and will not "save the planet" from global warming. It's also driving up the cost of every food item that uses corn or corn byproducts. It's time to stop it, and kudos to Pawlenty for making the call.

Pawlenty's In

No real surprise - former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is running for president:

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced his candidacy for president in a in an Internet video on Sunday night, highlighting his blue-collar roots and pledging to be candid about the country’s economic challenges.

The video precedes a speech Monday in Des Moines, Iowa, where the former Minnesota governor had been expected to make the official announcement of his campaign.

“Tomorrow, my first campaign stop will be in Iowa, and that’s where I’m going to begin a campaign that tells the American people the truth,” Mr. Pawlenty says in the video. “I’m Tim Pawlenty, and I’m running for president of the United States.”

The video can be seen at: http://www.timpawlenty.com/

Mr. Pawlenty says in his announcement that “we need a president who understands that our problems are deep and who has the courage to face them. President Obama doesn’t. I do.”

He's going to have a hard time generating a lot of excitement for his campaign, though at this point he's probably the best of the announced candidates.

Huck's Out, So Who Benefits?

Besides the voters, that is. Katrina Trinko at The Corner has some reactions:

It’s unlikely that Mike Huckabee’s decision to forgo a presidential run will significantly boost any candidate.

“I don’t think anybody gains tremendously from this,” says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “I can see three or four candidates who can pick off social conservatives or Southerners or blue collar Republicans and Independents. I just don’t see there being a real Huckabee bloc that moves en masse to anybody.”

Sabato thinks that Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty are among those who could gain some of the social conservative voters that have backed Mike Huckabee, while southern voters might drift to Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

One candidate who might not pick up votes from Huckabee’s decision: Mitt Romney.

“He hates Mitt Romney,” Sabato says. “Given that intense dislike, one has to assume that he will at least make comments hurtful to Romney and maybe endorse one of the other candidates at some point to try to stop Romney, if indeed Romney’s moving forward.”

Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa Republican Party, sees Santorum as gaining the most in Iowa from Huckabee’s decision.

“I would say Bachmann as well, but Bachmann’s not even to an exploratory stage yet, so it’s not like she can rush in there and actively seek out these votes,” Robinson says. “So I think it’s Santorum who’s going to benefit from this.”

Robinson also points out that Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, could have a “significant” impact on the caucuses again this year if he chooses to endorse a candidate.

I remember hearing  in 2008 about some of the things Romney did to Huckabee from a Huckabee campaign insider, and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if Huck makes it his personal mission to end Romney's campaign.

The First GOP Debate in Review

I think the Daily Caller pretty well sums it up:

Pizza magnate beats actual elected officials in first GOP presidential debate -- If Thursday night's debate in Greenville, South Carolina, is any indication, GOP presidential candidates aren't ready to go bare-knuckle for the presidency. For instance: Given the chance to deliver a crippling gut punch to Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty (a product of meat-packing, in case you didn't hear him the first dozen times) whiffed. "Well, Governor Romney is not here to defend himself so I’m not going to pick on him or the position he took in Massachusetts,” Pawlenty said of his likely competitor's policy predecessor to Obamacare. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, the light in every libertarian's eye, answered with word salad when asked about withdrawing from Afghanistan. “I believe that timetable should be tomorrow,” Johnson said, “though I realize that tomorrow may be several months.” Rick Santorum, who lost his Pennsylvania Senate seat in an avalanche in 2006, claimed to know a thing or two about "beating" unbeatable Democratic candidates, although we think he may have meant "losing to." Ron Paul railed against the fed and trial lawyers. Every debate must have a winner and a loser (and also a best in show), and to that end, pizza magnate Herman Cain was declared last night's winner by Frank Luntz's focus group, despite having nothing authoritative to say about the war in Afghanistan. 

There's no reason for the GOP to be debating this early in the cycle. It only gives the Democrats ammunition to use against the potential candidates.

Romney Should Stop Exploring

Yesterday, on the fifth anniversary of Romneycare in Massachusetts, Mitt Romney announced the establishment of his presidential exploratory committee.  I think he should stop exploring.  It ain't gonna happen.  Mitt's not going to be president, and I frankly doubt he'll be the nominee.

Look at this CNN poll as reported by Dave Wiegel:

Trump's support comes largely from Romney, who falls to his lowest support in two years.
Huckabee 19%
Trump 19% (+9)
Palin 12%
Gingrich 11% (-3)
Romney 11% (-7)
Paul 7% (-1)
Bachmann 5% (+5)
Daniels 3%
Pawlenty 2% (-1)
Santorum 2% (-1)
Barbour * (-1)

Here's the field without Trump:
Huckabee 24%
Gingrich 16%
Palin 16%
Romney 16%
Paul 9%
Daniels 4%
Pawlenty 3%
Santorum 2%

Romney is banking on the GOP's bad habit of choosing "whoever's next" and since he gave John McCain the best run in 2008, he's "next". We don't want to make that mistake again.

At this point I'm almost hoping Donald Trump makes a serious run at it. With a GOP field this lackluster at least he'd add some excitement.

Most Open GOP Field in 50 Years

Either nobody really wants the job, or Republicans just can't find anyone they really like:

There's nothing typical about this GOP field.

For more than half-a-century, the race for the Republican presidential nomination has always featured a clear front runner at this point in the campaign, according to a Gallup analysis out Monday. Not this time.

Those early Republican front-runners in past contests have had good odds, and have gone on to win the nomination in 8 out of 10 competitive Republican races since 1952.

While today Mike Huckabee has a slim lead among Republican and Republican-leaning voters with 18 percent of the vote, no one has made wide strides away from the pack. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are each the pick of 16 percent.

The 2008 election is the only case surveyed by Gallup in which the eventual nominee gained front-runner status late in the campaign cycle. In most elections, the nominee had netted that status by March.

The 2012 field's deviation from the familiar pattern of nominating the heir apparent could have consequences for fundraising and party cohesion beyond the race for the nomination, the analysis notes.

Let's see:

• Mitt Romney - Romneycare, part-time conservative
• Newt Gingrich - Baggage
• Sarah Palin - Baggage
• Mike Huckabee - Meh
• Rick Santorum - Can't win
• Ron Paul - Nuts
• Donald Trump - Seriously?  He could end up being the Ross Perot of 2012.
• Tim Pawlenty - Name recognition problem
• Mitch Daniels - Too willing to compromise
• Jon Huntsman - Who?
• Haley Barbour  - thick-as-molasses Southern accent may be a problem in the north.
• Herman Cain - Hate to say it, but I don't think America is going to be ready for another black president anytime soon.
• Michele Bachmann - You think Sarah Palin's been demonized, wait until you see what they do to Bachmann.
• Chris Christie - Has said numerous times he doesn't want to run in 2012.  I believe him.

Can someone other than these folks still jump into the fray and win the nomination?  I hope so.

Jerry Springer: Hey Libs, Picking on Palin is Stupid

I never expected Jerry Springer to be the voice of reason, but his advice to his fellow liberals is...well, pretty reasonable:

There is something about former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin that really upsets the left and she often finds herself in their crosshairs as a target of ridicule and scorn. But by putting such contempt on display, is the left damaging itself?

In an appearance on New York City WABC radio’s “Goodman to Go” podcast hosted by David Goodman, Jerry Springer admitted a distinct disagreement with Palin’s world view. However, he also observed she has some redeeming qualities.

“I don’t want her to be president,” Springer said. “I don’t agree with her views. But I would never say anything mean about her. I think she is incredibly charismatic. I think she takes her religion very seriously and her views very seriously. I don’t think there’s anything mean-spirited about her.”

But here’s where Springer advised his fellow liberals not to be so quick to demonize Palin. He explained that by doing so, one runs the risk of offending others because there are people that identify with the former Alaska governor.

“I think where liberals may be doing the wrong thing is when they try to make fun of her because they’re making fun of a large section of America that has those fundamental beliefs that she has,” he continued. “And I think that’s dangerous. I don’t think that’s right to do. So I can honestly disagree with her, but I would never say anything disrespectful of her.”

As we've seen with the anti-Tea Party and more recently with the Wisconsin protests, there's an almost genetic need of liberals to belittle and mock their political enemies, especially when they have no facts to back up their arguments. This has been true of Palin's critics since the very beginning. There's something about her that drives them absolutely nuts, and so they worked very hard to establish a meme that she was stupid. Nothing could be further from the truth and she's played her detractors like a Stradivarius.

The left won't listen to Springer.  The attacks on Palin will continue, and with each attack her supporters will become even more committed.

However committed they might be, though, Palin does not show signs of running for president (from Mike Allen):

BIG SIGN SARAH PALIN ISN’T RUNNING: Neither she, nor anyone on her behalf, is courting top donors, early-state activists or experienced operatives – all of whom are getting locked down, day by day.

--THE LIKELY GOP FIELD, in order of relevance: 1) Mitt Romney, 2) Tim Pawlenty, 3) Haley Barbour, 4) Jon Huntsman, 5) Newt Gingrich, 6) Rick Santorum.

If that's all we got, we lose.

The Donald To Speak at CPAC

The annual CPAC conference (conservative Woodstock) kicks off today and there will be a surprise appearance from The Donald:

Rumored presidential candidate Donald Trump will make a surprise visit to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington today. He plans to address the convention in the afternoon. The decision to attend CPAC was pushed by Trump’s longtime political advisor Roger Stone, and indicates the billionaire real estate mogul is becoming serious about seeking the Republican nomination for president next year.

Trump has been hinting at his desire to run for months. “For the first time in my life, I am absolutely thinking about it,” he told MSNBC in October. According to Newsmax, Trump is “telling friends he has decided he will definitely run.” And although he denied any involvement when someone began mysteriously polling New Hampshire residents about their thoughts on a Trump campaign, he still made sure to tell Fox News that he heard the results were “amazing.”

Trump has a lot of good ideas, and he's been very good on some key issues. However, I would worry a little bit about turning his ego loose in the White House.

The Donald isn't the only potential 2012 candidate planning to speak at CPAC.  There are 14 more:

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson,  Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton.

Of course, some of those people either have no plans to run or can't possibly win despite many attempts (see Ron Paul).  The one most conspicuous name missing is Sarah Palin who has been regularly invited but has never attended a CPAC gathering.  And count on Ron Paul to do well, or even win, the straw poll.   The Paulinistas are unusually good at stacking these meaningless polls.

Michele Bachmann opened with a bang. Here "Hu's your daddy" line is already getting rave reviews from the pundits.

Political Video of the Day

Is this the opening of a presidential campaign or the trailer for a big budget adventure movie?

Today's Reading List

Former Minnesota Governor and possible 2012 GOP hopeful Tim Pawlenty has a new book out today.  Kind of a prerequisite for a presidential run.

The GOP 17

Republican voters will have a lot of choices...for at least a couple of primaries...when they go to pick the 2012 nominee who will face Barack Obama (or perhaps Hillary Clinton).  Here's the list from Washington Whispers:

The A-Team Nine

- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the front-runner, largely because he was the runner-up to Sen. John McCain in 2008.

- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has recently made a name for herself by endorsing winning Tea Party candidates.

- Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a social conservative in his second term.

- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a fiscal conservative in his second term.

- Mike Huckabee, a Fox host and former 2008 presidential candidate.

- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

- South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a conservative and darling of the party for defeating former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.

- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose budget cutting in his first year has impressed many in GOP ranks who want him to apply his touch to Washington.

- Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, already running and showing his conservative side.

The Eight Long Shots

- Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, a hero to fiscal conservatives.

- South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a Palinesque conservative who's helped steer the U.S. Senate to the right.

- Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the gadfly 2008 candidate who kept a very loyal following.

- South Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, who hasn't even won yet but is being heralded as the new Sarah Palin.

- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush who has rejected a run but who still gets kudos for being the "smart Bush" for his successful two terms in Florida.

- Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who'd be the social conservative in the race.

- Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton, a foreign policy hawk who conservatives adore.

- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal whose effort to protect his shores from the Gulf Oil Spill won him notoriety lost when he gave a lackluster national political address in 2009.

Let me run through the names:

• Mitt Romney - The GOP has a bad habit of nominating "whoever's next", and that would be Romney.  But he's still got the Mormon problem...and the personality problem.  He's also the author of Romneycare, the MA version of Obamacare that's proving to be a fiscal nightmare.
• Sarah Palin - Quitting the governor's job in Alaska, no matter how justified, will kill her chances. That and the caricature that has been created by the media. 
• Haley Barbour - I like him.  He was a great RNC Chairman, has been a good governor through some pretty tough times for his state (Katrina hit MS hard), and is a very smart politician.  His deep South accent won't help him in certain parts of the country.
• Mitch Daniels - Could be a strong candidate, though he's not some major name recognition work to do.
• Mike Huckabee - I'm not convinced he wants to give up his Fox TV gig to get back into a fight he probably can't win.
• Newt Gingrich - Good idea man but carrying way too much baggage.
• John Thune - Impressive guy but will have to get a lot better known.
• Chris Christie - Won't run.  Too soon.  He needs to show what he can do in New Jersey first.
• Tim Pawlenty - I like him, but another guy who is not well known outside of Minnesota.
• Mike Pence - Solid conservative who could be a tough candidate if he can get the media to pay attention to him.
• Jim DeMint - I doubt DeMint will run.  Very conservative but not that well known.
• Ron Paul - Will run a vanity campaign, but not a chance of winning anything.
• Nikki Haley - Hasn't done anything yet.  If she ran she'd be another fad candidate and we don't need that.
• Jeb Bush - Great guy, great governor, bad last name.
• Rick Santorum - Unlikely to get far in the primaries.
• John Bolton - As I said the other day, there aren't enough adult diapers in all the Wal-Marts in the country to handle the liberals who'd lose control if Bolton became president.
• Bobby Jindal - Very smart guy who at this point would probably be a better VP candidate.

Tim Pawlenty Shuts Down Obamacare in Minnesota

The Minnesota Governor and president wannabe is putting his foot down:

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty Tuesday ordered all state agencies to not to submit applications to any health care funding from the federal government related to the health care overhaul.

Any applications must be either required by law or approved by the governor’s office. …

“Obamacare is an intrusion by the federal government into personal health care matters and it’s an explosion of federal spending that does nothing to make health care more affordable,” Pawlenty said in a news release.

I guess Eric Holder will have to sue him and complain about him to the UN like he did Arizona.