Where'd Gilchrist, TX Go?

Jeff Masters has information on another Texas own that no longer exists thanks to Hurricane Ike:

The destruction of Gilchrist

Many of you have probably seen the photo of Gilchrist, Texas showing complete destruction of the town of 750 people, save for one lone home. High-resolution satellite imagery made available by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (Figure 1) confirm that of the approximately 1000 structures existing in the town before Hurricane Ike, only about five survived the hurricane. Approximately 200 of these buildings were homes, and it is thought that some of the residents attempted to ride out the storm in their homes. According to media reports, about 34 survivors from Gilchrist and the neighboring communities of Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar have been fished out of Galveston Bay in the past few days. Rescuers who have reached Gilchrist have not been able to find any victims in the debris because there is no debris. Ike's storm surge knocked 99.5% of the 1,000 buildings in Gilchrist off their foundations and either demolished them or washed them miles inland into the swamplands behind Gilchrist. Until search teams can locate the debris of what was once was Gilchrist, we will not know the fate of those who may have stayed behind to ride out the storm.

There are a lot of areas along the Texas coast that just don't exist anymore. I'm wondering how many people have just vanished.

The Deadly Surge

I did a lot of pre-Ike blogging before the storm hit, but as the storm was coming ashore we had the Metrolink crash here in Southern California that took my attention.

Today I saw a couple of photos on Jeff Masters' blog from Crystal Beach on the Bolivar Peninsula taken by the U.S. Geological Survey. The first was taken September 9th before the storm, and the second on the 15th when the area could finally be surveyed. The red arrow is used to help you orient the photo around the same house.

This area was ground zero for the storm, taking the worst of the winds and surge. Now you can see why authorities were advising people to get out or face certain death.

People Who Ignored Warnings Now Clogging Up the Emergency Services in Texas

The National Weather Service warned people that staying in certain parts of Texas could result in certain death. The local authorities issued mandatory evacation notices, but still thousands of dummies stayed behind and now Texas emergency services are swamped with requests for rescues as people find themselves living in swamped, damaged and sometimes collapsed homes that won't have power or other services for weeks:

GALVESTON, Texas - Rescue crews canvassed neighborhoods inundated by Ike's storm surge early Sunday morning, racing against time to save those who spent a second harrowing night trapped amid flattened houses, strewn debris and downed power lines.

One team of paramedics, rescue dogs and structural engineers fanned out under a nearly full moon on a finger of land in Galveston Bay. Authorities hoped to spare thousands of Texans — 140,000 by some estimates who ignored orders to flee ahead of Hurricane Ike — from another night among the destruction. Some had been rescued, but unknown thousands remained stranded.

Only four deaths had been blamed on Ike so far: two in Texas and two in Louisiana.

President Bush planned to travel to Texas on Tuesday to express sympathy and lend support to the storm's victims. He asked people who evacuated before the hurricane to listen to local authorities before trying to return home.

Roads blocked by waist-deep water and downed trees kept many rescuers at bay as they struggled through the largest search-and-rescue effort in state history, just a day after the Category 2 storm crashed into Texas with 110 mph winds.

As you can probably tell, I have a hard time being sympathetic towards the plight of people who ignored dire warnings and evacuation orders and chose to ride out the storm. Authorities did everything they could to warn these people to get out, and even provided them with places to go and ways to get there if needed, and yet they stupidly stayed behind and now are burdening the emergency services of the state that are needed elsewhere.

The emergency people should be spending their time clearing roads and debris and restoring power, not digging dummies out of their houses. Every one of these people who have to be rescued after the fact should be fined for the expense of their rescue. These people have created a humanitarian disaster that didn't need to happen.

Many Refused to Evacuate Houston/Galveston Area

This could make a bad situation a whole lot worse:

HOUSTON (AP) - Authorities say tens of thousands have ignored evacuation orders and are staying behind as Hurricane Ike takes aim at the Texas coast.

An Associated Press survey shows that in three counties alone, some 90,000 people have chosen not to leave despite dire warnings from forecasters.

The emergency management coordinator for Galveston County estimates that 80 percent of the residents evacuated. That leaves more than 11,000 residents in the county that is expected to take a direct hit from Ike's massive storm surge.

Farther up the coast, officials say half the residents of Beaumont stayed put less than two weeks after many evacuated for Hurricane Gustav, only to see the storm miss the city entirely.

The people in Galveston County may not be there in the morning - at least not in a recognizable form. They are supposed to get upwards of a 20 foot storm surge in Galveston, and any non-concrete buildlings will likely be swept away. Not smart.

Unfortunately, this is what happens when you have a situation like Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Gustav a couple of weeks ago in which millions of people evacuated, but the storms missed the major population areas. People get complacent, and unfortunately, a great many of them could pay the ultimate price.

Your Hurricane Ike Feel Good Story of the Day

Hurricane Ike, meet Geraldo Rivera:

Ike is Moving In

Ike is still 200 miles out to sea, but the dangerous surge with pounding waves on top is already moving in to the Galveston area. This warning from the National Weather Service is one of the most dramatic I've ever read:

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

The Fox station in Houston has a live feed online that's pretty good. You can find it here.

Galveston is only 7 feet above sea level. I've heard that they have a 17-foot seawall, but based on forecasts, that's not going to be enough.

I spent a few days in Galveston after we escaped from Corpus Christi following Hurricane Celia in 1970. Galveston was untouched in that storm, but the damage this time could rival the infamous 1900 storm (though thankfully there won't be that kind of loss of life).

Ike Track Setting Up For a Bad Day in Houston

The track is narrowing right on Freeport, TX which will make for a very bad day in Galveston and Houston:
The real scary about the graphic above is that Ike is still shown as a hurricane as far inland as the Tyler area. That's a lot of Texas that will be hit by hurricane or tropical force winds and rain, and these things always spin off tornados when they make landfall.

This is starting to look like a really serious storm.

Related: My Texas hurricane story (Celia - 1970)

UPDATE - From Accuweather:

Very large Hurricane Ike continues to barrel toward a potentially devastating strike in Galveston and Houston, Texas. The damage could be on a level not seen since Hurricane Alicia tore a path of destruction through the cities in 1983.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that Ike should reach Category 3 strength as it moves northwest through the Gulf of Mexico.

Landfall is forecast early on Saturday between Freeport and Galveston, which puts Houston and surrounding Harris County on the dangerous east side of the storm.

Because of the expected intensity of the hurricane at landfall and the angle at which Ike will approach the upper Texas coast, a storm surge of up to 20 feet may occur in Galveston Bay with a storm surge of 12 to 16 feet expected on the immediate coast. Gulf water will be pushed into the confined area of Galveston Bay. Hence the higher storm surge.

Ike Aiming at Freeport, TX - Very Bad News for Galveston/Houston

UPDATE - The 9/11 1pm(ET) updated track has added below.

Forecasters are still expecting a northerly turn from Hurricane Ike and the forecast track has shifted north. That would send it roaring ashore right around Freeport, TX, the worst case scenerio for Galveston and Houston.

The approach will be almost perpendicular to the shore which will maximize the storm surge effects. Landfall in this area will put the right front quadrant of the storm, where the highest winds and surge are, very close to Galveston and Houston. Low lying areas in both cities are at tremendous risk of serious flooding.

My friends in Rockport will likely get hurricane force winds blowing mostly offshore as the storm passes. Surge probably won't be an issue down there, but wind and rain damage could be serious. Say a prayer for those guys. My Texas correspondent in Frisco is likely to get some pretty good wind and rain out of his too as the storm center wanders up toward Dallas.

For those who haven't read it, my Texas hurricane story (Celia - 1970) is here.

Ike's Gonna Hit Texas - Could Be A "Worst Case" Storm

Looking at the forecast track last night I though Ike would continue west and south and possibly hit down around Brownsville, but tonight the forecasters are calling for a northward turn that going to take the storm very close to my friends in Rockport:
It's a little hard to tell from these maps, but it looks like the current track would have landfall around Port Lavaca, which is only about 50 miles from Rockport. If correct, Rockport will be in for a rough ride. Being left of center they may avoid the worst of the storm surge, but they'll be subject to hurricane force winds and heavy rain. Not good.

There is some thought that atmospheric conditions will move the storm a little more to the north - good for Rockport, bad for Houston. If the storm makes landfall around Freeport, TX, the front right quadrant (where the strongest winds and heaviest storm surge are) will be focused right on Galveston and Houston. Severe storm surge conditions could flood hundreds of thousands of homes.

Some are saying this could be the strongest storm to hit Texas in 40 years. I rode out Hurricane Celia, a strong Cat 3 in Corpus Christi in 1970 that did tremendous damage, and this one could be worse.

Ike Goes Further West

With every new model the projected track of Hurricane Ike moves a little further west. That's been good news for Miami, New Orleans, and possibly Houston, but it could be a problem for my friends in Rockport, TX. The latest storm track has it hitting pretty much straight into the Rockport area - maybe just a little north.
They dodged a bullet with Dolly earlier this summer, but I'm not liking what I see with this one. Each update has moved the track further south and west, so there's still the chance it will move more on track with what Dolly did and end up around Brownsville. We'll see.

Ike Update

First it looked like Ike was going to blast Miami, then maybe Tampa, then may New Orleans, and now it looks like Houston is in the crosshairs:
The track keeps shifting south and west, but the storm is now getting close enough that the models should start to coalesce in one general direction. Wherever it ends up, it's likely to be a very strong storm when it comes ashore.

Uh Oh

The new forecast track for Hurricane Ike is pointing in a very bad direction:
Good thing Louisiana has a Republican governor, but I'm not sure the Obamessiah himself can save New Orleans from another direct hit. Will 2 million people willingly evacuate for the second time in two weeks, especially given the weakened and glancing blow brought by Gustav. There may be a great many people who just won't leave no matter the forecast, and that could be disastrous.

Ike Track Shifts West

Tropical storm Hanna is giving the East Coast a good wash and blow dry, and the next threat from Ike could be another big problem for the Gulf Coast.

The forecast track for Hurricane Ike has shifted west - good news for Miami, but if you extend that track a bit, all those folks who just evacuated from New Orleans might just want to stay wherever they are:

It's gonna be an expensive hurricane season.

Hanna Will Rake the East Coast, but Ike is Scarier

The Eastern U.S. is in for two tropical systems in the next few days. First, Hanna which looks like it will stay a tropical storm but will hit most of the East coast:
That one will be a rainmaker with flooding potential, but Ike could be a disaster looking for a place to happen, and that place is Miami:When Andrew hit south of Miami in 1992 I saw one report that said if the storm had gone 20 miles further north it might have put one of the nation's largest insurers out of business. Andrew was a pretty compact but powerful storm. Ike is much larger at this point and could be a 3 or 4 at landfall. A Cat 4 making a direct hit on Miami would make Katrina look like a summer shower.

There's still plenty of room for variation in the extended model, but at this point in time the forecasters had pretty much nailed the exact path of Gustav, and that's worrisome.

Hurricane Hanna, Look Out Savannah!

I'm a poet and I don't know it. With Gustav still at hurricane force but now over land, our next contestant in the Atlantic hurricane season is Hanna:

And, if that's not enough, TD Nine - soon to be "Ike" - is coming next:



There's yet a third area of concern called Invest 99 that's just come off the African coast. No word yet on what they think it will do.