Keep an Eye on Hillary

She's going to be the "canary-in-the-coal-mine" for the Obama Administration. Just doing some out-of-the-box thinking here about Hillary Clinton, her role in the administration, and her future.

2009 was not a particularly pleasant time for Barack Obama. The rainbows and unicorns promised during the campaign, and for which millions showed up in D.C. barely a year ago on inauguration day, have failed to appear. Obama's approval rating has dropped like the big crystal ball in Times Square on New Year's Eve.

Democrats, flush with their number advantage in the House and Senate, have tried to ram through the most leftist agenda ever seen in a non-banana republic. With leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, what could go wrong?

Well, generic congressional polls now show the GOP with a 6 point lead after being down by 7 on election day. Majorities of voters don't want Obamacare or cap-and-tax, the Porkulus has been a failure as the job numbers continue to stagger, a populist revolt in the form of Tea Party protests made congressmen very uncomfortable over the summer, and 2010 doesn't look like it's going to get any better. If the Dems continue pushing Obamacare and add amnesty for illegals to their 2010 goals, things will get very ugly for them in November.

So, back to Hillary. Is she going to be content to ride this ship all the way to the ocean floor?

I don't think so.

Here's a scenario that I think may become more realistic as the year unfolds. Should Obama and the Dems continue to slide, and especially if the Dems take a bloodbath in November, I look for Hillary to resign the Secretary of State's job sometime in early 2011. Nobody will believe she wants to "spend more time with her family" so she'll have to come up with another excuse. In reality, she'll be setting the table for a primary challenge to Obama in 2012.

And she'll be very popular. She barely lost the nomination in 2008 and given Obama's performance and her work as Secretary of State, her star probably shines brighter today than ever. For one thing, she hasn't been in the news all that much and we haven't had to listen to her. That's gotta help.

So, with Hillary out of the Secretary of State's office, who will Obama choose to replace her? Here's where the scenario becomes even more interesting - Joe Biden. Biden's many years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be cited as the main reason to move him to SoS, though the real reason will have more to do with the fact that Biden will be a drag on the 2012 ticket. He's not seen as a viable future candidate for 2016 and frankly people are a little bit afraid that something will happen to Obama and we'll get stuck with President Biden.

This will give Obama and his political crew the opportunity to choose his potential successor, someone younger and more attractive as a 2016 candidate. Confirmation could be a bit problematic should the GOP pick up a bunch of Senate seats this year, but I don't know if they will have the stomach to filibuster a vice presidential nominee.

Meanwhile Hillary will be the Ted Kennedy of 2012, challenging the sitting president the way Kennedy challenged Carter in 1980 - only she'll win. The nomination, that is, but not necessarily the White House. That will depend on both the GOP nominee and voter feelings about Democrats in general. After four years of unbridled liberalism the voters may not be willing to take a chance that Hillary will be any better. Her history certainly suggests she just as much a lefty as Obama, though possibly more competent.

Keep your eyes on Hillary - she could be the early warning sign of what's to come for Obama and the Democrats.

By the way, this is what happens when I spend 16 hours driving over two days. I start thinking up crazy scenarios like this.