Gut Feeling Prediction on Miers' Nomination

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and give you my prediction on the Miers' nomination right now. Based on what I'm seeing out in both the conservative and liberal media, Miers will not be the next Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. She will either withdraw (voluntarily or be asked to be the president), or will be rejected by the Senate.

This will leave President Bush in a much weakened position when it comes to the next nominee, and that's too bad. He could have nominated a strong, well-known conservative, and although there would have been a fight, he probably would have won. His base would have rallied around him and the candidate, and much good would have been done for the conservative cause. If anything, he would have forced the left to show itself for what it is and make them demonstrate why strong conservatives cannot serve on the nation's highest court. They would have failed, and would have looked silly in the process.

If Miers goes by the boards, I would expect the president to dig deeper in the "diversity" well and probably come out with another woman who's also a minority, or perhaps a male Hispanic to try and appease that end of the spectrum. No matter who it is or what they look like, if Bush doesn't put up a candidate with strong conservative credentials, the base is going to revolt, and that will not bode well for '06.

President Bush ran and was elected on a platform of appointing strict constructionists to the bench. All the base wants is someone who can be easily identified as such, and not someone whose judicial philosophy we have to guess. The conservatives want the fight that Bush tried to avoid with the Miers nomination.

One other thing - the votes of Republican senators is not assured. The guys that are looking to run in '08 (such as Brownback, Allen, Frist, etc) need to appeal to the conservative base in order to win the primaries. The angry part of the base might be a little more favorable to them if they stand up to the President on this nomination. Also, I think some senators may see this as an opportunity to payback some grievances against the White House, real or perceived. Trent Lott is already expressing reservations (he wasn't too excited when the White House backed Frist over him when he was drummed out of leadership thanks to the Strom Thurmond comments). And Charles Grassley is barking at anyone who will listen because he's mad that Bush won't back his Medicare change which is supposed to aid hurricane victims. I think some of these guys might just use Miers to get even.

If Miers sails on to an easy confirmation, be sure to point back to this post and say Nyah, Nyah, Nyah. It's okay - I can take it.

UPDATE October 27, 2005: Miers Withdraws - my crystal ball must have been working.


Technorati tags: Harriet Miers; Miers; SCOTUS