Fred the Invisible

I think it's pretty obvious now that Fred Thompson's campaign peaked before he entered the race and has been on a downhill slide ever since. Fred will not be the nominee. The New York Observer agrees:

Back when he was still a member of the Law and Order cast, the promise of Fred Thompson as a presidential campaign seemed breathtaking in its scope: A confident and telegenic communicator who would jolt the moribund Republican base to life, dethrone Rudy Giuliani as the front-runner, marginalize Mitt Romney, knock John McCain out of the race, and then—as the nominee—charm the independents who have been jumping the G.O.P. ship back on board.

But the reality is more like this: A tired man half-heartedly pedaling a generic message, his fatigue practically contagious.

The notion that Mr. Thompson would overwhelm his G.O.P. foes and power his way to the nomination has long since been dismissed. No one now thinks he’ll win Iowa, or even factor in New Hampshire, for that matter. Now, the talk is that he’ll make a stand in South Carolina, which will somehow catapult him toward a dominant performance in the February 5 mega-primary.

But it’s tough to see him meeting even those radically lowered expectations. The problem is that the smart guys (and gals—like Mary Matalin) who coaxed Mr. Thompson into the race badly misread the reasons for the G.O.P. base’s depressed state. The Thompson crowd chalked it up to bloodless litmus test politics. Messrs. Giuliani, McCain and Romney, the thinking went, all had glaring shortcomings on issues like gun control, abortion, gay rights, and immigration and were thus being tuned out by conservative voters. So toss Mr. Thompson in, have him emphasize every topic on every conservative group’s check list, and the rest would fall into place.

It hasn’t even come close to working. And it’s only getting worse.

Consider the latest national poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, which has Mr. Giuliani safely ahead of the pack at 33 percent, followed distantly by Mr. McCain at 16 percent. Mr. Thompson runs behind him, at 15 percent—which is not good sign considering that he was at 23 percent last month and 26 percent two months ago.

Many friends of mine who were quite eager to support Fred's campaign have since departed for other candidates. Although I had high hopes for him, he won't win anywhere and I expect him to be out of the race as soon as the results are announced in South Carolina. He waited too long to get in, and when in acted like he didn't want the job. You can't win that way.