Well, How Did We Do?

Last night was a mixed bag in the California Primary.  Here are my choices compared to the actual results.

GOVERNOR - Meg Whitman.  Whitman won big.  Race was called almost as soon as the polls closed.  She spent $71 million of her own money to define herself as a conservative, so the real question now is whether she'll run to the center and moderate her positions for the general election.  She'll be facing the hard left union-supported dinosaur Democrat Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown, who of course, will not be urged by the press to run to the center.

Loser Steve Poizner, who dropped $24 million of his money in the effort, was rumored last night to say he wouldn't support Whitman in the general election.  If true, my concerns about Poizner were well-founded.

SENATE - GOP - Carly Fiorina.  Fiorina also won big, but with not quite the margin that Whitman had.  Again, will she feel it necessary to run to the center?  She'll be facing wacky far lefty Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer.

SENATOR - DEM - Mickey Kaus.  Kaus was tromped as expected, but good for him for showing how out-of-touch the Democrats have become.

Lt. Governor: SAM AANESTAD.  Aanestad lost to Abel Maldonado, former Senator and current Lt. Governor.  He will run against the detestable Mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom.  As much as I dislike the arrogant Newsom, it is my goal to see that Maldonado is run out of California electoral politics.  He sold his vote for the largest tax increase in CA history, and in exchange got Prop 14 which passed  last night and essentially destroys California's primary electoral system.  More about that later.  In this race I'll do the unthinkable and vote for a Democrat I detest just because I detest Maldonado even more.

Secretary Of State: DAMON DUNN.  Dunn won huge against Birther Lawyer/Dentist Orly Taitz and will face Debra Bowen in November.

Controller: TONY STRICKLAND.  Strickland won comfortably and will face John Chiang in November.

Treasurer: MIMI WALTERS.  Walters was unopposed and will face Bill Lockyear in November.

Attorney General: JOHN EASTMAN.  Eastman lost to L.A. District Attorney Steve Cooley who will face San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris in November.

Insurance Commissioner: BRIAN FITZGERALD.  Fitzgerald narrowly defeated GOP turncoat Mike Villines, who also helped the Democrats pass a huge tax increase,  and will face Dave Jones in November.

Congress, 42nd District: LEO MCGROARTY.  McGroarty finished a distant third to incumbent Gary Miller who will likely win reelection against Michael Williamson in November.

School Superintendent: LARRY ACEVES.  Aceves got only 18.8% of the vote but still came out on top, beating the second place finisher by .7%.

Orange County Sheriff: BILL HUNT.  Hunt finished a distance 2nd to incumbent Sheriff Sandra Hutchens.

CALIFORNIA BALLOT PROPOSITION

PROPOSITION 13 - YES.  13 won big.

PROPOSITION 14 - NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!.  Prop 14 won, so third parties may now disband because they'll never have a candidate in a general election in CA ever again.  We now have a primary system worthy of a High School prom queen election featuring all candidates from all parties in one race, with absolutely no requirement that any candidate disclose truthfully or otherwise his political party.  The top two vote getters will go to the general election.  A very stupid move by Californians who were clearly mislead by the advertising and didn't bother to get the facts.

PROPOSITION 15 - NO, NO, HELL NO!!.  Prop 15 lost rather handily, and once again  California is safe from public funding of elections.

PROPOSITION 16 - NO.  When I turned in last night it looked like 16 was going to win.  The power companies, led by PG&E, poured millions into ads for this measure, but it lost by 5 points.

PROPOSITION 17 - NO. Again, looked like it would win last night but lost by 4.  Insurance companies put a lot of money into this one which I'm sure will show up in our rates.

CITY OF MISSION VIEJO MEASURE D - YES.  D lost big which concerns me that the City Council will feel newly empowered to rezone the city at will, thus giving us high density apartments and other residences that will increase traffic and crime.  The city's Master Plan was well-thought out and has given us a very nice place to live.  I'd hate to see that diminished by developers and their minions on the Council.

Just a Thought

I was reading about today's election and saw that so far Meg Whitman has spent something like $70 million of her own money so far, and Steve Poizner has kicked in about $24 million of his money.

If I had that kind of money the LAST thing I'd want to do is run for public office.  I can't think of a more thankless job these days than California governor.  The state's in the tank with huge deficits, the unions will try and stop any cuts where they really need to be made, and the voters are not in the mood for higher taxes as the state's economy crumbles.

If I had their money you'd never see me again.  I'd be traveling and working on some charitable projects rather than blowing the bucks on TV ads and campaign mailers.

The real winners today will probably be the candidates that lose.

I'll be following all the primary results from across the country tonight as the numbers come in. Be sure and check back.

And you can find my California primary picks here.

HolyCoast California Primary Picks

I'm rerunning this item in advance of tomorrow's primary election with some corrections I've made since it was first published on June 1st.  I changed my mind about a couple of candidates
================================

GOVERNOR

I don't think I've ever been as conflicted between two GOP candidates as I have been on this one.  The choice is between Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO who rarely ever participated in the political system by voting and hasn't held elective office before, and Steve Poizner, the current Insurance Commissioner and former Silicon Valley businessman.  I met Poizner at a small campaign event on May 8th, and while he talks a good game, there's a deal killer in his background that's going to be a problem.

Many conservatives are concerned that Whitman will be another version of the Governator, someone who's never been in elective office and will cave to the left when the pressure's on.  I don't know if that't true or not.  It is true that she's the candidate the Dems are most afraid of.  Right now Democrat organizations are pouring money into pro-Poizner ads, not because they like his politics, but because they think he'll be easier for Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown to beat in November.  That's a big concern because California cannot afford a liberal legislature and Jerry Brown as governor.  Meg may not be Ronald Reagan, but if she can beat Brown we're still ahead of the game.

The deal killer I mentioned before is Poizner's support for Al Gore in 2000 and his contributions to the Florida recount.  That to me is the unpardonable sin.  I don't care what he's saying today, anyone who worked to overturn the election results in Florida 2000 is not going to get my support.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Governor:  MEG WHITMAN


SENATE - GOP

This is another tough race with three candidates: Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell.  I can write Campbell out of the equation immediately because of his continuous support for higher taxes and bigger government.  Classic RINO.  We've already got a liberal in office, the GOP doesn't need to send another one.  Polls suggest he's the only one that can beat Boxer, but I think that will change after the primary.

Carly Fiorina's past somewhat matches Meg Whitmans - CEO of big business who rarely even voted.  Her politics are somewhat unknown - there's fear she could be another RINO masquerading as a conservative.  Hard to say, but given that her general election opponent Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer is borderline communist, even a mystery guest would be an improvement.

Chuck DeVore is the classic conservative, hitting all the right issues.  He also can't win.  He's trailing Fiorina by a huge margin and would probably trail Boxer by even more.  While my heart supports DeVore, it would be a guaranteed loser in November.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Senator on the GOP ticket:  CARLY FIORINA


SENATOR - DEM

I have no interest in seeing a Democrat elected Senator again, but Boxer does have an opponent in the primary that she and the media have tried hard to ignore - journalist Mickey Kaus.  Mickey's a smart guy and certainly far more centrist than Boxer.  That's why I'm going to make a Dem pick.

The HolyCoast pick for Senator on the DEM ticket:  MICKEY KAUS


Some of the rest of these I'll do quickly:

The HolyCoast pick for Lt. Governor:  SAM AANESTAD

The HolyCoast pick for Secretary Of State:  DAMON DUNN

The HolyCoast pick for Controller:  TONY STRICKLAND

The HolyCoast pick for Treasurer:  MIMI WALTERS

The HolyCoast pick for Attorney General:  JOHN EASTMAN

The HolyCoast pick for Insurance Commissioner:  BRIAN FITZGERALD  
I took another look after I was reminded of Villines' role in pushing a huge tax increase.

The HolyCoast pick for Congress, 42nd District:  LEO MCGROARTY 

The HolyCoast pick for School Superintendent:  LARRY ACEVES

The HolyCoast pick for Orange County Sheriff:  BILL HUNT

CALIFORNIA BALLOT PROPOSITION

As always there are a bunch of contentious ballot propositions in this primary:

PROPOSITION 13 - YES

Just seems like a good idea.

PROPOSITION 14 - NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!

This measure was put on the ballot by the governor and legislature to buy off Abel Maldonado's vote for a huge tax increase.  Maldonado is a moderate who can't win a statewide GOP primary against a conservative opponent, so he demanded an open primary initiative to give him a chance to one day become governor.

This measure does away with party-only primaries.  Instead of each party choosing a candidate for the general election from their party, all candidates from all parties will be lumped together in one primary with only the top two vote getters going on to the general.  This is being sold to Californians as a way to "fix Sacramento", and "increase participation" but will in fact eliminate all the minor parties from the general election and may leave the voters with choices in some races between two members of the same party.  The law also allows candidates to hide their party affiliation on the primary ballot so you may not even know which party a candidate supports.  There's more info here.  Conservatives and liberals should be equally angry about this since this measure attempts to marginalize anyone who's not a moderate, and members of third parties, such as Libertarians, Green, Peace and Freedom, Constitution...etc. must realize they will never again see a member of their party on the general election ballot if this passes.

PROPOSITION 15 - NO, NO, HELL NO!!

This measure would take your tax dollars and use them to fund political campaigns in California.  No thanks.

PROPOSITION 16 - NO

The electricity companies seem to be pouring an awful lot of money into supporting this thing.  That makes me suspicious of their motives.  This is basically being done by PG&E go protect their market share in Northern California.

PROPOSITION 17 - NO

Looks like a disguised insurance rate hike to me.

CITY OF MISSION VIEJO MEASURE D - YES

This measure would take the responsibility from major zoning changes away from the City Council and give it to the voters.  While I have a friend on the City Council who opposes this measure, I have to support it.  I believe it's the best way to remove the influence of developers who would transform parcels in our fine city into high density apartments or other housing that would increase traffic and possibly crime rates.  This city was master planned very well and I don't want developer money screwing that up.

There you have it.  Don't forget to vote on June 8 (unless you don't agree with me in which case you should stay home).

HolyCoast California Primary Picks

One week from today will be the California primary, so it's time for me to make my picks.  For the most part I'll be working off the Republican ballot, though I will make one Democrat pick.

GOVERNOR

I don't think I've ever been as conflicted between two GOP candidates as I have been on this one.  The choice is between Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO who rarely ever participated in the political system by voting and hasn't held elective office before, and Steve Poizner, the current Insurance Commissioner and former Silicon Valley businessman.  I met Poizner at a small campaign event on May 8th, and while he talks a good game, there's a deal killer in his background that's going to be a problem.

Many conservatives are concerned that Whitman will be another version of the Governator, someone who's never been in elective office and will cave to the left when the pressure's on.  I don't know if that't true or not.  It is true that she's the candidate the Dems are most afraid of.  Right now Democrat organizations are pouring money into pro-Poizner ads, not because they like his politics, but because they think he'll be easier for Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown to beat in November.  That's a big concern because California cannot afford a liberal legislature and Jerry Brown as governor.  Meg may not be Ronald Reagan, but if she can beat Brown we're still ahead of the game.

The deal killer I mentioned before is Poizner's support for Al Gore in 2000 and his contributions to the Florida recount.  That to me is the unpardonable sin.  I don't care what he's saying today, anyone who worked to overturn the election results in Florida 2000 is not going to get my support.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Governor:  MEG WHITMAN


SENATE - GOP

This is another tough race with three candidates: Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell.  I can write Campbell out of the equation immediately because of his continuous support for higher taxes and bigger government.  Classic RINO.  We've already got a liberal in office, the GOP doesn't need to send another one.  Polls suggest he's the only one that can beat Boxer, but I think that will change after the primary.

Carly Fiorina's past somewhat matches Meg Whitmans - CEO of big business who rarely even voted.  Her politics are somewhat unknown - there's fear she could be another RINO masquerading as a conservative.  Hard to say, but given that her general election opponent Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer is borderline communist, even a mystery guest would be an improvement.

Chuck DeVore is the classic conservative, hitting all the right issues.  He also can't win.  He's trailing Fiorina by a huge margin and would probably trail Boxer by even more.  While my heart supports DeVore, it would be a guaranteed loser in November.

Therefore, the HolyCoast pick for Senator on the GOP ticket:  CARLY FIORINA


SENATOR - DEM

I have no interest in seeing a Democrat elected Senator again, but Boxer does have an opponent in the primary that she and the media have tried hard to ignore - journalist Mickey Kaus.  Mickey's a smart guy and certainly far more centrist than Boxer.  That's why I'm going to make a Dem pick.

The HolyCoast pick for Senator on the DEM ticket:  MICKEY KAUS


Some of the rest of these I'll do quickly:

The HolyCoast pick for Lt. Governor:  SAM AANESTAD

The HolyCoast pick for Secretary Of State:  DAMON DUNN

The HolyCoast pick for Controller:  TONY STRICKLAND

The HolyCoast pick for Treasurer:  MIMI WALTERS

The HolyCoast pick for Attorney General:  JOHN EASTMAN

The HolyCoast pick for Insurance Commissioner:  MIKE VILLINES BRIAN FITZGERALD  
I took another look after I was reminded of Villines' role in pushing a huge tax increase.

The HolyCoast pick for Congress, 42nd District:  GARY MILLER LEO MCGROARTY This and comments below, changed my mind.

The HolyCoast pick for School Superintendent:  LARRY ACEVES

The HolyCoast pick for Orange County Sheriff:  BILL HUNT

CALIFORNIA BALLOT PROPOSITION

As always there are a bunch of contentious ballot propositions in this primary:

PROPOSITION 13 - YES

Just seems like a good idea.

PROPOSITION 14 - NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!

This measure was put on the ballot by the governor and legislature to buy off Abel Maldonado's vote for a huge tax increase.  Maldonado is a moderate who can't win a statewide GOP primary against a conservative opponent, so he demanded an open primary initiative to give him a chance to one day become governor.

This measure does away with party-only primaries.  Instead of each party choosing a candidate for the general election from their party, all candidates from all parties will be lumped together in one primary with only the top two vote getters going on to the general.  This is being sold to Californians as a way to "fix Sacramento", and "increase participation" but will in fact eliminate all the minor parties from the general election and may leave the voters with choices in some races between two members of the same party.  The law also allows candidates to hide their party affiliation on the primary ballot so you may not even know which party a candidate supports.  There's more info here.  Conservatives and liberals should be equally angry about this since this measure attempts to marginalize anyone who's not a moderate, and members of third parties, such as Libertarians, Green, Peace and Freedom, Constitution...etc. must realize they will never again see a member of their party on the general election ballot if this passes.

PROPOSITION 15 - 

NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!

This measure would take your tax dollars and use them to fund political campaigns in California.  No thanks.

PROPOSITION 16 - NO

The electricity companies seem to be pouring an awful lot of money into supporting this thing.  That makes me suspicious of their motives.

PROPOSITION 17 - NO

Looks like a disguised insurance rate hike to me.

CITY OF MISSION VIEJO MEASURE D - YES

This measure would take the responsibility from major zoning changes away from the City Council and give it to the voters.  While I have a friend on the City Council who opposes this measure, I have to support it.  I believe it's the best way to remove the influence of developers who would transform parcels in our fine city into high density apartments or other housing that would increase traffic and possibly crime rates.  This city was master planned very well and I don't want developer money screwing that up.

There you have it.  Don't forget to vote on June 8.

Whitman Has Big Lead Over Poizner

At least in this poll:

A new USC/Los Angeles Timesl in California confirms that Meg Whitman (R) holds a solid 24 point lead over Steve Poizner (R) in the Republican primary for governor, 53% to 29%.

Meanwhile, Jerry Brown (D) has a six point lead over Whitman in the general election match up, 44% to 38%.

I'll do my California primary picks on Tuesday, June 1.

Democrats Helping Poizner in CA Governor's Race

What does this say about the GOP primary?

If Steve Poizner upsets Meg Whitman in the GOP side of the June 8 governor's primary, he can thank Democrats.

The California Democratic Party and major labor unions have joined Poizner in attacking Whitman. The CDP is spending $1.8 million on its anti-Whitman television ad and the California Labor Federation has deployed 25,000 volunteers to campaign against Whitman.

CDP and big labor think expected Democratic nominee Jerry Brown will have an easier time beating Poizner. Indeed, Brown leads Poizner 45 percent to 32 percent, while his lead over Whitman is a narrower 42 percent to 37 percent, according to the latest poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Officials with the Democratic Party and with unions have not said the strategy is to help Poizner, simply stating that they want to help counter Whitman's big head start in campaign advertising. But it's no secret they would rather face Poizner than Whitman.

"They'd prefer Steve Poizner because he's moved too far to the right" and would have a difficult time appealing to middle-of-the-road Californians in the general election, said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP strategist who now handicaps races with his Target Book.

There's also Whitman's huge wealth to contend with.

"I think Steve Poizner is the easier candidate to run against for a couple of reasons – not the least of which is that Meg Whitman has already spent $64 million of her own money and is willing to spend another $200 million," Assembly Speaker John Perez , a Democrat, told MSNBC.

Given Poizner's past support for an awful lot of liberal positions it wouldn't surprise me if some of this support has to do with him being a better Dem alternative for governor should California reject Jerry Brown's comeback attempt.

Whitman Leading, Senate Race Tied

Things are tightening up in the big California primary races:

GOP governor candidate Meg Whitman's once-huge lead has shrunk to single digits, while Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are deadlocked in the Republican race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Whitman leads fellow Republican Steve Poizner 38 percent to 29 percent among likely voters in the June 8 GOP primary, a dramatic drop from the 61 percent to 11 percent lead she posted in the March PPIC poll. Undecided voters account for 31 percent.

"After being written off by so-called experts, we are in striking distance, and our job over these final weeks is to convince the undecided voters that Steve Poizner is the right candidate," said Poizner spokesman Jarrod Agen. "They've been hearing about Whitman for many months now, but they are not sold on her."

While Whitman's TV advertising campaign was in full swing by the time of the March poll, Poizner started advertising afterward. Shifting poll numbers indicate success in his message approach.

In one recent poll Poizner was down by only two, and that has been reflected in Whitman's new advertising push.

Over on the Senate side things are even tighter:

In the GOP primary to determine who will challenge Boxer, Fiorina is polling at 25 percent and Campbell at 23, virtually unchanged from PPIC's March poll. Chuck DeVore is at 16 percent, doubling his numbers in the past two months. But 36 percent remain undecided.

"I think the governor's race, because of all the money and attention devoted to it, has overshadowed the Senate primary,'' said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president.

Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO, is the only candidate currently on broadcast television. Her campaign spokeswoman, Julie Soderlund, said this poll "smells like a trend that is moving in Carly's favor'' despite there being virtually no movement.

Campbell spokesman James Fisfis said the poll shows the public has not yet fully engaged in the race.

"Right now, we're holding our own,'' he said, adding that DeVore's gains "show that conservatives are engaged and nobody else is.''

DeVore, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Express, is "part of a national phenomenon but has a special resonance within California,'' said DeVore spokesman Joshua Trevino.

In general election matchups, Boxer leads Fiorina 48 percent to 39 percent, leads Campbell 46 percent to 40 percent, and leads DeVore 50 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.

I've seen lots of Carly Fiorina ads, but I don't think I've yet seen an TV spot for Tom Campbell or Chuck DeVore.

The primary is June 8th which means TV will be littered with ads until then.

LA Mayor Villaraigosa Makes Petulant, Stupid Sports Bet With Phoenix

He's immature, no question about it:

He (Mayor Villaraigosa) offers to make a wager with Mayor Gordon, stipulating the following terms:

"Should the Suns prevail, we will humbly accept ownership of "American's Toughest Sheriff," Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County. Perhaps a stint in Los Angeles would teach him that you cannot deduce immigration status simply by looking at a person.

"Should the Lakers be victorious, we will deliver to you both Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman, Republican candidates for Governor of California, currently battling for supremacy on the issue of illegal immigration. Perhaps some time in Arizona would show them both that being governor isn't always all it's cracked up to be.

"Additionally, should the Lakers ultimately win, we will send a group of students to Dodger Stadium to behold the other great sports franchise in Los Angeles. Similarly, should the Suns best the Lakers, we call on Phoenix to treat a group of students to cheer on the Diamondbacks."

What a moron.

Cheney Endorses Meg Whitman for California Governor

The race for California governor between Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner has featured a collection of ads in which each candidate calls the other a liberal.  Odds are there's some truth behind both campaign's advertising.

I saw Steve Poizner in person a week ago and liked what I heard, but I've also heard a lot of things that are troubling. Poizner has closed from 50 points down to only 2 down, so it's a real horse race. Frankly, I'm still conflicted about this race.

Today former Vice President and conservative superstar Dick Cheney offers his endorsement in the race:

I am proud to endorse Meg Whitman to be the next governor of California. Meg has the conservative values, leadership skills and vision to reform state government and usher in an era

of strong economic growth and prosperity.

There is a lot at stake in this election. What happens in California has a direct bearing on the health of the U.S. economy. America cannot afford to have its largest state teetering on the edge of financial collapse. California needs a proven executive who has the mettle to stand up to the entrenched special interests in Sacramento and cut spending.

Meg is a leader who will not shy away from confronting the public employee unions. She has put pension reform at the center of her agenda. She is a firm believer in the power of tax cuts to strengthen small businesses and create jobs. She knows that welfare must be a temporary hand-up and not a way of life. She is committed to local control of education, and she has a strong and practical approach to securing the border and addressing the problems associated with illegal immigration.

Meg's conservatism is rooted in the optimism that people can achieve great things if government doesn't stand in their way. As I have come to know her better, I have been reminded of another great leader from California. As a young congressman from Wyoming in the 1980s, I was an unabashed foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution. I saw an inspirational leader lift the nation out of the malaise left behind by Jimmy Carter's liberalism. I believe Meg Whitman can do for California what Ronald Reagan did for America.

What's interesting about this endorsment op-ed is Cheney spends more time telling us why we should vote AGAINST Poizner than why we should vote FOR Whitman:

In 2000, when I first ran on the national ticket with President George W. Bush, Mr. Poizner endorsed Vice President Al Gore. With the election hanging in the balance, he donated $10,000 to the Gore-Lieberman Recount Committee in Florida. In 2004, during the Bush-Cheney reelection campaign, Mr. Poizner, who was then a candidate for the state Assembly, opposed the tax cuts that were the centerpiece of our economic recovery plan.

He also broke ranks with our party on national security and the "war on terror." Mr. Poizner

opposed the war in Iraq. To amplify his opposition to the national security policies of the Bush administration, he invited Richard Clarke to campaign for him in California.

At the time, Mr. Clarke, a former staff member of the National Security Council, was making the rounds on cable television to market a book that blamed the Bush administration for mismanaging the terrorist threat and enabling the Sept. 11 attacks against our nation. There was a clear purpose behind the Clarke campaign visit. Mr. Poizner was breaking from the Bush-Cheney ticket and our policy goals because he thought it helped his political ambitions.

The intervening years have proven that the resolve of the Bush administration and the courage of our soldiers on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan kept America safe at a perilous time in our nation's history.

While I have doubts about the authenticity of the conservative voice that Mr. Poizner now speaks in, there is no disputing that Meg Whitman is the Republican the Democrats fear the most in this election. The unions and the Democratic donors invested in Attorney General Jerry Brown's success have already started to run misleading ads attacking Meg Whitman. This is a clear admission on their part that Meg is the toughest Republican candidate for governor. The Democrats know that Meg can beat them in November, and, more importantly, they know she will put an end to the failed status quo in Sacramento as governor.

I encourage my fellow Republicans to vote for Meg Whitman. She is a woman of courage, a leader with conviction, a true fiscal conservative and champion of the values we hold dearest.

I don't doubt that the Dems are more afraid of Whitman than they are of Poizner. Whitman has hundreds of millions of dollars of her own money she can throw into the race, and her real world experience running eBay plays well against Jerry Brown's life in politics where he never had to make a payroll or create a job. In this economy Whitman's experience is definitely an asset.

Poizner is talking a good game these days, but I'm skeptical that either of these candidates are as conservative as they portray themselves.  I'm afraid they could both be as liberal as they portray each other.

GOP Governor Candidates Try to Out-Conservative Each Other

And as Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner try to convince you that they're good conservatives, they sling the liberal label at each other in increasingly hyperbolic ads:

As a central theme of Meg Whitman's many commercials attacking Steve Poizner, her Republican rival for governor, she has told voters that he helped to undercut Proposition 13, the 1978 ballot initiative that has kept property taxes in check.

"Steve Poizner joined with liberal unions to weaken Prop. 13 and raise your property taxes," an announcer proclaims in one of a series of Whitman ads telling voters why they "can't trust Steve."

Poizner, the state insurance commissioner, has shot back with his own ads in which he pillories his opponent as "liberal Meg Whitman."

"Whitman campaigned and contributed to Barbara Boxer. Did you?" intones a narrator in one Poizner ad. This is followed moments later by a clip of Whitman saying, "What I need to do is let Californians know what I stand for" and then a woman's voice responding, "Oh, we know."

With Poizner apparently shrinking Whitman's once-formidable lead — according to private polls by both Democrats and Republicans — the barrage of ads has not slowed.

An examination of the facts shows that most of the charges on both sides are puffed up. The candidates' profiles aren't so different. Each has acted in the past as a fairly moderate, pragmatic Republican who supported Democrats while trying to make money in the business world.

Although both campaigns exaggerate, Whitman's ads appear to stretch the truth more.

For example, in several commercials she erroneously accuses Poizner of increasing the Department of Insurance budget by 14% since taking over in January 2007; but her analysis includes a period before Poizner was in office and omits more recent, lower budget estimates.

Counting only the period in which Poizner was in office, the increase is nearly 9%, almost all of it from legally required surcharges that are mostly disbursed to local prosecutors and over which he has no control. Poizner has cut his budget recently, but some of the reductions were ordered by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Whitman's reference to Poizner undermining Proposition 13 involves $193,000 that Poizner gave in 2000 to support Proposition 39, which made it easier for voters to approve school construction bonds supported by property taxes. The measure reduced the approval threshold from two-thirds of those voting to 55%.

Whitman, the former chief of EBay, says in her ads that Poizner's support of that initiative is a reason voters shouldn't trust him. But she trusted former Gov. Pete Wilson, the honorary chairman of the Proposition 39 effort, enough to make him her campaign chairman. And she has refused to disavow Wilson's own tax increases as governor.

It's not just the liberal labels that can be a concern to conservative voters like myself, but a history on the part of both candidates in support Democrats and liberal causes:

Poizner, whose ads say he offers "new conservative solutions," has changed his own stands noticeably since he lost an Assembly race in a largely Democratic Silicon Valley district in 2004, when his own news releases noted that he'd been called "the left's Republican." His commercials liken Whitman now to moderate Republican Schwarzenegger. But Schwarzenegger stumped for Poizner in 2004. Poizner also criticizes Whitman for supporting taxpayer-funded abortion, which he previously supported.

In 2004, Poizner said he'd been a moderate Republican his entire life, referred to himself as a "maverick" who would take on his own party and refused to say whether he planned to vote for President George W. Bush for a second term.

Like Whitman, Poizner has aided Democrats. He donated $11,000 attempting to elect Al Gore president in 2000 and gave $10,000 to the Democratic National Committee that year, in a period when his company, SnapTrack, had obtained U.S. government patents and was seeking more. He gave $2,000 to U.S. Sen. John Kerry in 2001.

Both Republicans, who have donated to their own party members as well, have explanations for helping Democrats. Poizner blames his wife, Carol, a Democrat, though checks were written in his name. Whitman said Boxer was helping on technology legislation but did nothing else right, although Whitman was quoted in a 2003 news release while at EBay praising the senator as "a courageous leader."

Certainly neither could be called "movement conservatives", conservatives who have been committed to those principles all along the way. No movement conservative would support Al Gore, Barbara Boxer, tax hikes or abortion rights under any circumstances.

Consequently, California Republicans are faced once again with one of those "lesser of two evils" decisions. I'm leaning toward Poizner based on what I heard from him and his supporters at the rally on Saturday, but with candidates like this you can just never be sure what they'll do once in office.  It's not a comfortable position for conservative voters.

Poizner Closes to Within 2

On Saturday I attended the Orange County kick-off for Steve Poizer's campaign for Governor of California. It was somewhat underwhelming given that only about 100 people attended, but the candidate was impressive and he's apparently getting the attention of California Republicans (from Political Wire):

A new SurveyUSA poll in California shows Meg Whitman's (R) once formidable lead in the Republican race for governor collapsing. 

Whitman now leads Steve Poizner (R) by just two points, 39% to 37%.

Less than three weeks ago, Whitman's lead in a similar poll was 22 points.

Almost no one believed a memo put out by Poizner's pollster last week that showed Whitman's lead at just 10 points, 38% to 28%.

Meg Whitman has spent something like $50 million bashing Poizner every which way from Sunday, but her efforts don't seem to be paying off. Back when Poizner wasn't fighting back she had her way with him, but now that he's fully in the game (and he said Saturday that his plan had been to wait until the voters were paying attention - hence the late kick-off) she's dropping like a stone.

I think the attack which is having the greatest effect is the comparison between Whitman and Gov. Schwarzenneger.  California voters don't care much for Ahnold these days and if there's the slightest chance that she could be another Governator, that's just not gonna fly in California.  I think there's a genuine concern among conservatives that she isn't one of them and once in power will be played by the left and won't be able to govern the state the way she could run eBay.  She also has no elected office experience.

Poizner is currently the Insurance Commissioner and has some baggage of his own to deal with.  The most potent attack on him has involved Prop 13, the sacred ballot proposition that has saved the homes of millions of Californians who might have been taxed out of their houses.  Poizner stated unequivocal support for Prop 13 and the 2/3 voting requirement to raise taxes when I saw him on Saturday.  He'll have to be able to convince older voters that he really means it.  People on fixed incomes are the most vulnerable to higher property taxes.

It looks like the race is finally underway in earnest.

Steve Poizner Rally in Laguna Hills

Well, I attended my first official campaign rally featuring a statewide candidate and it wasn't quite what I expected. It was the Orange County Kick-off for Steve Poizner for Governor. Keep in mind the primary election is only a month away, so it seemed a little late for a kick-off, but apparently that's the campaign plan. Wait until the voters are starting to pay close attention and flood the zone.

I was expecting a large event in a big ballroom, but found the parking lot almost empty when I got there and maybe 20 or so people in a small ballroom.  The crowd grew a bit, but was still surprisingly small for a county kick-off.

There were several local politicos who spoke before the candidate, including this Villa Park councilwoman who acted as the emcee.

Poizner spoke without notes for maybe 20 minutes including taking a few questions.

The crowd grew to about 100-125 in the relatively small area for the rally.

Poizner seemed to hit all the right conservative notes on issues like illegal immigration (he wants to cut off all State funding of benefits for illegals), taxes (10% cuts in personal income tax/50% cut in capital gains), 10th Amendment stuff (such as demanding the State have control over its own natural resources), Prop 13 (he said he is strongly in favor if it, including the 2/3rds voting requirement for raising taxes) and abortion (cutting off all government funding, though he didn't make a blanket statement about banning the barbaric practice).

He took a few questions from the voters.

And took a little time to press the flesh as they set up a phone bank operation in the room.

I liked what I heard, but I'm still not ready to endorse anyone. Meg Whitman worries me in that she appears to be another Arnold Schwarzenegger, too squishy on conservative issues and more likely to side with Democrats in order to achieve "bipartisanship", which we all know is defined these days as "going along with what Democrats want".

More research is needed before I can really sort the two candidates out.

Poizner on Stage

Poizner seems to be hitting all the right conservative notes. Illegal immigration, taxes, 10th Amendment stuff, etc.

Steve Poizner Campaign Event Today

Despite having followed and covered politics for years, I don't think I've ever actually attended a campaign event for a specific candidate.  The closest I've probably ever come is Tea Party rallies.

I'm not making any sort of endorsement, but I'm going to attend the Steve Poizner for Governor event in Laguna Hills this afternoon.  Since it's free and they conveniently put it in The Hills Hotel which is less than a mile from my front door it's hard to pass up.

Poizner, the current Insurance Commissioner, is running against Meg Whitman, an incredibly well financed (with her own money) moderate Republican whose politics reminds me of a female Arnold Schwarzenegger.  That's not good.  I'm interested to hear what Poizner has to say, and I'd like to get a feel for a campaign event like this.  I'll try to have some photos up later.

If you're in South Orange County and want to attend, you can click on the link above for the hotel location.  The event runs from 1 to 2:30 pm.