Forecasters are still expecting a northerly turn from Hurricane Ike and the forecast track has shifted north. That would send it roaring ashore right around Freeport, TX, the worst case scenerio for Galveston and Houston.
The approach will be almost perpendicular to the shore which will maximize the storm surge effects. Landfall in this area will put the right front quadrant of the storm, where the highest winds and surge are, very close to Galveston and Houston. Low lying areas in both cities are at tremendous risk of serious flooding.My friends in Rockport will likely get hurricane force winds blowing mostly offshore as the storm passes. Surge probably won't be an issue down there, but wind and rain damage could be serious. Say a prayer for those guys. My Texas correspondent in Frisco is likely to get some pretty good wind and rain out of his too as the storm center wanders up toward Dallas.
For those who haven't read it, my Texas hurricane story (Celia - 1970) is here.
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