HolyCoast California Primary Picks

I'm rerunning this item in advance of tomorrow's primary election with some corrections I've made since it was first published on June 1st.  I changed my mind about a couple of candidates
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GOVERNOR

I don't think I've ever been as conflicted between two GOP candidates as I have been on this one.  The choice is between Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO who rarely ever participated in the political system by voting and hasn't held elective office before, and Steve Poizner, the current Insurance Commissioner and former Silicon Valley businessman.  I met Poizner at a small campaign event on May 8th, and while he talks a good game, there's a deal killer in his background that's going to be a problem.

Many conservatives are concerned that Whitman will be another version of the Governator, someone who's never been in elective office and will cave to the left when the pressure's on.  I don't know if that't true or not.  It is true that she's the candidate the Dems are most afraid of.  Right now Democrat organizations are pouring money into pro-Poizner ads, not because they like his politics, but because they think he'll be easier for Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown to beat in November.  That's a big concern because California cannot afford a liberal legislature and Jerry Brown as governor.  Meg may not be Ronald Reagan, but if she can beat Brown we're still ahead of the game.

The deal killer I mentioned before is Poizner's support for Al Gore in 2000 and his contributions to the Florida recount.  That to me is the unpardonable sin.  I don't care what he's saying today, anyone who worked to overturn the election results in Florida 2000 is not going to get my support.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Governor:  MEG WHITMAN


SENATE - GOP

This is another tough race with three candidates: Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell.  I can write Campbell out of the equation immediately because of his continuous support for higher taxes and bigger government.  Classic RINO.  We've already got a liberal in office, the GOP doesn't need to send another one.  Polls suggest he's the only one that can beat Boxer, but I think that will change after the primary.

Carly Fiorina's past somewhat matches Meg Whitmans - CEO of big business who rarely even voted.  Her politics are somewhat unknown - there's fear she could be another RINO masquerading as a conservative.  Hard to say, but given that her general election opponent Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer is borderline communist, even a mystery guest would be an improvement.

Chuck DeVore is the classic conservative, hitting all the right issues.  He also can't win.  He's trailing Fiorina by a huge margin and would probably trail Boxer by even more.  While my heart supports DeVore, it would be a guaranteed loser in November.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Senator on the GOP ticket:  CARLY FIORINA


SENATOR - DEM

I have no interest in seeing a Democrat elected Senator again, but Boxer does have an opponent in the primary that she and the media have tried hard to ignore - journalist Mickey Kaus.  Mickey's a smart guy and certainly far more centrist than Boxer.  That's why I'm going to make a Dem pick.

The HolyCoast pick for Senator on the DEM ticket:  MICKEY KAUS


Some of the rest of these I'll do quickly:

The HolyCoast pick for Lt. Governor:  SAM AANESTAD

The HolyCoast pick for Secretary Of State:  DAMON DUNN

The HolyCoast pick for Controller:  TONY STRICKLAND

The HolyCoast pick for Treasurer:  MIMI WALTERS

The HolyCoast pick for Attorney General:  JOHN EASTMAN

The HolyCoast pick for Insurance Commissioner:  BRIAN FITZGERALD  
I took another look after I was reminded of Villines' role in pushing a huge tax increase.

The HolyCoast pick for Congress, 42nd District:  LEO MCGROARTY 

The HolyCoast pick for School Superintendent:  LARRY ACEVES

The HolyCoast pick for Orange County Sheriff:  BILL HUNT

CALIFORNIA BALLOT PROPOSITION

As always there are a bunch of contentious ballot propositions in this primary:

PROPOSITION 13 - YES

Just seems like a good idea.

PROPOSITION 14 - NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!

This measure was put on the ballot by the governor and legislature to buy off Abel Maldonado's vote for a huge tax increase.  Maldonado is a moderate who can't win a statewide GOP primary against a conservative opponent, so he demanded an open primary initiative to give him a chance to one day become governor.

This measure does away with party-only primaries.  Instead of each party choosing a candidate for the general election from their party, all candidates from all parties will be lumped together in one primary with only the top two vote getters going on to the general.  This is being sold to Californians as a way to "fix Sacramento", and "increase participation" but will in fact eliminate all the minor parties from the general election and may leave the voters with choices in some races between two members of the same party.  The law also allows candidates to hide their party affiliation on the primary ballot so you may not even know which party a candidate supports.  There's more info here.  Conservatives and liberals should be equally angry about this since this measure attempts to marginalize anyone who's not a moderate, and members of third parties, such as Libertarians, Green, Peace and Freedom, Constitution...etc. must realize they will never again see a member of their party on the general election ballot if this passes.

PROPOSITION 15 - NO, NO, HELL NO!!

This measure would take your tax dollars and use them to fund political campaigns in California.  No thanks.

PROPOSITION 16 - NO

The electricity companies seem to be pouring an awful lot of money into supporting this thing.  That makes me suspicious of their motives.  This is basically being done by PG&E go protect their market share in Northern California.

PROPOSITION 17 - NO

Looks like a disguised insurance rate hike to me.

CITY OF MISSION VIEJO MEASURE D - YES

This measure would take the responsibility from major zoning changes away from the City Council and give it to the voters.  While I have a friend on the City Council who opposes this measure, I have to support it.  I believe it's the best way to remove the influence of developers who would transform parcels in our fine city into high density apartments or other housing that would increase traffic and possibly crime rates.  This city was master planned very well and I don't want developer money screwing that up.

There you have it.  Don't forget to vote on June 8 (unless you don't agree with me in which case you should stay home).

HolyCoast California Primary Picks

One week from today will be the California primary, so it's time for me to make my picks.  For the most part I'll be working off the Republican ballot, though I will make one Democrat pick.

GOVERNOR

I don't think I've ever been as conflicted between two GOP candidates as I have been on this one.  The choice is between Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO who rarely ever participated in the political system by voting and hasn't held elective office before, and Steve Poizner, the current Insurance Commissioner and former Silicon Valley businessman.  I met Poizner at a small campaign event on May 8th, and while he talks a good game, there's a deal killer in his background that's going to be a problem.

Many conservatives are concerned that Whitman will be another version of the Governator, someone who's never been in elective office and will cave to the left when the pressure's on.  I don't know if that't true or not.  It is true that she's the candidate the Dems are most afraid of.  Right now Democrat organizations are pouring money into pro-Poizner ads, not because they like his politics, but because they think he'll be easier for Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown to beat in November.  That's a big concern because California cannot afford a liberal legislature and Jerry Brown as governor.  Meg may not be Ronald Reagan, but if she can beat Brown we're still ahead of the game.

The deal killer I mentioned before is Poizner's support for Al Gore in 2000 and his contributions to the Florida recount.  That to me is the unpardonable sin.  I don't care what he's saying today, anyone who worked to overturn the election results in Florida 2000 is not going to get my support.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Governor:  MEG WHITMAN


SENATE - GOP

This is another tough race with three candidates: Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell.  I can write Campbell out of the equation immediately because of his continuous support for higher taxes and bigger government.  Classic RINO.  We've already got a liberal in office, the GOP doesn't need to send another one.  Polls suggest he's the only one that can beat Boxer, but I think that will change after the primary.

Carly Fiorina's past somewhat matches Meg Whitmans - CEO of big business who rarely even voted.  Her politics are somewhat unknown - there's fear she could be another RINO masquerading as a conservative.  Hard to say, but given that her general election opponent Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer is borderline communist, even a mystery guest would be an improvement.

Chuck DeVore is the classic conservative, hitting all the right issues.  He also can't win.  He's trailing Fiorina by a huge margin and would probably trail Boxer by even more.  While my heart supports DeVore, it would be a guaranteed loser in November.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Senator on the GOP ticket:  CARLY FIORINA


SENATOR - DEM

I have no interest in seeing a Democrat elected Senator again, but Boxer does have an opponent in the primary that she and the media have tried hard to ignore - journalist Mickey Kaus.  Mickey's a smart guy and certainly far more centrist than Boxer.  That's why I'm going to make a Dem pick.

The HolyCoast pick for Senator on the DEM ticket:  MICKEY KAUS


Some of the rest of these I'll do quickly:

The HolyCoast pick for Lt. Governor:  SAM AANESTAD

The HolyCoast pick for Secretary Of State:  DAMON DUNN

The HolyCoast pick for Controller:  TONY STRICKLAND

The HolyCoast pick for Treasurer:  MIMI WALTERS

The HolyCoast pick for Attorney General:  JOHN EASTMAN

The HolyCoast pick for Insurance Commissioner:  MIKE VILLINES BRIAN FITZGERALD  
I took another look after I was reminded of Villines' role in pushing a huge tax increase.

The HolyCoast pick for Congress, 42nd District:  GARY MILLER LEO MCGROARTY This and comments below, changed my mind.

The HolyCoast pick for School Superintendent:  LARRY ACEVES

The HolyCoast pick for Orange County Sheriff:  BILL HUNT

CALIFORNIA BALLOT PROPOSITION

As always there are a bunch of contentious ballot propositions in this primary:

PROPOSITION 13 - YES

Just seems like a good idea.

PROPOSITION 14 - NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!

This measure was put on the ballot by the governor and legislature to buy off Abel Maldonado's vote for a huge tax increase.  Maldonado is a moderate who can't win a statewide GOP primary against a conservative opponent, so he demanded an open primary initiative to give him a chance to one day become governor.

This measure does away with party-only primaries.  Instead of each party choosing a candidate for the general election from their party, all candidates from all parties will be lumped together in one primary with only the top two vote getters going on to the general.  This is being sold to Californians as a way to "fix Sacramento", and "increase participation" but will in fact eliminate all the minor parties from the general election and may leave the voters with choices in some races between two members of the same party.  The law also allows candidates to hide their party affiliation on the primary ballot so you may not even know which party a candidate supports.  There's more info here.  Conservatives and liberals should be equally angry about this since this measure attempts to marginalize anyone who's not a moderate, and members of third parties, such as Libertarians, Green, Peace and Freedom, Constitution...etc. must realize they will never again see a member of their party on the general election ballot if this passes.

PROPOSITION 15 - 

NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!

This measure would take your tax dollars and use them to fund political campaigns in California.  No thanks.

PROPOSITION 16 - NO

The electricity companies seem to be pouring an awful lot of money into supporting this thing.  That makes me suspicious of their motives.

PROPOSITION 17 - NO

Looks like a disguised insurance rate hike to me.

CITY OF MISSION VIEJO MEASURE D - YES

This measure would take the responsibility from major zoning changes away from the City Council and give it to the voters.  While I have a friend on the City Council who opposes this measure, I have to support it.  I believe it's the best way to remove the influence of developers who would transform parcels in our fine city into high density apartments or other housing that would increase traffic and possibly crime rates.  This city was master planned very well and I don't want developer money screwing that up.

There you have it.  Don't forget to vote on June 8.

Whitman Leading, Senate Race Tied

Things are tightening up in the big California primary races:

GOP governor candidate Meg Whitman's once-huge lead has shrunk to single digits, while Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are deadlocked in the Republican race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Whitman leads fellow Republican Steve Poizner 38 percent to 29 percent among likely voters in the June 8 GOP primary, a dramatic drop from the 61 percent to 11 percent lead she posted in the March PPIC poll. Undecided voters account for 31 percent.

"After being written off by so-called experts, we are in striking distance, and our job over these final weeks is to convince the undecided voters that Steve Poizner is the right candidate," said Poizner spokesman Jarrod Agen. "They've been hearing about Whitman for many months now, but they are not sold on her."

While Whitman's TV advertising campaign was in full swing by the time of the March poll, Poizner started advertising afterward. Shifting poll numbers indicate success in his message approach.

In one recent poll Poizner was down by only two, and that has been reflected in Whitman's new advertising push.

Over on the Senate side things are even tighter:

In the GOP primary to determine who will challenge Boxer, Fiorina is polling at 25 percent and Campbell at 23, virtually unchanged from PPIC's March poll. Chuck DeVore is at 16 percent, doubling his numbers in the past two months. But 36 percent remain undecided.

"I think the governor's race, because of all the money and attention devoted to it, has overshadowed the Senate primary,'' said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president.

Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO, is the only candidate currently on broadcast television. Her campaign spokeswoman, Julie Soderlund, said this poll "smells like a trend that is moving in Carly's favor'' despite there being virtually no movement.

Campbell spokesman James Fisfis said the poll shows the public has not yet fully engaged in the race.

"Right now, we're holding our own,'' he said, adding that DeVore's gains "show that conservatives are engaged and nobody else is.''

DeVore, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Express, is "part of a national phenomenon but has a special resonance within California,'' said DeVore spokesman Joshua Trevino.

In general election matchups, Boxer leads Fiorina 48 percent to 39 percent, leads Campbell 46 percent to 40 percent, and leads DeVore 50 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.

I've seen lots of Carly Fiorina ads, but I don't think I've yet seen an TV spot for Tom Campbell or Chuck DeVore.

The primary is June 8th which means TV will be littered with ads until then.

LA Times Declines to Endorse Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer in Primary

This will leave a mark.  Not a fatal one, but one that will sting:

The editors at the biggest newspaper on the West Coast, who were expected to endorse Sen. Barbara Boxer in her primary campaign against token opposition, have decided to remain neutral, saying the California Democrat doesn't display enough intellectual firepower.

The Los Angeles Times on Friday declined to offer endorsements in all Democratic and Republican primaries for governor and Senate, saying the races have been undermined by politics and money.

But the newspaper's decision to sit on the sidelines for the Boxer race could prove to be the most damaging of all, given the newspaper's criticism of the three-term senator.

"On the Democratic side, we find that we're no fans of incumbent Barbara Boxer," the newspaper said in an editorial Friday. "She displays less intellectual firepower or leadership than she could."

The newspaper said Boxer's opponent, Robert "Mickey" Kaus, was not a "realistic contender," but ir praised him for asking "pertinent questions about Boxer's 'lockstep liberalism' on labor, immigration and other matters."


"But we can't endorse him, because he gives no indication that he would step up to the job and away from his Democratic-gadfly persona," the newspaper said.

The Times left the door open for an endorsement in the general election.

Don't kid yourself - the Times will endorse Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer should she win the nomination. They won't be able to help themselves.

Mickey Kaus is one Democrat I could almost vote for. Note the word "almost". He's been a tough critic of knee-jerk liberalism and he'd be an entertaining Senator. However, he probably won't survive the primary.

On the GOP side Sarah Palin made news yesterday when she endorsed the most liberal of the three candidates running for the GOP nomination. I'm not sure what she was thinking when she went with Carly Fiorina. Both Tom Campbell and especially Chuck DeVore are more conservative than Fiorina and would have given voters a much greater contrast with the ultra-liberal Boxer. I could understand why she endorsed RINO John McCain, but this one is a mystery.

CA Senate Race Becoming More Competitive

The political analysts who look at the status of various races have downgraded the CA Senate race (at least in the minds of Democrats):

To reflect polling showing a tightening general election race and California voters’ particularly sour mood about the direction of their state and the country, CQ Politics is changing its race rating from Likely Democratic to the increasingly competitive Leans Democratic.


Two polls conducted in March showed Boxer’s lead over two potential Republican challengers narrowing to a virtual tie. One of those two surveys, the Field Poll, had Boxer leading by double digits as recently as January.


And while the three Republican candidates for the GOP nomination – former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Rep. Tom Campbell and state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore – have benefited from plenty of earned media thanks to their testy primary battle, Boxer’s drop in the polls came before any of them were on the air with campaign ads.

There is so much film of Boxer acting like a complete idiot it's hard to believe that there isn't at least one of these Republicans who can beat her.

Political Quote of the Day

From Sen. James Inhofe, talking about the California Senate election:

“Defeating Barbara Boxer is not a victory, it’s a contribution to humankind.”

Very, very true.

Right now there are three Republicans in the race - Chuck DeVore, Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell. I would certainly lean toward DeVore, but I'd take pretty much anybody who could be Boxer.

Boxer Still in Potential Trouble in CA

Rasmussen has the numbers:

For the second month in a row, incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is in surprisingly tight races with three potential Republican challengers in California.

Most troubling for Boxer in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state is her continuing inability to cross the 50% threshold against any of the GOP hopefuls. Incumbents who capture less than 50% of the vote at this stage of the campaign are considered vulnerable.

But as Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, points out: "Vulnerable incumbents still have the power of their office and still have a decent chance of winning. The Democratic-leaning political gravity of California will certainly give Senator Boxer a boost in that effort.”

Boxer leads former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46% to 42%, virtually unchanged from January. Another seven percent (7%) would vote for some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided. Boxer led Fiorina by nine points in November and 10 points in September.

The incumbent also holds a four-point lead over former Congressman Tom Campbell, 45% to 41%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 10% are undecided. Boxer held the same lead over Campbell, just after he joined the race in January.

Boxer leads still state Assemblyman Chuck Devore, 47% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in that match-up, and five percent (5%) are undecided. In January, Boxer held a 46% to 40% advantage over Devore. In November, she led Devore by 10 points.

The fact that Boxer’s support has been stuck in the mid-40s for several surveys no matter which Republican she is matched against continues to suggest that the race for now is about her rather than about those who are running against her.

Incumbents polling below 50% are in trouble, and Boxer is not an attractive candidate on her best day. She's abrasive and moderately stupid, a far left liberal who is still obsessed with silliness like global warming. Even in California she may have a tough time getting re-elected.

Political Quote of the Day

From Sen. Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer:

“Every state is now in play.”

Yes, they are. And especially those states represented by dimwits, like California.

In fact, things are heating up in the California GOP Senate race:

Former Congressman Tom Campbell, who only last week switched his political sights from the governor’s race to the U.S. Senate, has become the front runner in the California GOP Senate primary.

In a survey completed between January 5 and 17, The Field Poll finds Campbell the choice of 30% of likely GOP primary election voters, businesswoman Carly Fiorina receives 25%, while Assemblyman Chuck DeVore trails at 6%. About four in ten (39%) of GOP primary voters are undecided. …

When paired against each of the GOP candidates in general election match-ups, Boxer leads Campbell by ten points (48% to 38%), Fiorina by fifteen points (50% to 35%) and DeVore by seventeen points (51% to 34%).

Campbell and DeVore are the true conservatives in the race. Fiorina has lots of money but is not as conservative. We'll see who prevails. Right now I think those polls showing Boxer in the lead are being generous to the Dems.