Voting for One Guy to Stop Another Guy

Right before the Michigan primary I recommended that Michiganders vote for Romney in order to prevent John McCain from winning. I doubt I had any impact, but enough people did vote for Romney for him to win and it somewhat slowed the Straight Talk Express.

Now Patrick Ruffini, a considerably more influential blogger than I, is recommending that South Carolina conservatives unite behind Mike Huckabee to keep John McCain from winning there. He's fearful that a McCain win could give him momentum into Florida and that would possibly knock Rudy out of the race and propel McCain into Super Tuesday with enough momentum to win it all and end up the nominee.

I think it's time to have a serious discussion about Romney and Thompson supporters switching to Huckabee to prevent McCain from getting momentum.

There is a serious chance that the race could effectively end with a McCain victory in SC, in the same way the Dem race probably ended with New Hampshire and past Republican races ended in the same state. With a South Carolina victory, McCain would have a slight advantage going into Florida. Winning Florida and effectively taking Rudy out of the race would then let him run the tables in the big Feb. 5 blue states, starting with California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. not to mention all the red states where he is tied with Mike Huckabee, whom he will have beaten on his home turf.

You may hate Mike Huckabee. You may even dislike him more than John McCain. But without him winning tomorrow night, your guy's path to victory becomes a whole lot harder.

Letting Huckabee win isn't as dangerous as letting McCain win. Huckabee victories aren't convertible to momentum in the same way McCain ones are (just look at the post-IA and NH bounces). He is running below his poll numbers on Intrade for a reason, and that's because he has a hard ceiling of support. That doesn't mean he couldn't win in Minneapolis in a McGovern-like squeaker, but the possibility is remote.

If you're a Romney or a Rudy guy, this is a relative no-brainer. This will be tougher for FredHeads, since their guy has made a stand in the state. But with less than 24 hours to go, and Fred running no better than a weak third, it is probably time to face facts. It's too bad, because conservatives deserve Fred Thompson as a choice, but it just doesn't seem to be happening.

There's one major flaw in his reasoning, and that's the notion that Fredheads will abandon his campaign just as it begins to look like it might go somewhere. Fredheads realize that South Carolina, if not a "must win", is at least a "must finish second" for Fred in order to have any chance in the following contests. People support Fred because they've been looking for a "consistent conservative" in this race and the other candidates are clearly lacking. I just can't see them jumping ship at this last minute to vote for a guy most of them can't stand.

And what if they follow Patrick's advice, vote for Huck and he still finishes behind McCain? They've managed to knock their guy out of the race without accomplishing the goal of stopping McCain. I just don't think they're ready to take that chance.

In my opinion, Fred is the only guy who can unite the GOP and get them to work effectively against the Dem nominee in the general election. Every other candidate will leave one element or another of the GOP feeling left out and unenthusiastic about putting in any effort in the Fall.

Besides that, Patrick's projections are based on polls, and we know they've been all over the place lately. Last minute surges aren't picked up by the polls, and if Fred is surging (as some polls suggest - others don't), it would be a shame to kill off the campaign before anyone really knows how well it might work.