Where are the New and Youth Voters?

Every election we're told that the youth voters and new voters will turn out in record numbers, and every election that fails to happen. Once again we're assured that the Obamessiah will bring out these mythical voters, but in Nevada, the early results indicate otherwise:

Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going.

While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.

The data provide a glimpse into the composition of the more than 300,000 Nevadans who had taken advantage of early voting over the first nine days of the 14-day period. The information comes from proprietary databases that political action groups purchase from commercial vendors, cross-referenced with the public data the state releases showing who has voted.

Traditionally, older people, whites and people who vote consistently tend to turn out at the highest rates overall, said David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV. But this year, much has been made of the idea that the youth vote, the Hispanic vote and first-time voters would turn out at unprecedented rates, galvanized by a heightened political climate and the candidacy of Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

"I would have expected those numbers to be a little higher," Damore said. "At the same time, the people who come out for early voting may tend to be the tried and true."

Let's think about this for a second. If the youth and new voters are so fired up about Obama, why wouldn't they be at the head of the line in early voting?

Let me tell you what's really going to happen. Certainly some of these youth and new voters will make the effort and get their votes in. However, those that wait until Tuesday are much less likely to vote. They'll show up at polls with long lines and won't have the patience to stick it out. Since the media has already assured them that it's over and Obama's win is a foregone conclusion, they'll skip voting because it's not worth their time to just to add to the landslide victory. This is one of the many risks facing Obama on Election Day.

And on November 5th the "experts" will once again be scratching their heads trying to figure out why the youth and new voters didn't show up.