The State of Play for the GOP

David Freddoso looks at what's likely to happen in the next couple of weeks and how that affects the GOP campaign:

With the Iowa and New Hampshire contests out of the way, the race for the Republican nomination remains as unclear as it ever was. Senator John McCain now has the most obvious path to a clean-cut momentum victory, but this race could instead become a delegate hunt that drags on for another month without resolution.

Consider:

• Even a win in Michigan next Tuesday cannot guarantee McCain anything further. He will probably do poorly in Nevada next Saturday and South Carolina will at least be a challenge.
• Although it appears unlikely, no one can yet rule out a Florida resurrection by Rudy Giuliani.
• Mike Huckabee could win Michigan and South Carolina, and then dominate the South on February 5, but is likely to lose badly throughout the West and the Northeast.
• Mitt Romney could still win in Nevada next Saturday — a state with more delegates than either Michigan or South Carolina. He could keep it close or even stay ahead in the delegate count with a “second-place-everywhere-until-Super-Tuesday” strategy, since most of the early states award delegates proportionally or by congressional district.
• And while it seems doubtful, it’s conceivable that Fred Thompson could win South Carolina after his debate performance.
  
  In other words, the race remains uncertain. So many unsatisfactory candidates, and so many that remain potentially viable even now. This, plus the geography of the upcoming primaries, could be a recipe for continued turbulence.

It's far from over. Read the rest here.