Cheney Slaps Down Kerry on bin Laden Poll

You have to love Dick Cheney. When the bin Laden tape came out, the first thing the Kerry campaign did was run a poll to see how they should respond. How very Clinton of them. Drudge has the story.

"The thing that I find amazing about it is that John Kerry's first response was to go conduct a poll," Cheney told supporters in Fort Dodge, Iowa. "He went into the field ... to find out what he should say about this tape of Osama bin Laden."

"It's as though he doesn't know what he believes until he has to go and check the polls, his finger in the air, to see which way the wind is blowing and then he'll make a decision," said the vice president, who offered no evidence to back up his claim. "George Bush (news - web sites) doesn't need a poll to know what he believes, especially about Osama bin Laden."

"I don't think that's a man who is up to the task of being commander in chief," Cheney said of Kerry.

Mason Dixon Poll Numbers Looking Good

We've already talked about Zogby and the problems he had in 2002. The Mason Dixon Poll was much more accurate that year, and here are the latest numbers from the Kerry Spot:

Mason Dixon was the most correct pollster in 2002, picking the right winner in 22 out of 23 polls. Their average error on each candidate was 1.8 percent.

Their results released Saturday night:

Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 45

Arkansas: Bush 51, Kerry 43

Colorado: Bush 50, Kerry 43

Ohio: Bush 48, Kerry 46

Iowa: Bush 49, Kerry 44

Michigan: Kerry 47, Bush 45

Missouri: Bush 49, Kerry 45

New Hampshire: Kerry 47, Bush 45

Nevada: Bush 50, Kerry 44

West Virginia: Bush 51, Kerry 43

Oregon: Kerry 50, Bush 44

Pennsylvania: Kerry 48, Bush 46

Wisconsin: Kerry 48, Bush 46

Minnesota: Bush 48, Kerry 47

New Mexico: Bush 49, Kerry 45

(By comparison, in 2002 Zogby picked the wrong winner in 5 out of 17, with an average error on each candidate by 2.5.)

Wake Up, America!

Wake up, America, was the rallying cry of John Kerry during Friday's campaign events. That is also the cry of someone who realizes that his lifelong ambition is slipping away. The only reason America would have to "wake up" in Kerry's view is because the internal polling is showing that America is not warming up to the idea of a Kerry presidency. We'll find out on Tuesday (hopefully).

Also, Kerry's step-son, Chris Heinz, decided to get into the act by calling President Bush a "coke head" at a rally yesterday. Perhaps Heinz knows what one looks like from personal experience, but I doubt that he's an authority on Bush, and although this charge has been bandied about for years, there has never been a single piece of evidence to indicate that it's true. It sounds like Heinz has been seeing the internal polls as well.

Cronkite - Most Trusted to Crazy Old Man

Another gem from the Kerry Spot:

Walter Cronkite, on Larry King Live last night:

CRONKITE: What we just heard. So now the question is basically right now, how will this affect the election? And I have a feeling that it could tilt the election a bit. In fact, I'm a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing. The advantage to the Republican side is to get rid of, as a principal subject of the campaigns right now, get rid of the whole problem of the al Qaqaa explosive dump. Right now, that, the last couple of days, has, I think, upset the Republican campaign.

What on earth do you have to say for the general public to declare, "That's crazy talk" these days?

The Arrogance of Evil

Another hat tip to the Kerry Spot for this analysis of the Bin Laden tape:

Had a short conversation with Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative, today. Talked about the bin Laden tape, and his analysis echoed much of what you had seen elsewhere - this makes terrorism THE issue of the election, and Bush is now likely to win in something approaching a landslide.

The part that I thought was most worthy of sharing with Kerry Spot readers was when I asked, "What does Osama bin Laden think he's doing here? What's his game? What did he hope to accomplish with this tape?"

"The arrogance of evil," Obi-Wan said, sounding a bit like his movie namesake. "He really thinks the American people will listen to him. Every dictator is like this, and Saddam used to do this all the time when he did interviews with Western media. He's arrogant enough to think that if he speaks to the American people, we will actually come around to his view."

This would fit Osama’s utterly unrealistic expectation of how America would respond to 9/11. He expected us to fold up shop and leave the Middle East, and instead he's sitting around getting cave rash while Afghani women and men just elected a pro-American leader while joyously celebrating democracy in the world's spotlight.

Life is full of disappointments, Osama. My guess is you have some more awaiting you just around the corner.

GOP Insider Update

The Kerry Spot has another conversation with a GOP insider:

I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” This information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.

The big picture is, Bush has the momentum and is playing offense, while Kerry is on the defensive going into Election Day. A key panic button moment for Kerry campaign came on Friday, when the candidate lectured the American people to “wake up.”

The 72-hour Get-Out-The-Vote Operation has been launched. Starting Friday and continuing through Tuesday, 150,000 volunteers in the most competitive states are mobilized and will contact 18 million voters to get the President’s supporters to the polls.

This unprecedented voter turnout operation is built to negate the traditional advantage that Democrats enjoyed on turnout during the 1990s with unions and African-American churches.

The Bush team believes the personal touch is going to make a big difference. The Bush-Cheney ‘04 turnout effort will be driven by volunteers, acting on their personal beliefs and enthusiasm for this President. The Kerry campaign has turned over their grassroots operation to 527 organizations that are relying on paid employees who do not know the voters they are contacting. Will a voter be more persuaded by contact from a neighbor or contact from a stranger who is being paid to do it?

The lack of commentary yesterday about Ohio should not be interpreted as a lack of good news. The Bush team is pleased with the latest poll by the Cleveland Plain Dealer shows the President up by three points (pre-Arnie sample), and volunteers will contact over 1.2 million voters.

Two-thirds of the president’s time is spent campaigning in states that Al Gore won in 2000, and the President leads the polls in Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico — all blue states set to turn red. Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania are all close, too close for Kerry’s comfort.

Maybe this is spin, and maybe this is happy talk. But if something is going wrong - like some red state looks like it’s going to flip - then I suspect the big cheeses would have an incentive to warn the middle cheeses and prepare them for the disappointment. Something along the lines of “Yes New Hampshire looks shaky, but we can afford to lose it, it’s only four electoral votes.” [That’s my speculation on the Granite State, not anything I’ve heard from this GOP insider.]

Letter From Rick Warren, Pastor of Saddleback Church

My pastor, Rick Warren of Saddleback Church, sent this message out to all of our church members, and I think it's worthy of passing on to you:

Subject: The Most Important Election


Dear Saddleback Church family,

Tuesday, November 2nd, will be one of the most important elections Americans have had in 50 years. How could that be?

Because up to four of the Supreme Court Justices will likely retire during the next presidential term and their replacements will be selected by whomever is the next president. These new judges will affect the future of America for at least the next 40 years. It would be difficult to overestimate the impact that these judges will have on our lives, our families, our culture, and the direction of this nation.

Presidents serve for only 4 years, so they can only make a limited impact. But Supreme Court Justices serve for life, and they are the ones who decide on issues like abortion, gay marriages, human cloning, harvesting babies for stem-cell research, revoking the tax exemption of churches, removing "under God" from the flag pledge, and "in God we trust" from our money. In most ways, the Supreme Court has far more influence and impact on our day-to-day lives. This extremely important fact has been overlooked in most of the campaigning.

President Bush and Senator Kerry have VERY different opinions about the type of people who should become Supreme Court Justices. They could not have more opposite views about these matters. Either man will shape the court in very different ways.

If the members of our congregation fail to vote on Tuesday, we are actually surrendering our responsibility to choose the direction of our country for the next 40 years. If we do not vote, we have no right to criticize or complain when unbiblical decisions are made by the court in the decades ahead.

Over the past several months at Saddleback, we've been urging our members each week to register to vote. We even arranged to have a voter registration booth set up on our church patio because we believe it's that important that every Christian citizen exercises his or her right to vote for those who will govern us.

During the last presidential election in the United States, there were about 4 million Christians who weren't even registered to vote! To me, that is inexcusable when you consider what the Bible says about our responsibility as citizens and when you consider the many, many men and women who've given their lives to provide and protect our freedom to vote.

The U.S. election of 2000 was a clear reminder that every vote counts and that every voter has a duty to be involved. As church leaders, we know our congregations are not allowed to endorse specific candidates, and it's important for us to recognize that there can be multiple opinions among Bible-believing Christians when it comes to debatable issues such as the economy, social programs, social security, and the war in Iraq.

But for those of us who accept the Bible as God's Word and know that God has a unique, sovereign purpose for every life, I believe there are 5 issues that are non-negotiable. To me, they're not even debatable because God's Word is clear on these issues. In order to live a purpose-driven life - to affirm what God has clearly stated about his purpose for every person he creates - we must take a stand by finding out what the candidates believe about these five issues, and then vote accordingly.

Here are five questions to ask when considering who to vote for in this election:

1. What does each candidate believe about abortion and protecting the lives of unborn children?

2. What does each candidate believe about using unborn babies for stem-cell harvesting?

3. What does each candidate believe about homosexual marriage?

4. What does each candidate believe about human cloning?

5. What does each candidate believe about euthanasia - the killing of elderly and invalids?

Please, please do not forfeit your responsibility on these crucial issues! This election REALLY counts more than most others have.

Be sure to vote, and be sure to encourage every Christian you know to vote on Tuesday. If you are able to vote early, do so. Then ask all your Christian friends on Tuesday "Have you voted yet?" and pray for godly leaders to be elected.

Pastor Rick Warren

Cheney Headed To Hawaii

Dick Cheney will be heading to Hawaii this weekend, and not just to work on his tan (he doesn't spray his on like Kerry does). The Aloha State has suddenly joined the ranks of swing states with a pair of polls showing Bush slightly ahead. The Kerry campaign is sending Al Gore out there along with some money for ads. I believe Gore will be speaking in between modeling assignments for those big wooden tikis.

Mark Steyn has a good take on the whole Hawaii thing, and I'm with Mark. If the Vice President needs someone to help out in Honolulu, how about having Air Force 2 swing by and pick me up. I'm free most of the weekend.

What to Expect This Weekend

Here are some things to look for this weekend:

1. The polls will show a shrinking Bush lead and the media will be ecstatic.

Why - Weekend polls are notoriously favorable to Democrats because Dems tend to stay home and answer the phone on the weekends, while Republicans are out and about with their families doing kid stuff on Saturday and church stuff on Sunday. Republicans are harder to reach Friday night through Sunday night, and so tend to show up less in the polls.

2. The Bin Laden tape will be all the rage in the mainstream media. My guess is the network anchors will play it up in the hope it takes away support from Bush, but reminding people of 9/11 and the guy who caused it probably won't hurt Bush at all.

3. All the talking head shows on Sunday will be dominated by discussions of why the President is not doing better in the polls, and can he still pull out the election. Don't expect the media to give Bush any breaks at all between now and Tuesday.

4. Kerry will be portrayed as "confident", and we will all be reminded of his reputation as a "good closer". The race will be described as his to lose.

5. Finally, CBS will spring one more Bush bash during 60 Minutes on Sunday night. I can't imagine what the subject will be, nor can I imagine that any serious people will care.

Osama Campaigns for Kerry

A new videotape has surfaced today (just 4 days before the election?) in which Osama Bin Laden basically campaigns for Kerry. Is this an endorsement Kerry really wants? My guess is Kerry will spend the remaining days until the election loudly proclaiming that Bush failed to get Bin Laden and now here he is still out and about and threatening trouble.

From the early quotes I'm reading, it looks as though the Kerry campaign was successful in getting their talking points to Bin Laden before he made the video. The same language could have just as easily come from Joe Lockehart or Terry McAuliffe.

UPDATE - What does it say about the current state of al Qaeda that they can only produce a videotape before the election, and not a terrorist attack?

Innovative Bush Endorsement

Here's a Bush endorsment in its simplist form - one that even a lefty could understand.

Who Took the Missing Munitions - We Did

The Pentagon held a news briefing this morning which featured Army Major Austin Pearson who told the assembled newsies that he and his crew removed 250 tons of ammo and explosives from the now famous Al-Quaqaa dump. The removed material was later destroyed. Fox News has the story on the news briefing.

This has the potential to be a real problem for Kerry. All week he's been accusing the President (and in effect the military) of incompetence, and now the military has struck back and proven the NY Times story to be basically bogus. Instead of not having a plan to safeguard these stockpiles (as accused by Kerry), our military performed spectacularly and have to date destroyed 400,000 tons of very bad stuff (remember, this whole story was about 377 tons, or less than 1/1000th of the total we've destroyed so far).

This story was clearly an "October surprise" attempt by the UN, CBS and the NY Times, and it looks like Kerry will be the one with the surprised look on his face Tuesday night.

Today's Insider Republican News

The Kerry Spot has received another update from their unnamed senior Republican campaign official:

Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.

There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?

In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.

In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.

In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.

In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.

Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later.

Now who would you rather have stumping for you - Arnold and Rudy, or Michael Moore and Jesse Jackson. No contest.

Zogby Poll - All Knowing, or All Nothing

The Zogby Poll is often looked to by political experts as the "holy grail" of polling, mainly due to the fact that Zogby nailed the 2000 election. However, the same folks that lionize Zogby rarely mention the fact that he was way off in the 2002 midterm elections.

In the past two days there have been interviews with Zogby in which he has predicted a win by Bush, and a win by Kerry. Is Zogby trying to cover all bases, or is he in effect admitting that he doesn't really know what's going to happen.

The fact is, the problem with most polling is the turnout models that they are using may be way off. That was certainly the case in 2002 when the Republican turnout machine was significantly ramped up from 2000, and given the craziness going on this year, turnout could be very different from what all the polls think is going to happen.

Bottom line - we could see a close race, or a blowout (either way) on Tuesday. I don't think anyone really knows.

What to Look For on Tuesday Night

The company that's doing the exit polling for the networks has an article that gives you a heads up as to what to expect on Tuesday night. Right now they predict only a 50/50 chance of making a definitive call for President by 2am EST. Could be a very long night.

Kerry Campaign in Deep Al-Qaqaa

This from the Kerry Spot - I've highlighted my favorite line of the day:

Just heard from a source close to the campaign, tuned in to the conversations at the highest levels.

According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers.

They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.

The internal polls show a significant lead in Florida (outside margin of error) and Arkansas is out of play, with a Bill Clinton visit or without. As for most of the other big ones - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, internal polls show all too close to call.

Michigan is seriously looking like a pickup - Bush and Cheney could be there four times in the last four days.

An exit poll of those who have already voted show Bush ahead by 15 points! [UPDATE: This is ahead 15 points overall, nationwide, not just in Michigan. Obviously, those who have already voted are only a small, small segment of the electorate at large, so one should not read too much into this number. But it is interesting.]

Undecided voters appear to be breaking Bush’s way - some days he has a slight lead, other days it’s right around 50-50. (Note this would be considerably better than the 1/3 calculated that Bush needs here.

Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa.

Tommy Franks is going to enter this story and rip Kerry and the New York Times a new one. The Kerry folks are acting like they realized they have botched this story, and want to shift back to domestic topics. Lockhart, Bill Richardson on Imus — when asked about al-QaQaa, they dodge the question and quickly try to bring up other issues.

The campaign is going to avoid the Russian angle and go with the straightforward, “As the facts mount in this story, American people have a choice between believing Kerry-NYTimes-CBS or believing Bush and the Troops.”

This source close to the campaign didn’t say it, but I wonder if the Bush administration wants to deal with Russia in its own manner, and not have whatever diplomatic confrontations are going on behind the scenes complicated by a furious American electorate blaming Russia for hiding Iraq’s weapons and explosives.

ABC Terror Tape Update

It looks like ABC is bowing to pressure and will air the latest terror tape pn TV tonight, a tape which promises dire consequences if Bush/Cheney re-elected. You just have to know that ABC is terrified that this tape will push undecideds to Bush, especially after seeing how the opportunistic Kerry has handled the whole munitions dump story this week.

Boston Red Sox for Bush

There's at least one member of the World Champion Boston Red Sox (boy, I never thought I'd ever say that) supporting President Bush for reelection. Curt Schilling, one of the club's best pitchers, was on Good Morning America today and had this to say:

GIBSON: "Well, well said, Curt and Shonda. You both have certainly lifelong membership now in the Red Sox nation. It was a great thing to watch, and I think everybody – whether they were great Red Sox fans or not — had to admire what this team did. It was extraordinary, and one of the great stories of sport. And sport always produces such great stories. Curt, Shonda, great to have you with us. Congratulations."
SCHILLING: "And make sure you tell everybody to vote, and vote Bush next week."

How will that play in Boston? Let's hope there aren't any other champions from Boston in the next week or so.

UPDATE: It's reported that President Bush called Schilling from Air Force One this morning to congratulate him on the win and thank him for the endorsement. Word is that Schilling might be campaigning with the President this weekend in Pennsylvania where he used to play and is very popular.

UPDATE 2: Kerry was seen at a campaign stop today wearing a Red Sox cap that was not broken in. Caps with straight bills make the wearer look like..well, a dork.

On another baseball-related note, there's been some talk among bloggers that the Red Sox victory could actually prove to be a big problem for Kerry in New Jersey. There are lots of Yankee fans in New Jersey, and they were none too happy to see their team lose 4 straight to the Sox after being up 3-0. Some bloggers think the folks in Jersey will take out their frustrations on Bostonian Kerry at the ballot box. Right now New Jersey is very close, and if it goes to Bush, especially if it goes early in the evening, the election's all over.

Kerry Campaign's Last Stumble

Dick Morris (former Clinton aide turned Bush supporter) has a pretty good column in The New York Post today. Here's the opening paragraph:

ONCE again, John Kerry shows his instinct to go for the capillaries, rather than the jugular.

That kind of says it all. Read the whole column here.

More on the Missing Explosives

In Thursday's Washington Times, Bill Gertz tells us what really happened to the explosives at the now legendary Iraqi Al-Qaqaa ammo dump - the Russians moved it to Syria right before the war. Kerry has been accusing Bush and our military of screwing up and allowing these items to be looted after the war, but this clearly couldn't have happened giving the volume of material and the relatively short period that it could have occured.

Of course, it's not exactly a reach for Kerry to accuse the administration and the military of wrongdoing. He's been at it since 1971.

Dems Holding Their Nose As They Vote

Take a look at some of the "endorsments" that lefty writers and bloggers and giving to Kerry. Looks like there's some serious nose-holding going on here (hat tip Opinion Journal):

Other Than That, He'd Make a Great President--I
"I know few people enthused about John Kerry. His record is undistinguished, and where it stands out, mainly regrettable. He intuitively believes that if a problem exists, it is the government's job to fix it. He has far too much faith in international institutions, like the corrupt and feckless United Nations, in the tasks of global management. He got the Cold War wrong. He got the first Gulf War wrong. His campaign's constant and excruciating repositioning on the war against Saddam have been disconcerting, to say the least. I completely understand those who look at this man's record and deduce that he is simply unfit to fight a war for our survival. They have an important point--about what we know historically of his character and his judgment when this country has faced dire enemies. His scars from the Vietnam War lasted too long and have gone too deep to believe that he has clearly overcome the syndrome that fears American power rather than understands how to wield it for good."--Andrew Sullivan, endorsing John Kerry, The New Republic, Oct. 26

Other Than That, He'd Make a Great President--II
"I can't remember ever voting for anybody I disliked as much as I do John Kerry, at least not for president, but vote for him I will. I didn't have much use for Al Gore either, but I don't remember any real sense of hostility before punching the hole next to his name. . . . I can't persuade anybody to vote for a candidate for whom I can muster so little enthusiasm, but there must be an awful lot of people out there who are going to cast votes next week for Kerry who are, like me, discouraged by the prospect and needing one of those you-are-not-alone talks."--Mark Brown, endorsing John Kerry, Chicago Sun-Times, Oct. 27

Other Than That, He'd Make a Great President--III
"I remain totally unimpressed by John Kerry. Outside of his opposition to the death penalty, I've never seen him demonstrate any real political courage. His baby steps in the direction of reform liberalism during the 1990s were all followed by hasty retreats. His Senate vote against the 1991 Gulf War demonstrates an instinctive aversion to the use of American force, even when it's clearly justified. Kerry's major policy proposals in this campaign range from implausible to ill-conceived. He has no real idea what to do differently in Iraq. His health-care plan costs too much to be practical and conflicts with his commitment to reducing the deficit. At a personal level, he strikes me as the kind of windbag that can only emerge when a naturally pompous and self-regarding person marinates for two decades inside the U.S. Senate. If elected, Kerry would probably be a mediocre, unloved president on the order of Jimmy Carter."--Jacob Weisberg, endorsing John Kerry, Slate, Oct. 26

ABC Holding Terrorist Tape?

Matt Drudge is reporting the following:

In the last week before the election, ABCNEWS is holding on a videotaped message from a purported al Qaeda terrorist warning of a new attack on America, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

The terrorist claims on tape the next attack will dwarf 9/11. "The streets will run with blood," and "America will mourn in silence" because they will be unable to count the number of the dead. Further claims: America has brought this on itself for electing George Bush who has made war on Islam by destroying the Taliban and making war on Al Qaeda.

ABCNEWS strongly denies holding the tape back from broadcast over political concerns during the last days of the election.

Read the whole thing here.

Terrorism is not Kerry's strong suit. Could ABC be holding back this information from the US public out of fears that it will push some voters to Bush?

President Bush Has Had Enough

Listen to the President's own words from his speech today in Lancaster, PA (hat tip Kerry Spot).

“After repeatedly calling Iraq the ‘wrong war,’ and a ‘diversion,’ Senator Kerry this week seemed shocked to learn that Iraq was a dangerous place, full of dangerous weapons. The Senator used to know that, even though he seems to have forgotten it over the course of the campaign, but after all that’s why we’re there. Iraq was a dangerous place run by a dangerous tyrant who had a lot of weapons. We have seized or destroyed more than 400,000 tons of munitions, including explosives, and more than — thousands of different sites, and we’re continuing to round up more weapons everyday.

“I want to remind the American people, if Senator Kerry had his way, we would still be taking our 'global test.' Saddam Hussein would still be in power. He would control all those weapons and explosives and could have shared them with our terrorist enemies.

“Now the Senator is making wild charges about missing explosives when his top foreign policy adviser admits, quote, 'we do not know the facts.' Think about that. The Senator's denigrating the action of our troops and commanders in the field without knowing the facts. Unfortunately, that's part of a pattern of saying almost anything to get elected — like when Senator Kerry charged that our military failed to get Osama bin Laden at Tora Bora, even though our top military commander, General Tommy Franks, said the Senator's understanding of events does not square with reality, and our intelligence reports placed bin Laden in any of several different countries at the time. Our military is now investigating a number of possible scenarios including that the explosives may have been moved before our troops even arrived at the site. This investigation is important and it's ongoing — and a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your Commander in Chief.

"When it comes to your security, when it comes to the security of our families, my opponent takes a very different approach. He says that September the 11th did not change him much at all. And his policies make that clear. He says the War on Terror is primarily a law enforcement and intelligence-gathering operation. Well, September 11th changed me. I remember the day I was in the — at Ground Zero, September the 14th, 2001. It's a day I will never forget; there were workers in hard hats there yelling at me at the top of their lungs, 'whatever it takes.' I remember a man grabbed me by the arm, he looked me square in the eye, and he said, 'Do not let me down.' Ever since that day, I wake up every morning trying to figure out how to better protect America. I will never relent in defending America, whatever it takes."

Anyone who says that there is no difference between the candidates is clearly not paying attention.

The Coming October Surprise

If you've followed elections much, you know that candidates just love to spring stuff on their opponent at the last minute. We all remember the DUI charge against Bush in 2000, the groper story against Arnold by the LA Times in 2002, and there have been numerous other examples of last minute hit pieces. The favorite day for these attacks is the Thursday before the election - in other words, tomorrow.

What's going to come out tomorrow? Who knows. The NY Times thought they had a big story with the missing Iraqi explosives, but that has pretty much been dismantled by several other news outlets. CBS was going to run that story on the Oct. 31 60 minutes broadcast, but was preempted by the Times. Does 60 minutes have something else up their sleeve for this Sunday? Maybe they found some more forged documents.

Also, in what has to be the silliest story out there, the AP is trying to resurrect the Bush National Guard story for about the 6th time. That one lost its legs long ago.

The purpose for bringing these last minute attacks is to through the campaign into crisis mode, and push the last remaining undecideds away from the victim candidate. It nearly put Gore in the White House in 2000, and probably was a major cause of the 36 day debacle that we all went through.

I can't believe the media and democrats could possibly have anything left to throw at Bush. They've tried every angle, attacked on every issue, and are still behind in the polls. Even a major terrorist attack at this point would probably work against Kerry, not Bush. It would serve to remind people what it was like in the aftermath of 9/11 and how Bush responded the last time.

Let's hope for the best, but I'm quite confidant that some big story, manufactured or genuine, is going to break against one of the candidates in the next 48 hours.

Kerry Gets Another Endorsement

I don't think you'll find this endorsment on the official Kerry website (hat tip Kerry Spot):

Mohammad Amin Bashar, a leader of the Muslim Scholars Association, a hard-line clerical group that vocally supports the Iraqi insurgents, is a better political analyst than many folks here in the United States:

"If the U.S. Army suffered numerous humiliating losses, [Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John] Kerry would emerge as the superman of the American people," Bashar said.

Resistance leader Abu Jalal boasted that the mounting violence had already hurt Mr. Bush's chances.

"American elections and Iraq are linked tightly together," he told a Fallujah-based Iraqi reporter. "We've got to work to change the election, and we've done so. With our strikes, we've dragged Bush into the mud."


Read the whole thing.

Interesting Statistic, Though Probably Meaningless

Gallup has conducted a poll of early voters. It's estimated that about 9% of the total vote has already been cast through early voting or absentee voting, and the results so far - 51% Bush, 47% Kerry. The get-out-the-vote efforts on the part of both campaigns is in full swing, and the Republicans have a 96 hour effort planned that was very effective in 2002 - totally blew most of the pollsters away.

Why We Have the Electoral College

Many folks on the left bemoan the fact that the electoral college is still how we elect presidents. After all, they cry, how can you win the vote but lose the election? Well, take a look at this map from 2000 and maybe you'll see why the founders thought the electoral college a good idea. Do you want your president elected from just a few populous counties? (By the way, the red counties were won by Bush, the blue by Gore).




I expect that this year's map could look very similar, with perhaps a touch more red.

Governors Yes, Legislators No

There have been 43 presidents elected in this country since the original George W. back in the 1780's, and only 3 have come from the ranks of current legislators. There's a reason for that, and Terry Michael, a former Democrat operative, thinks he knows why and why it will play to Bush's advantage. His article, "Why Conflicted Voters Will Go For Bush" is pretty good reading (especially for a Democrat).

Battlegrounders

If you're REALLY into all the nitty gritty details of this election and want to see what's going on in each battleground state, you'll want to make frequent visits to Battlegrounders on National Review Online. Hugh Hewitt described it as crack cocaine for political junkies.

He Was For It Before He Was Against It

I'm not sure the Kerry folks know about this thing called the "Internet". Past statements of his keep popping up which contradict current statements of his. Here's another example from Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard:

EVER SINCE John Kerry decided his best tack in this campaign was to turn against the Iraq war, despite his past support for it, his core argument has been that it was a diversion from the war on terror. Iraq, he has been insisting, had nothing to do with that war, which is about al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, pure and simple. The administration erred, he now claims, by turning its attention to Iraq.

But it turns out that Kerry felt entirely differently at the time. In an interview with John McLaughlin on November 16, 2001--just two months after September 11 and before victory in Afghanistan was assured--Kerry was asked, "What do we have to worry about [in Afghanistan]?" Kerry answered:

I have no doubt, I've never had any doubt--and I've said this publicly--about our ability to be successful in Afghanistan. We are and we will be. The larger issue, John, is what happens afterwards. How do we now turn attention ultimately to Saddam Hussein? How do we deal with the larger Muslim world? What is our foreign policy going to be to drain the swamp of terrorism on a global basis? [Emphasis added]

So on November 16, 2001, with the war in Afghanistan but a few weeks old and Osama bin Laden not yet captured, John Kerry was raising the bar for the Bush administration, wondering when it would go after Saddam Hussein.

Will the New York Times, the Washington Post, or any other mainstream media take note of this remarkable statement?

Some Funny Political Stuff

There's some funny stuff out there about this election, in addition to all the serious stuff. David Zucker's hilarious ad promoted by the Club for Growth can be viewed here.

Here are some other examples courtesy of Fox News:

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart:

"Five leading politicians took to the morning shows. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush stopped by 'Good Morning America' for a chat, while John Kerry and Dick Cheney paid a visit to 'The Today Show.' Meanwhile, on CBS' 'Early Show,' Ralph Nader could be seen holding up a sign during their interview with Sarah Michelle Gellar."

"Our (election 2004) fiasco preview begins where the fiasco began last time: Florida. While the Sunshine State's 2000 debacle gave all of America 36 days of breezy, lighthearted fun, there were negative aspects as well, and the state has been warned by God four times this hurricane season alone to never let it happen again.

"So this time, state officials hit on an ingenuous solution: allow early voting, so their innate gross incompetence could be diffused over a longer period of time."

Late Late Show with Jim Rome:

"John Kerry took a break from the campaign trail for a totally spontaneous hunting trip, where he just happened to run into some news cameras. Kerry was hunting in the state of Ohio, which his wife, Teresa, rented out for the day."

"Asked how many geese he shot, John Kerry replied, 'I think it's beautiful the Cheneys love their lesbian daughter."'

"'I love hunting, fishing, anything outdoors,' Kerry said as he sprayed on his tan."

"At one point during the hunt, Kerry experienced a flashback to Vietnam, and quickly shot himself in the butt for a Purple Heart."

"A very scary moment when Kerry accidentally unloaded a round into Senator Joe Lieberman, mistaking him for a wild turkey."

Saturday Night Live:

"Today John Kerry and friends walked into a corn field and picked up 4 geese that had been strangled and left for them by Democratic operatives".

Powerful Column by a G.I.'s Dad

All you need to know about this election is contained in a powerful column by Steve Dunleavy in the New York Post - "I Want My G.I. Son to Serve Under Bush". Hard hitting stuff and a must read for the undecideds our there.

More on the Weapons Cache

The New York Kerry Times story on the missing weapons in Iraq is getting curiouser and curiouser. It is now reported on the Drudge Report that CBS was planning to air the story next Sunday night, election eve, in an effort to put the Bush campaign into a crisis mode just two days ahead of the election. The source of the story apparently decided to go to the Times because they could get the story out quicker than CBS. Here's what Drudge has to say:

60 MINS PLANNED BUSH MISSING EXPLOSIVES STORY FOR ELECTION EVE

News of missing explosives in Iraq -- first reported in April 2003 -- was being resurrected for a 60 MINUTES election eve broadcast designed to knock the Bush administration into a crises mode.

Jeff Fager, executive producer of the Sunday edition of 60 MINUTES, said in a statement that "our plan was to run the story on October 31."

Elizabeth Jensen at the LOS ANGELES TIMES details on Tuesday how CBS NEWS and 60 MINUTES lost the story [which repackaged previously reported information on a large cache of explosives missing in Iraq, first published and broadcast in 2003].

The story instead debuted in the NYT. The paper slugged the story about missing explosives from April 2003 as "exclusive."

An NBCNEWS crew embedded with troops moved in to secure the Al-Qaqaa weapons facility on April 10, 2003, one day after the liberation of Iraq.

According to NBCNEWS, the explosives were already missing when the American troops arrived.

It is not clear who exactly shopped an election eve repackaging of the missing explosives story.

The LA TIMES claims: The source on the story first went to 60 MINUTES but also expressed interest in working with the NY TIMES... "The tip was received last Wednesday."

CBSNEWS' plan to unleash the story just 24 hours before election day had one senior Bush official outraged.

"Darn, I wanted to see the forged documents to show how this was somehow covered up," the Bush source, who asked not to be named, mocked, recalling last months CBS airing of fraudulent Bush national guard letters.

Despite the fact that the story has now been thoroughly discredited by NBC and Fox, Kerry is still on the stump today in Wisconsin talking about this story and demanding that the Bush campaign respond. Well, the Bush campaign did respond as you can see above.

I'm beginning to wonder just what's going on. We all expect a flood of negative stories about the administration during this last week, but it almost seems that instead of setting up Bush for a fall, their setting up Kerry. Every time he runs with one of these stories, which is then quickly determined to be false, he looks like an idiot desperate to cling to any hope. Maybe my Clinton theory is at work after all.

All The News That Fits the Kerry Campaign

This morning's New York Times had a breathless expose', big print and over the fold announcing that 380 tons of high explosives had gone missing from an Iraqi ammunition dump. This poorly disguised attempt at an October surprise was immediately picked up by Kerry and the Boy Wonder at their campaign stops today, not to mention most of the mainstream media.

Oops.

Except NBC which proceeded to completely dismantle the story (hat tip Kerry Spot). NBC had a crew embedded with the troops who secured that facility on April 10, 2003 (the day after the Iraqi liberation, and according to NBC News, the explosives were already gone by the time our troops got there.

How will the Times react to this news? My guess is they'll try to ignore it and keep on running the story, or variations on it, through the end of the week. If they had any integrity at all they would immediately run a correction, but I'll be very old before that happens. The Times is totally in the tank for Kerry, and you can expect one negative Bush story after the other until election day.

Kerry Was Where? And Met With Who?

JFK seems to be having some credibility problems again when it comes to various events he's supposedly attended, and various people he's supposedly met with. Here are the latest examples:

1. Kerry claims to have attended the famous 6th game of the 1986 World Series when Bill Buckner kicked a ground ball at first base and the Mets ended up winning the game (the Red Sox were only 1 pitch away from winning the World Series and ended up losing in 7 games). He has spoken of sitting only 30 feet away from Buckner at the time of the play.

However, it apparently isn't true (can you imagine Kerry lying about something??). Football Fans for Truth has all the information about this and other Kerry sports-related whoppers.

2. Kerry has also claimed to have met with the "entire UN Security Council" to discuss the war in Iraq and other issues. Roger L. Simon puts this claim to the test and finds it wanting.

It seems that the only meetings that Kerry doesn't want to talk about are the meetings he had with the Viet Cong in France in the 70's.

Supreme Trouble

Chief Justice William Rehnquist was hospitalized over the weekend for treatment of thyroid cancer. We've known for some time that following this election, there could be 2 or 3 retirements among the supremes. Some are specifically waiting in the hope that Kerry wins and can appoint the successor.

This election is "supremely" important (sorry about that). Our only hope for keeping some degree of sanity on the court is to keep Bush in power to make the appointments, and get rid of Daschle so we can get them approved by the Senate.

Bush Win = Riots??

This just in from the Kerry Spot:

Drudge reports that "C-SPAN cameras captured spouse Elizabeth Edwards making the startling comments to a supporter during a Kerry Campaign Town Hall Meeting in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania." He has the audio, too.

Supporter: Kerry's going to take PA.
Liz Edwards: I know that.

Supporter: I'm just worried there's going to be riots afterwards.

Liz Edwards: Uh.....well...not if we win.

After listening to the audio, it doesn't sound like Edwards is threatening riots if Bush wins. It's just a typical, off-the-cuff, unthinking comment - everything will turn out fine if we win. If the other guy wins, who knows?

But it is a revealing off-the-cuff comment. "Kerry victory = domestic tranquility."

This women needs to come up from the buffet and get a little air once in a while.

Has the Race Begun to Break Towards Bush?

The Kerry Spot has some interesting comments from pollster John Zogby who conducts a daily tracking poll:

Saturday:

Pollster John Zogby: "Bush had a stronger single day of polling, leading Kerry 49% to 46%. For the first time, in the one-day sample Bush had a positive re-elect, 49% to the 48% who feel it's time for someone new. Also in the one-day sample, Undecideds were only 4%. Could Undecideds be breaking for Bush?

Sunday:

Pollster John Zogby: “Another good single day of polling for President Bush. In today’s sample alone, he leads 50% to 43%—the first time we’ve seen either candidate hit 50%. Each candidate continues to tighten his own constituency, and Undecided voters are now at only 4%.

Everyone has been saying that this would be a late-breaking race. Has the race reached the tipping point? Did the Kerry goose hunt and Teresa's stupid Laura Bush comments push folks away from Kerry once and for all? We can hope...

Heinz Kerry a "Disaster" - No Kidding

Saw this on Newsmax.com. Not exactly breaking news.

Heinz Kerry Called Political 'Disaster'

Her remarks early this week criticizing First Lady Laura Bush for never having "a real job" show that Teresa Heinz Kerry is a political "disaster," two of John Kerry's biggest media supporters said Sunday.

"Let me just say the obvious," former New Republic editor Andrew Sullivan told NBC's "Chris Matthews Show." "She is a disaster."

"I vote with Andrew," Newsweek correspondent Howard Fineman quickly added. "Listening to talk radio in Ohio [this week], that's all they were talking about, Teresa Heinz."

The negative assessment came after both Sullivan and Fineman offered predictions that Bush was in trouble in key battleground states. For months Sullivan has openly backed Kerry on his daily blog

While disagreeing that Heinz Kerry was a disaster, NBC's Andrea Mitchell acknowledged that her remarks sounded like "a put-down of little people."

Sad Day in NASCAR

We're very sorry to hear that an airplane belonging to Hendrick Motorsports crashed on approach to the Martinsville airport this morning, shortly before the start of the Nextel Cup Race which was eventually won by a Hendrick driver, Jimmie Johnson. There were 10 fatalities, including Rick Hendrick's son Ricky, his brother John, and John's twin daughters. Also killed was Randy Dorton, engine builder for Hendrick, and a pilot for Tony Stewart who was traveling on the plane.

NASCAR teams spent a tremendous amount of time flying, and over the years, aircraft accidents have claimed a number of lives, including 1992 champion Alan Kulwicki and driver Davey Allison in 1993. Flying is another risk associated with the sport.

Our prayers go out to the Hendrick organization, which owns the cars of Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Brian Vickers, as well as Busch series driver Kyle Busch. You can read more about it on NASCAR.com, and if you'd like to send your condolences, you can do so here.

Kerry's Eurofile Delusions

Mark Steyn as always nails Kerry once again. He seems to know this guy like nobody else. Read about it here.

They've Completely Lost It at the Guardian

We've been chronicling the Guardian in London and some of the crazy things they've tried in order to change our election. Now they have a columnist who thinks Bush should be assassinated. Here's what he says:

On November 2, the entire civilised world will be praying, praying Bush loses. And Sod's law dictates he'll probably win, thereby disproving the existence of God once and for all. The world will endure four more years of idiocy, arrogance and unwarranted bloodshed, with no benevolent deity to watch over and save us. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr - where are you now that we need you?

Can you believe that the editors of that bird cage liner would allow something like that in print? In the U.S., a statement like that would get you some quality time with your local Secret Service agents. What an idiot.

Bad News for Kerry on Monday?

According to the boys at Power Line, there's a major story breaking on Monday that will leave Kerry with some serious questions to answer. Stay tuned.

British Surrender to Americans...Again

Our dental hygiene-challenged friends from across the pond have decided to call off their attempt to influence the Presidential election. Apparently the good folks in Ohio, not to mention others from all around the US, made it clear to the arrogant Brits that we haven't taken direction from England since 1776 and we're not about to start doing it again now. Let's hear it for the colonies!

Election Night(mare) Scenarios

Election Night(mare) Scenario #1

Following the debacle of the 2000 election, the networks were required to make some changes in how they called various races. You’ll remember that the nets called Florida a full hour before the precincts in the panhandle (a very Republican area) closed, and thus suppressed the vote in that area. Without that early call, there’s a good chance that the heavy Bush vote would have greatly widened the margin of victory and eliminated the 36 day ordeal that we all went through.

The nets are now required to wait until all the polls in a given state are closed before calling that state for any particular candidate. But are there any particular requirements for calling the election without giving the results in a particular state?

We all know that the media is in the tank for Kerry and will do whatever it takes to promote a Kerry win. We also know that the nets are getting exit poll info for each state, and although they may not be able to call a state before the polls close in that state, I don’t believe there’s any requirement that they abstain from calling the entire race if the exit polls indicate a winner.

Here’s the scenario: It’s 8pm Eastern time (5 in the West) and the exit polling indicates that although it’s very close in some western states, Kerry just may win. Would a network, like for instance CBS, consider calling the race for Kerry that early in the evening? If they did what would happen?

First of all, the early call would be picked up by every other media outlet, either as a news item, or by making their own call in fear of being left behind. In those states where polls are still open Democrats would be energized to go ahead and vote so they can be part of the winning side, and would Republicans would undoubtedly be discouraged and tempted to stay home. A narrow Bush win in a state like Colorado could suddenly become a Kerry win and in effect, the early call becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Not only could the presidential race be affected, but the control of Congress could also be changed by this tactic.

Given the way the media has carried the water for Kerry in this campaign, I’m not so sure that this couldn’t happen. My guess is that the nets, who are so concerned about being first to call key states and races, might just be thinking about such a move in the event of a close election night.

Now I'm sure most people would think this scenario impossible, that there's no way a network would put its credibility on the line like this. Anyone remember the CBS National Guard story backed up by forged documents that any idiot could see were bad? I think most nets would be happy to risk their credibility if they thought they could put their guy in the White House.

Election Night(mare) Scenario #2

Scenario #2 is a variation on #1 above. We already know that the Kerry camp is planning to declare victory as early as possible in order to give legitimacy to any claims they might have. We also know that both campaigns will have extensive exit polling info as election day wears on, and will begin to get a picture of how the race is going by early evening.

Here’s scenario #2: It’s 8pm Eastern time and the Kerry camp senses that they just might win. Instead of waiting until the wee hours of the morning for a call from the networks, Kerry marches in to his election night ballroom and declares victory. Many Midwestern and Western states still have polls open, and again the early call becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and Dems continue to vote and Republicans stay home.

But what if he’s wrong and the tide turns back toward Bush as the evening wears on. Kerry has now set the table for all the legal challenges which are sure to come by claiming that the Republicans have once again stolen the election. He can claim that only fraud and theft could have turned the numbers around, and the Bush will be keeping his job illegitimately.

During the ensuing legal chaos, Kerry will be claiming the high road and Bush will be on the defensive as the media and their Dem cohorts struggle to find a way to anoint Kerry.

We know that Kerry is only interested in one thing – winning the election, and I’m confident he and his cronies will do everything legal or illegal to make that happen.

Kerry Hunts Goose; Edwards Hunts Mousse

Yesterday John Kerry went a' huntin' near Youngstown, OH - a town with a Democrat mayor who recently endorsed President Bush. Kerry dressed up in borrowed camo gear and with his trusty 12 guage marched off into a corn field with the hunting party. Dick Cheney had the best line, calling Kerry's outfit an "October Disguise".

The actual hunt was off camera, but shots were heard and geese fell. When the party returned, Kerry told the reporters that all four hunters had bagged a bird. The other three guys were carrying their kills, but not Kerry. If, in fact, he shot a bird, he had someone else carry it. Could you imagine the outrage on the part of the Democrat tree-hugger crowd if Kerry was photographed carrying a dead goose?

Kerry is making a bald-faced attempt to become something that he isn't - a gun loving conservative. He's not fooling anyone, and this silly photo op comes very close to the Mike Dukakis "tank" photo from 1988.

I have but one question for the good Senator. Mr. Kerry, how can you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for a publicity stunt?

Meanwhile, the Breck Girl continued his search for the perfect mousse.

Parade of Fools

Let's look at a couple of items from yesterday's news:

1. John Kerry is critical of Dick Cheney because Cheney got a flu shot. Where do I start? Let's just remove from the initial discussion the fact that Cheney is the Vice President of the United States. Cheney is 63 years old and a heart patient with a history of several heart attacks. That information alone would qualify him as a member of the high risk group that should get a flu shot, which on it's own makes Kerry's complaint ridiculous.

Now when you add back in the fact that Cheney is second in line to the presidency, wouldn't it be better for our leaders to be able to continue to function rather than be bedridden with a life-threatening flu?

By the way, Bill Clinton got a flu shot. Will Kerry criticize Clinton when he gets up off his sick-bed and campaigns for Kerry next week? Not likely.

2. Theresa Heinz Kerry doubts that Laura Bush has ever held a real job. This lady is a walking case of foot-in-mouth disease. Everyone, with the apparent exception of Kerry, knows that Laura Bush was a teacher and librarian, not to mention the mother of two and the First Lady of both Texas and the USA. I think we can find a job in there somewhere.

THK has now put additional doubts in folks minds regarding her fitness to be First Lady. Granted, we don't vote for First Lady, but I'm sure some folks will vote against her husband because they don't want to listen to this harpy for the next four or eight years.

ABC = Objectivity? NOT!

Peter Jennings, who never let objectivity get in the way of his liberal views, had this to say in an interview in Kansas City:

"I'm a little concerned about this notion everybody wants us to be objective," Jennings said.

Jennings said that everyone -- even journalists -- have points of view through which they filter their perception of the news. It could be race, sex or income. But, he said, reporters are ideally trained to be as objective as possible.

"And when we don't think we can be fully objective, to be fair," the anchorman said.

Does the public think network news is fair? There are a number of opinion polls that show news consumers feel that the media does have a slant.

Jennings maintains those polls may be driven by groups with an agenda.

Is anyone surprised? I'm not.

Kerry to Declare Victory Early

Apparently the Kerry camp has decided not to worry about those nasty little elections, and just go ahead and declare victory early in an attempt to make Bush's reelection seem illigitimate. Here are the details courtesy of the Kerry Spot:

Sen. John Kerry has a simple strategy if the presidential race is in doubt on Nov. 3, the day after the election: Do not repeat Al Gore's mistakes.

Unlike the former vice president, who lost a recount fight and the 2000 election, Kerry will be quick to declare victory on election night and begin defending it. He also will be prepared to name a national security team before knowing whether he's secured the presidency…

Gore prematurely conceded the 2000 race to George W. Bush, then had to retract his concession after aides said Florida wasn't lost. He never declared victory, an omission Kerry's advisers - many of whom worked for Gore - now believe created a sense of inevitability in voters' minds about Bush's presidency.

Gore didn't plan for the legal showdown, though few could have predicted it before Election Day. And he watched as Bush seized political advantage during the 36-day recount by publicly discussing a transition to the White House.

Not this time, promise Kerry's advisers. If there is doubt about the results, they will fight without delay.

While the lawyers litigate, political operatives will try to shape public perception. Their goal would be to persuade voters that Kerry has the best claim to the presidency and that Republicans are trying to steal it.

Democrats are already laying the public relations groundwork by pointing to every possible voting irregularity before the Nov. 2 election and accusing Republicans of wrongdoing.

On Election Day, Whouley will head the so-called "boiler room," probably in Washington, that tracks vote counts and ensures Kerry doesn't concede too soon. Whouley was the aide who, after noticing Florida was too close to call in 2000, called Gore's team in Tennessee and told them to put the brakes on the concession speech.


Notice nowhere in this story is there any suggestion that Kerry's plan would be affected by actual election results.

Of course, let's observe that the Democrats' sue-our-way-into-the-White-House strategy needs a couple of events to occur in order to win.

They need:

A) The electoral college total to be close.
B) They need at least one state that could alter the electoral college total to be close.
C) They need that state to have a plausible Election Day controversy.
D) They need that Election Day controversy to disallow a large pile of disputed ballots.
E) They need a legal case to argue that those disputed ballots to be allowed.
F) They need those disputed ballots to be enough to put Kerry over the top.

Not even Al Gore got F.

But it all starts with point A. If Team Bush can boost turnout so that Bush wins by several states' worth of electoral votes, the Kerry legal effort for five simultaneous recounts could look pretty silly. I think the Democrats overestimate public patience for another Florida controversy.

A Powerful New Ad

The Progress for America Voter Fund is making a huge buy for a powerful new ad. You can view the ad here.

I remember reading about this story awhile back, and it really goes to the heart of President Bush. While it is designed to tug at emotional strings rather than pure political logic, it's going to have an effect - especially on those who are more emotionally driven. Security moms will love it.

Breck Girl and the French Senator

John Edwards has been dubbed the "Breck Girl" by Rush Limbaugh, and as evidenced by this video, is living up to the name. My teenage daughter doesn't spend this much time on her hair.

In other campaign news, John Kerry was heard speaking French during a campaign stop in Florida yesterday. What is he thinking? Does he have some personality quirk that makes him want to look silly and lose the election?

NASCAR Enters the Pres Fight

Here's another reason I enjoy NASCAR (hat tip Kerry Spot):

Bush-Cheney '04 is announcing a NASCAR tour that will cover 14 events in four states (Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) on October 19 and 20. The tour features seven of NASCAR's best drivers and most well-known figures: Darrell Waltrip, Mark Martin, Bill Elliott, Jack Roush, Benny Parsons, Jeff Hammond and Eddie Wood. NASCAR fans represent a pivotal voting block in this election, and these NASCAR celebrities' enthusiastic support for President Bush will have a real impact in driving voters to the polls. See below for a schedule of these historic events.

President Bush's Support Within The NASCAR Community Runs Deep

Nine Of The Nextel Cup Series Top 10 Drivers Have Endorsed The President. Drivers include: Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Elliott Sadler, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson and Jeremy Mayfield (my comment - what, no Jeff Gordon!).

NASCAR President Mike Helton Has Endorsed The President.

The Most Successful Owners Have Endorsed The President. They include Jack Roush, Teresa Earnhardt, Richard Childress, Robert Yates, and J.D. and Joe Gibbs.

Countless NASCAR Heroes Have Endorsed The President. They include: Geoffrey Bodine, Brendan Gaughan, Jeff Green, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Bobby Labonte, Terry Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Joe Nemechek, Kyle Petty, Ken Schrader, Brian Vickers, Rusty Wallace and Michael Waltrip.

Don't discount the effect these endorsements could have on the campaign. NASCAR is the biggest spectator sport in the country, with the top division (NEXTEL CUP) routinely drawing sold-out crowds in excess of 100,000.

The NEXTEL Cup also races in a number of swing states, including two races each in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, 3 races in Florida, and 3 races in California (which is where I live and will undoubtedly go to Kerry). They also run in Illinois, New York, and a bunch of Red states.

NASCAR fans are some of the most loyal sports fans in the country. They love their drivers and teams, and buy the products endorsed by those teams. That's why a company like UPS or Lowes have to spend $15-$18 million per year to put their name on a car. Just go to any mall and start counting the NASCAR logo merchandise on sale or being worn by the shoppers (I'm wearing a Dale Earnhardt Jr. T-shirt as I write this).

I think this is a great move for Bush and for NASCAR, and it could make a difference, especially in Michigan where Jack Rousch, one of the most successful car owners in NASCAR, is a very well known businessman.

This Ought to Be Fun

Here's a new ad coming out from the Club for Growth, a pro-Bush 527 group. It's produced by the same guy who did the movie "Airplane", a hilarious sendup on airline disaster movies (hat tip Opinion Journal):

Leslie Nielsen Would Make an Excellent 'John Kerry'

David Zucker has been a successful Hollywood producer for years, churning out popular comedy hits like the "Airplane" series and "Scary Movie." But now he has decided to enter the political arena with an ad lampooning John Kerry. Mr. Zucker still has many liberal sensibilities but says 9/11 convinced him President Bush's strong leadership is essential in the war on terror.

His ad is called "Indecision" and highlights how dangerous that quality can be in a president. A groom at a wedding is seen kissing a bridesmaid instead of a bride. "If you never commit to what you believe in, who will ever believe you?" the ad asks. The groom then drops the bridesmaid and kisses an old lady who is playing the organ. "John Kerry has changed his mind time and time again," the announcer says. "If you thought you could trust John Kerry, you may want to change your mind, too."

The Clubforgrowth.net, a new 527 group that aims to inject humor into the dreary world of political TV ads, says the ad will run nationwide on cable TV stations as well as on network affiliates in the swing states of Ohio and Wisconsin. Club for Growth President Steve Moore jokes that he wouldn't be surprised if Senator Kerry's campaign hasn't decided yet on whether or not to respond to the ad.

I'm Not Alone

Apparently my views (see Why Bush? below) regarding Kerry's ever changing shifts in policies is shared by a prominent swing state Democrat (hat tip Opinion Journal):

"I'm the Democratic mayor of Youngstown, a city that traditionally gives 60 to 75 percent of its vote to the Democratic presidential candidate. Growing up with the legacies of FDR, Harry Truman, and JFK formed my core Democratic values. They had the courage of their convictions, their word was their bond, and the entire world knew it... Senator Kerry reminds me of the politician who when asked his position on the war in Iraq stands tall and responds loudly: 'One-half of my friends support the war in Iraq and one-half of my friends oppose the war in Iraq. And I'm not afraid to say that I support my friends'" -- Mayor George M. McKelvey, of Youngstown, Ohio, writing in the Boston Globe on why he is endorsing President Bush.

Why Bush?

Welcome Hugh Hewitt readers!

I think there's a fundamental at work in this presidential election that best explains why I (or anyone else) should vote to reelect the president. If there's one thing I want to see in a president, it's consistency and doing what he says he will do. Can you think of any instance where President Bush has failed to do what he said he would do? I can't, and that gives me great confidence that his words will be followed up with appropriate actions. I may not always agree with what he wants to do, but I don't have to wonder what's going to happen.

Sen. Kerry has no such convictions. He will say whatever needs to be said that day to accomplish that day's goals. If the goals change, then the words and subsequent actions will change. This makes for a very unpredictable leader and one who does not merit my trust.

Simply put, Bush will walk the talk. Kerry, like his windsurfer, will head in whatever direction the wind blows.

Visualize Whirled Peas

The title comes from one of my favorite bumper stickers. In case you didn't know it, there's a growing movement to "apologize" for America. It involves taking ridiculous photos of yourselves holding a written apology. Tim Blair, the pundit from down under, has a collection of these shots with his own hilarious captions. Be careful - don't be drinking anything when you open this link or your sure to douse your keyboard.

I Have A Dream...

(cue dream sequence spooky music) It’s early in the morning hours of November 3rd, 2004. In a somber ballroom in Boston, the stunned crowd watches as their candidate steps to the microphone to begin his concession speech.

“They don’t like me! They REAAALLLY don’t like me!”, moans the French-looking candidate in his haughtiest voice.

It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. Surely it was written in the stars that the people of America would rise up as one and anoint the Great Debater and The Boy Wonder as our new leaders. But alas, there will be no joy in Beantown for mighty Kerry has struck out.

Stunned news anchors intone the details of the increasing tide of votes sweeping the Democrats aside. Tom Daschle plans his new career as a lobbyist following his failure to persuade enough dead Indians to vote for him.

Across swing states hordes of lawyers are packing their bags and heading home. No recount this time. A 7 point Bush victory and a 313-225 electoral vote total taken care of that. Frantic TV reporters are searching for someone… anyone, who can attest to voter intimidation or heavy handed Republican tactics. Where are the disenfranchised black voters? Where are the hanging chads? Where are the bewildered old folks who voted for someone else by mistake?

There’s puzzlement on the faces of the party faithful. With a mournful cry they proclaim “Our guy won all the debates! Our guy had a better plan! Our guy is SMARTER! OUR GUY’S NOT BUSH!”

Oh, but the huddled masses in flyover country had a different idea. Your guy may be a better debater, but we LIKE the other guy better, and in today’s retail politics, like-ability beats debate-ability every time.

And in other ballroom in Washington, D.C., the winner faces his wildly enthusiastic crowd. Following the usual thank you's he turns to the camera, and in that unmistakable Texas twang, sends a message to the opposition who have spent 4 years trying to destroy him.

“Friends, to all of you who have worked so hard and given so much in this futile effort to mess me up, may I humbly suggest that it’s time for you to MOVE ON.”

Ah, sweet slumber…

The Dead Trees Are Talking

The dead tree media (newspapers) are starting to make their presidential endorsements, and there have been a couple of surprises. You'd almost expect the dead tree media to go overwhelmingly for Kerry since he so much resembles one, but both the Chicago Tribune and the San Diego Union-Tribune have gone for Bush. Neither paper has shown anything but liberal tendancies, but this news is encouraging. Here's an excerpt from the Chicago endorsement:

A President Kerry certainly would punish those who want us dead. As he pledged, with cautiously calibrated words, in accepting his party's nomination: "Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response." Bush, by contrast, insists on taking the fight to terrorists, depriving them of oxygen by encouraging free and democratic governments in tough neighborhoods. As he stated in his National Security Strategy in 2002: "The United States can no longer solely rely on a reactive posture as we have in the past. ... We cannot let our enemies strike first."

Bush's sense of a president's duty to defend America is wider in scope than Kerry's, more ambitious in its tactics, more prone, frankly, to yield both casualties and lasting results. This is the stark difference on which American voters should choose a president.

There is much the current president could have done differently over the last four years. There are lessons he needs to have learned. And there are reasons--apart from the global perils likely to dominate the next presidency--to recommend either of these two good candidates.

But for his resoluteness on the defining challenge of our age--a resoluteness John Kerry has not been able to demonstrate--the Chicago Tribune urges the re-election of George W. Bush as president of the United States.

Operation Clark County

The Guardian, your basic British fish-wrapper disguised as a newspaper, has embarked on a campaign to influence our presidential election. They are encouraging their readers to pick the name of a Clark County, OH voter (avaiable on their website) and send them a letter encouraging them to vote for Kerry. Apparently Clark County has some significance in Ohio elections.

Tim Blair who runs a blog out of Australia has suggested Operation Guardian in which we Americans can tell the Brits just what we think of their meddling in our election. If you click here, you can send your own email to the staff at the Guardian. Have fun!

Gay Baiting

If you've been reading this blog awhile, you'll know that I'm no big fan of the Gay Lobby (see the post below "Having A Gay Old Time"). However, in the last two debates Edwards and Kerry decided to declare war on Dick Cheney's daughter, Mary, who is gay.

Both Edwards and Kerry brought her up by name in their debates in what was obviously an attempt to smear the Bush/Cheney ticket in the eyes of conservative religious voters who have Bible-based concerns about homosexuality. You'll notice that when Kerry referred to her, he did not use the word "gay", but used the work "lesbian" (the question referred to gay marriage). Why? Undoubtedly "lesbian" got a much more negative reaction from the focus group they used than "gay".

It was, in the words of Lynne Cheney, a "cheap, tawdry political stunt".

It was also a big mistake. Ask any mom how she would react if her child was attacked in such a manner, and you'll find out why you should never find yourself between a mother and her cubs. Moms (and Dads) were outraged by this Dem tactic, and it's starting to show up in the polls. Bush has gained 5 points in Zogby since Friday night, and I think you can assign some of that increase to Kerry's underhanded remark.

Kerry and the mainstream media are now desperately trying to spin the comment into a compliment, but it won't work. Ask yourself how you felt when you heard it, and take comfort that your revulsion at the tactic was not alone. Kerry will pay a price for attacking a candidate's child.

Of course, had a Republican tried a stunt like this, the media would have run him out of the country, and every gay organization in the world would be camped out on his doorstep. This won't happen with Kerry - after all, he can make the lame walk (according to Edwards). Maybe he can cure homosexuality while he's at it.

More Draft Nonsense

Kerry is still out on the campaign trail talking up the idea of a draft. He apparantly heard that Zogby is showing Bush with increasing strength in the 18-29 demographic. Here's the story (hat tip Kerry Spot):

Kerry: Potential great for return of draft
There is "a great potential" for a military draft in the United States should President Bush win re-election in November, Democratic challenger John Kerry said Thursday during an interview with The Des Moines Register.

"With George Bush, the plan for Iraq is more of the same and the great potential of a draft," Kerry said during a meeting with Register reporters and editors before headlining a rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds.

Bush campaign aides dismissed Kerry's comments as "irresponsible" and "the mother of all cheap political scare tactics."

Kerry and Bush have both said repeatedly that neither would reinstate the draft. Bush pledged during the debates to maintain the "all-volunteer army."

Kerry has said a draft is "possible" under Bush and has characterized the heavy use of National Guard and Reserve troops as a "backdoor draft."

Kerry's comments Thursday went further.

"With George Bush, the plan for Iraq is more of the same and the great potential of the draft. Because if we go it alone, I don't know how you do it with the current overextension" of the military, Kerry said.

The comments came as a broad countercharge to Bush's accusation that Kerry's criticism of the war has made it more difficult to win allied support in Iraq.

Bush campaign Iowa spokesman Dan Ronayne responded: "Senator Kerry's comment is irresponsible, patent nonsense and the mother of all cheap political scare tactics. He knows better, and that statement is just another example of John Kerry's willingness to say absolutely anything he thinks will benefit his political fortunes, and as a result he is losing credibility with the American people."

Rise Up and Walk

Apparently John Edwards has a much higher estimation of John Kerry's talents than any rational person could have. Edwards promises us that if Kerry is elected, those in wheelchairs will rise up and walk. Now THAT'S a campaign promise.

Of course, this all has to do with embryonic stem cell research, research that has not shown the promise the Edwards and Kerry seem to think it has. This is nothing more than a bald-faced attempt to take advantage of people who have suffered way too much in their everyday lives.

Now that Christopher Reeve has died, the poster boy for this type of research, suddenly it's all about him. Kerry even claims to have received a cell phone message from Reeve within hours of his death encouraging him to press on. It's getting deep in here.

There once was a man who could make the lame walk and the blind see. His name also started with a "J", but I think that's where the similarities end.

How Low Can They Go

Can you believe this...

Tennessee Democrats Compare Republicans To Special Olympics Children

Democrats in a race for a state House seat in District 82, are circulating a flyer that shows a retarded child with President Bush’s face running in a track race. The headline says: “Voting for Bush Is Like Running In The Special Olympics: Even If You Win, You’re Still Retarded.”

Click here to view the flyer. The flyer is being distributed by Democrat Craig Fitzhugh. His opponent, Dave Dahl has issued a call to Fitzhugh to stop distributing the flyer.

According to Dahl, “Hard-ball politics is one thing and everyone expects tough battles, but using those who are born with mental disabilities for political fodder is disgusting.”

Dahl says the flyers have been distributed for at least two weeks from Fitzhugh’s campaign office in Ripley, Tennessee. It also serves as the Kerry-Edwards headquarters. “At first, I really did not believe that Fitzhugh and the Democrats would stoop to such gutter politics, but then people started bringing the flyer to me at the end of last week. I was shocked and disgusted.”

“This kind of reckless disregard for those who suffer from mental disabilities is much larger than any state representative race. This act is so atrocious and indecent that my campaign will be sending a copy of the Fitzhugh flyer to the United States Special Olympics Committee, the Special Olympics International Group and state and national advocacy groups who work with and support special needs children and adults.”

This most recent attack on Republicans as mentally handicapped is not new. On October 28, 1994, while in Virginia, then-Vice President Al Gore attacked Oliver North's Senate bid supporters as "the extreme right wing, the extra chromosome right wing." Advocates for those with Down's Syndrome, caused by an extra chromosome, were outraged.

Tommy Gun

Retired General Tommy Franks is no fan of John Kerry. Take a look at what he said yesterday in a rally in Reno, NV (hat tip Little Green Footballs).

“If his voting record ruled the day, Saddam Hussein would not only be running Iraq but Kuwait,” Franks told about 200 people Sunday at a Reno rally.

“The choice is very, very clear. We need decisive, strong, no-backing-down and no-equivocating leadership,” he said.

Franks praised the Democratic challenger’s military service during the Vietnam War, but said Kerry’s later anti-war activities upset him.

“The men I served with in Vietnam weren’t war criminals and I’m proud I served with them,” Franks said. ...

“I know a commander in chief when I see one and there’s only one on the ballot,” Franks said. “After September 11th, we were blessed to have a commander in chief who said enough is enough. There are two options: to fight them (terrorists) over there or to fight them over here. I’m an over-there-kind-of-guy,” he said.

In an interview before the rally, Franks said he doesn’t foresee an endless cycle of violence in Iraq, and he thinks violence will diminish after the Nov. 2 election.

“I believe they (insurgents) are influenced by what they see in our media,” he told The Associated Press. “They see if they blow something up it’s front-page news ... (and) the presidential candidates will talk about it.

“After Nov. 2, that dynamic will leave. The problem won’t go away, but it’ll be diminished ... This will be a long process, but there will come a time when the insurgents have less opportunity to create mischief for us,” he said.

Not Necessarily

Boy, I'd give a lot of money to be able to write like Mark Steyn. Once again he hits Kerry's fundamental problem right on the head and explains why Bush is once again surging in the polls and will win in November:

"And, if you want to know the real difference, after 90 minutes of debate it came in the final exchange of the night: 'The truth of that matter,' said Bush, 'is, if you listen carefully, Saddam would still be in power if he [Kerry] were the President of the United States.'

Kerry replied: 'Not necessarily.'

That's John Kerry: the 'not necessarily' candidate. Saddam might not necessarily be in power. He might have been hit by the Number 37 bus while crossing the street at the intersection of Saddam Hussein Boulevard and Saddam Hussein Parkway in downtown Tikrit. He might have put his back out with one of his more vigorous concubines and been forced to hand over to Uday or Qusay. He might have stiffed Chirac in some backdoor deal and been taken out by some anthrax-laced Quality Street planted by an elite French commando unit.

But, on the other hand, not necessarily. That's the difference: Bush believes America needs to shape events in the world; Kerry doesn't and, even if he did, because he doesn't know how he'd want to shape them the events would end up shaping him. There would be lots of discussion. Frenchmen would be involved. And, in the end, President Kerry could claim that however things turned out was what he wanted all along because, on Saddam and Iran and North Korea and a whole lot more, who the hell can say with confidence what Kerry wants anyway? How it would all turn out is anybody's guess. And on November 2 America won't be in a mood to vote for a guess."

John The Pacifist

I've been looking at the past 35 years of Kerry's record (something which the media is loathe to do), and have come to a conclusion that I haven't read anywhere else. John Kerry is a pacifist.

Many people would immediately dispute this since after all, Kerry served in the military. I don't know where he stood went he entered the Navy, but without question he came out of the service a pacifist. His actions following the war were as anti-military as you can get. He joined up with every wacko leftist out there in that day, and even took to calling his fellow servicemen "war criminals".

During his 20 undistinguished years in the Senate, he has voted against virtually every major weapons system that we have used to fight the war on terror, and even introduced a bill to gut our intelligence capabilities just one year after the first World Trade Center attack. These are not the hallmarks of a man who believes in defending his country.

I can think of nothing more disastrous for the country than to have pacifist as president. Our country would be at the mercy of every kook with a weapon.

While I have great respect for those people who are pacifists due to religious conviction (I don't believe that's Kerry's situation), I could not support one for commander in chief.

Kerry Loses Election

No, not that election. A largely underreported fact is that John Kerry's sister has spent much of the past few months in Australia trying to make the case the Prime Minister John Howard is some kind of puppet of the U.S. and that the people of Australia are in more danger because he has chosen to side with Bush.

Another largely ignored fact is that Australia is the only country in the world that has sided with the U.S. in every military conflict for the last 100 years. They're good folks down there.

The people of Australia spoke today, and John Howard won reelection. Chalk this up as the first of two Kerry defeats in national elections.

More Thoughts on the Draft

The Dems are still promoting the internet canard that Bush has plans to reinstate the draft. It's nonsense, of course, and the other day a Democratic sponsored bill in the House to bring back the draft was brought up for a vote and defeated 402-2 (the 2 Ayes were both Dems).

Should we fear a renewed draft from Bush? No. Enlistments, reenlistments and retirements are all running at expected levels and there are no unmanageable manpower problems.

However, the press is missing the real draft story. What will happen to the military if Kerry is elected? My personal feeling is that no intelligent, self-respecting man or woman will want to serve in a military with Kerry as commander-in-chief. This is a man who came back from Vietnam and promptly aligned himself with every left-wing anti-war wacko out there on the demonstration tour. He also branded his "brothers-in-arms" as war criminals.

Enlistments and reenlistments will plummet, and retirements will accelerate. Manpower needs will become critical and the only way Kerry will be able to hold the military together is to deny retirements and other separations, activate more and more reserve units, and reinstate a draft to replace the recruits that won't be coming into the recruiting centers.

There may well be a draft coming, but it won't be President Bush that causes it to be necessary.

Latest Report on WMD's in Iraq

The press is having a field day with this report as they basically try to claim that "BUSH LIED!!". I think Mickey Kaus has it right when he describes what really was going on in Iraq:

If a man says he has a gun, acts like he has a gun, and convinces everyone around him he has a gun, and starts waving it around and behaving recklessly, the police are justified in shooting him (even if it turns out later he just had a black bar of soap).

Similarly, according to the Duelfer report, Saddam seems to have intentionally convinced other countries, and his own generals, that he had WMDs. He also convinced much of the U.S. government. If we reacted accordingly and he turns out not to have had WMDs, whose fault is that? Why doesn't Bush make that argument--talking about Saddam's actions in the years before the U.S. invasion instead of Saddam's "intent" to have WMDs at some point in the future? (It wouldn't necessarily make the Iraq war prudent, but it would make Americans feel more comfortable about it than what Bush has been telling them.)

Ace in the Hole

Tonight is the second presidential debate, this time in St. Louis and in a town hall meeting format. Since we don't now how the participants are chosen or what their real political leanings are (they're supposedly all uncommitted voters), there's no telling what kind of wacky questions they will come up with. Bush is usually pretty good in these situations, so there's hope that he'll do better than last time.

The polls show the race tightening up, but I still think there's an ace in the hole for the Bush team - Bill & Hilary Clinton. There's no way that Bill & Hill can allow Kerry to win the presidency. Why? The Clintons are loyal only to themselves, and not to the Dems. If Kerry wins he becomes the incumbent in 2008 which will prevent Hilary from running. Hilary cannot afford to wait until 2012. She'll be too old and by then other, younger stars of the Dem party will have come to the forefront.

My theory is that Clinton has a bunch of his old cronies working for Kerry for one reason - to be ready to mess up the Kerry campaign if necessary. We've already seen the Sandy Berger document scandal take the wind out of Kerry's sails, and new Kerry spokesmen Joe Lockhart (former Clinton press secretary) has made one embarrassing gaffe after another. Should the race remain tight, I expect to see a series of Kerry embarrassments coming out in the 10 days or so before the election. Hilary has too much to lose should Kerry win.