The global airline industry will fly 60m fewer seats in the run-up to Christmas - equivalent to a 7% cut in flights - as high oil prices and the economic downturn force carriers to cut services.
Experts predict even deeper cuts in 2009 as part of a prolonged retrenchment of an industry that has expanded rapidly in recent years. Airlines will offer 59.7m fewer seats between October and December compared with the same period last year, according to flight information company OAG. Britain's biggest carriers have already confirmed significant capacity cuts, with Ryanair, easyJet and British Airways all reducing services.
Chris Tarry, a leading industry consultant, said the worldwide cuts, led by US carriers including Continental and American Airlines, will be followed by further reductions next year as airlines pay the price for expanding their fleets by nearly 1,700 aircraft since 2005. According to Boeing, the global commercial airline fleet stood at 19,000 planes at the end of last year. "As we move into the later part of this year, airlines are taking a view on just how difficult the market is going to be. I don't think we have seen all the likely capacity adjustments at this stage. For airlines, 2009 is going to be even more difficult than 2008," said Tarry.
OAG echoed comments by BA chief executive Willie Walsh last week that the airline industry faced its "worst ever" trading environment. Steve Casley, OAG's chief operating officer, said: "From our statistics, it looks quite possible that we may be facing a far more severe global downturn than we have experienced before."
He added that routes will be cut at 275 airports around the world in the final quarter of the year.
Airline travel this holiday season will be a mess. All we'll need a some bad weather in one of the major hubs (Chicago, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta) and Santa will have to deliver his presents to airport waiting lounges.
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