The Coming Crisis in the Democrat Party

Has the DNC gotten anything right this year? The have two powerhouse candidates for president, but the end result of DNC rules may be a Dem civil war. The Washington Post looks at the coming crisis:

The clever people in Michigan who decided to get into a game of chicken with New Hampshire last fall over the timing of their Democratic primary should be having second thoughts this weekend.

Had Michigan Democrats not engaged in gamesmanship over the shape of the nomination calendar, they would be holding the premier contest on today's slate, by far the biggest and most influential of the events between Super Tuesday and next week's Potomac primaries, rather than the nonbinding event that was held Jan. 15.

Michigan Democrats long argued that the party needed a major industrial state playing an early and influential role in the nominating process. Instead, Michigan Democrats -- and those in Florida -- have left their party with a monumental problem: what to do about their delegations to the national convention in Denver in August.

There is a growing sense of urgency about the need to deal with the Michigan-Florida issue, but no easy resolution. What happens could decide whether Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama becomes the party's presidential nominee.

The Democratic National Committee sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their nominating contests in violation of party rules; it declared their primaries unofficial and denied them the right to seat their delegations in Denver. At the time of the sanctions, there was a widespread assumption that the eventual nominee would relent and allow both states full participation at the convention.

That was when it was also assumed that there would be an early outcome to the Clinton-Obama contest and that the winner could appear magnanimous toward two states with pivotal roles in the general election. That was when it was assumed the delegates wouldn't matter in the nomination battle. Today, it's clear they could.

So, why not just go ahead and allow the Michigan and Florida delegations to be seated? In Michigan Obama and Edwards foolishly took their names off the ballot in deference to the DNC, while Hillary left hers on. Consequently, on election night she won by default and if the delegates were allowed, she would get most of them and Obama would get none.

In Florida both were on the ballot but neither campaigned there. Hillary won big and even stretched the rules by holding a big primary night rally in Florida. Would she have won so big if Obama had campaigned down there? The WAPO article has more on the option now available. None of them are very good.

And this is only the beginning of the crises to come. What happens then they get to Denver and Obama has more state wins, more popular votes, and more pledged delegates than Hillary, but Hillary wins thanks to the "superdelegates"? Those folks are DNC officials, state party chairmen and some elected officials who can change their votes at will, but many are already committed to Hillary regardless of the primary and caucus results. They could give her the win.

If that happens, in the words of the immortal Bugs Bunny, "Of course you realize, this means war". There will be a titanic rift in the party just as the final run to the general election gets started. Wouldn't that be fun?

I'll talk about this subject and more on Monday's BlogTalkRadio program which you can hear by clicking on the icon. Feel free to call in and join the conversation. The show kicks off at 8pm PT Monday night.

I've expanded Monday's show to 45 minutes to give us plenty of time. The call-in number will be (347) 347-5547.