Huckabee Fails to Expand His Base

Although Mike Huckabee has attempted to blame his failure to win South Carolina on Fred Thompson, the real blame can be placed on his inability to develop support outside the evangelical community. John Fund reports:

Mike Huckabee tried his best to expand beyond his evangelical base in South Carolina and appeal to what his campaign called “Joe Six Pack” voters. Mr. Huckabee was the only candidate to pander to devotees of the Confederate flag, telling crowds that outsiders should leave the banner flag, now displayed in a corner of the grounds of the state capitol, alone: “If somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we’d tell ‘em what to do with the pole, that’s what we’d do.” Contrast that with the comments of Mr. Huckabee’s fellow Southerner Fred Thompson: “For a great many Americans, [the flag] is a symbol of racism. I’m glad people have made a decision not to display it . . . in a state capitol.”

Mr. Huckabee also tried pandering to immigration foes. As governor he had opposed measures targeting illegal aliens. Just before the primary, he signed a pledge that he would use law enforcement to send all 12 million illegal aliens home. He vehemently denied any inconsistency in his views. It didn’t work. Among the one-fourth of voters for whom illegal immigration was a top issue, Mr. Huckabee defeated John McCain by only 33% to 24%—a sign that many voters recognize the issue’s complexities and view it in context once they get inside the voting booth.

Once again, Mr. Huckabee failed to achieve significant support outside his evangelical base. Only 1 in 7 non-evangelicals voted for him, placing him behind not just Mr. McCain but Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. He finished a close second overall only because he won more than 2 out of 5 evangelical voters, who made up 60% of South Carolina’s primary turnout. And he pandered to his base, too, running TV ads proclaiming himself a “Christian leader.” The vote among voters who considered themselves evangelicals and those who said TV ads were “very important” in determining how they voted was the same: Mr. Huckabee defeated John McCain 43% to 28% in both categories.

This repeats a pattern seen in other states. In Iowa, where evangelicals also were 60% of the electorate, Mr. Huckabee won but carried the votes of only 13% of non-evangelicals. In three states with more secular Republican electorates—New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada—he has won between 4% and 8% of non-evangelicals, trailing even fringe candidate Ron Paul.

The GOP needed a candidate who can appeal to Republicans and conservatives in general while still attracting evangelicals. I'm not sure there's one left in the race who can do that.

Jonathan Martin at The Politico suggests that Huckabee has taken on a new role - McCain-Lover and Mitt-Killer. Read it here.