A leaked Democratic poll has suggested that Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner in the race for the party's presidential nomination, could lose the 2008 election because of her "very polarised image".This is another in a line of stories with the same theme: Hillary at the top of the ticket creates problems for down ballot Dems.
The survey by the Democratic pollsters Lake Research indicated that both Mrs Clinton and Barack Obama, second in the Democratic race, trailed Rudy Giuliani, the Republican front runner, in 31 swing congressional districts.
Former President Bill Clinton whispers to his wife Senator Hillary Clinton
The private memo, leaked to The Washington Post, painted what researchers described as a "sobering picture" for Democrats who believe that President George W Bush's disastrous favourability numbers almost guarantee they will capture the White House next year.
All party preference polls show that Democrats are much more popular than Republicans. But when the names of individual candidates are used, the gap narrows considerably.
"The images of the two early [Democratic] favourites are part of the problem," the memo said.
The leaked poll found that Mr Giuliani, a centrist Republican with liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gay rights, leads Mrs Clinton by 49 per cent to 39 per cent in the swing districts.
The Republicans have their own view of the poll:
Frank Luntz, a leading Republican pollster, said: "This poll reveals what grassroots Democrats have been concerned about. Hillary is their choice ideologically but not necessarily politically and they're afraid she could lose.
"Democrats want to win more than anything else and they will compromise on policy to achieve electability." Mrs Clinton, he said, prompted a series of perceptions that could damage her.
"She never admits she's wrong. There's a lack of candour and a harshness to her. She doesn't have any of the typical challenges of a female candidate but that is in itself a challenge.
"She doesn't show heart. People see her as strong and a fighter, someone who is qualified and can get things done but she's missing that personal element, that emotional connection.
"Rudy does better among independents than Hillary does and in the end the candidate that gets the majority of independents wins the election."
The fact that no comparisons were made to other Republicans tells me that the Dems are planning on Rudy being the nominee, and they may be right. In terms of ultimate electibility, Rudy is still probably the strongest Republican, though some conservatives will be uncomfortable with him. They may, however, be a lot more uncomfortable with Hillary and will hold their noses and vote for Rudy anyway.
I've said before that Rudy doesn't bother me and if he's the nominee, I'll support him without reservation.
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