Election Night(mare) Scenarios

Election Night(mare) Scenario #1

Following the debacle of the 2000 election, the networks were required to make some changes in how they called various races. You’ll remember that the nets called Florida a full hour before the precincts in the panhandle (a very Republican area) closed, and thus suppressed the vote in that area. Without that early call, there’s a good chance that the heavy Bush vote would have greatly widened the margin of victory and eliminated the 36 day ordeal that we all went through.

The nets are now required to wait until all the polls in a given state are closed before calling that state for any particular candidate. But are there any particular requirements for calling the election without giving the results in a particular state?

We all know that the media is in the tank for Kerry and will do whatever it takes to promote a Kerry win. We also know that the nets are getting exit poll info for each state, and although they may not be able to call a state before the polls close in that state, I don’t believe there’s any requirement that they abstain from calling the entire race if the exit polls indicate a winner.

Here’s the scenario: It’s 8pm Eastern time (5 in the West) and the exit polling indicates that although it’s very close in some western states, Kerry just may win. Would a network, like for instance CBS, consider calling the race for Kerry that early in the evening? If they did what would happen?

First of all, the early call would be picked up by every other media outlet, either as a news item, or by making their own call in fear of being left behind. In those states where polls are still open Democrats would be energized to go ahead and vote so they can be part of the winning side, and would Republicans would undoubtedly be discouraged and tempted to stay home. A narrow Bush win in a state like Colorado could suddenly become a Kerry win and in effect, the early call becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Not only could the presidential race be affected, but the control of Congress could also be changed by this tactic.

Given the way the media has carried the water for Kerry in this campaign, I’m not so sure that this couldn’t happen. My guess is that the nets, who are so concerned about being first to call key states and races, might just be thinking about such a move in the event of a close election night.

Now I'm sure most people would think this scenario impossible, that there's no way a network would put its credibility on the line like this. Anyone remember the CBS National Guard story backed up by forged documents that any idiot could see were bad? I think most nets would be happy to risk their credibility if they thought they could put their guy in the White House.

Election Night(mare) Scenario #2

Scenario #2 is a variation on #1 above. We already know that the Kerry camp is planning to declare victory as early as possible in order to give legitimacy to any claims they might have. We also know that both campaigns will have extensive exit polling info as election day wears on, and will begin to get a picture of how the race is going by early evening.

Here’s scenario #2: It’s 8pm Eastern time and the Kerry camp senses that they just might win. Instead of waiting until the wee hours of the morning for a call from the networks, Kerry marches in to his election night ballroom and declares victory. Many Midwestern and Western states still have polls open, and again the early call becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and Dems continue to vote and Republicans stay home.

But what if he’s wrong and the tide turns back toward Bush as the evening wears on. Kerry has now set the table for all the legal challenges which are sure to come by claiming that the Republicans have once again stolen the election. He can claim that only fraud and theft could have turned the numbers around, and the Bush will be keeping his job illegitimately.

During the ensuing legal chaos, Kerry will be claiming the high road and Bush will be on the defensive as the media and their Dem cohorts struggle to find a way to anoint Kerry.

We know that Kerry is only interested in one thing – winning the election, and I’m confident he and his cronies will do everything legal or illegal to make that happen.